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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

NoSnowATL said:
Faster vs slower. Who will win out? cant beat against the east movement.
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Icon, Euro, and AI got that west movement going on. And they don't seem to be moving away from it yet. GFS and CMC are quite stubborn with the east pull. As usual, we gotta wait to see where the center starts and how strong.
 
1036 MB high over the NE as we reach the secondary mid-oct peak is a strong signal for something to develop in the west carib/sw atl. I discount the cat4 south of bermuda as its too far NE already

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EURO AI at 12Z has the cane hitting a little further east and no stall


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What is interesting is it has the cat4 on the gfs that is south of bermuda much further south heading west toward the lesser antilles and unlikely to recurve with that big high building over the NE



1726702625901.png
 
Although there’s a general alleyway northward into the Gulf here, the overall steering pattern next week is highly uncertain with this big rex block developing over the east-central part of N America.

Regardless, there’s a very good chance whatever forms out of this is going to be gigantic because of its origins out of the monsoon gyre. The large initial disturbance coupled with low background pressures and the very moist environment around it will strongly favor radial expansion of the storm over intensification to a large degree. That along with land interaction might be its biggest impediments to further intensification/development. Not necessarily a good thing lol

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Webberweather53 said:
Although there’s a general alleyway northward into the Gulf here, the overall steering pattern next week is highly uncertain with this big rex block developing over the east-central part of N America.

Regardless, there’s a very good chance whatever forms out of this is going to be gigantic because of its origins out of the monsoon gyre. The large initial disturbance coupled with low background pressures and the very moist environment around it will strongly favor radial expansion of the storm over intensification to a large degree. That along with land interaction might be its biggest impediments to further intensification/development. Not necessarily a good thing lol

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I think it depends on how fast it moves as well
 
Webberweather53 said:
Although there’s a general alleyway northward into the Gulf here, the overall steering pattern next week is highly uncertain with this big rex block developing over the east-central part of N America.

Regardless, there’s a very good chance whatever forms out of this is going to be gigantic because of its origins out of the monsoon gyre. The large initial disturbance coupled with low background pressures and the very moist environment around it will strongly favor radial expansion of the storm over intensification to a large degree. That along with land interaction might be its biggest impediments to further intensification/development. Not necessarily a good thing lol

View attachment 151266
Click to expand...

Why do I automatically open a Google tab every time you post? 😂
Thanks Eric
 
Mike's weather page posted this. It's really not as much an unknown as we think....choose one of the lines. Weather history repeats itself.

"Historical map here from NOAA showing storms and where they went and where they started. This from 1949-2023 and for the last week of September. www.spaghettimodels.com"

FB_IMG_1726705885468.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Although there’s a general alleyway northward into the Gulf here, the overall steering pattern next week is highly uncertain with this big rex block developing over the east-central part of N America.

Regardless, there’s a very good chance whatever forms out of this is going to be gigantic because of its origins out of the monsoon gyre. The large initial disturbance coupled with low background pressures and the very moist environment around it will strongly favor radial expansion of the storm over intensification to a large degree. That along with land interaction might be its biggest impediments to further intensification/development. Not necessarily a good thing lol

View attachment 151266
Click to expand...
Interpretation: it's gonna be a bad ass storm.....lol
 
. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

two_atl_7d0 (1).png
 
0Z GEFS says that the 0Z GFS is a major W outlier as just about all members recurve in the E Gulf. This is about the most threatening GEFS to W FL from Big Bend S of any run yet.

0Z UKMET has no TC through 168.

IMG_0284.png
 
. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico
through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

two_atl_7d0 (2).png
 
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