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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Big swing east on the 12z GFS. Doesn’t mean much right now but I guess more in line with what the ensembles have been showing IMG_0181.png
 
Henry2326 said:
Mike's weather page posted this. It's really not as much an unknown as we think....choose one of the lines. Weather history repeats itself.

"Historical map here from NOAA showing storms and where they went and where they started. This from 1949-2023 and for the last week of September. www.spaghettimodels.com"

View attachment 151270
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That doesn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence with the track.
 
It is back on the UKMET (12Z) with it becoming a TC at 168 (12Z on 9/26) in NW Caribbean 150 miles SW of W tip of Cuba:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.1N 86.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2024 168 20.1N 86.0W 1004 27
 
The ensemble paints 2 pictures. A faster set that scoot across Southern Florida and then into the SE coast and a much larger group that moves NNE into the big bend area moving more northerly than the op run
 
Webberweather53 said:
More likely to be a big sloppy storm
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Well I'm confused with your post.
Quote: "Regardless, there’s a very good chance whatever forms out of this is going to be gigantic because of its origins out of the monsoon gyre."
I guess you needed to add sloppy to that description to tone it down.
 
Henry2326 said:
Well I'm confused with your post.
Quote: "Regardless, there’s a very good chance whatever forms out of this is going to be gigantic because of its origins out of the monsoon gyre."
I guess you needed to add sloppy to that description to tone it down.
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Gigantic doesnt necessarily mean strong. It might be so large it cant deepen alot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hard to get a storm into Texas in this kind of pattern. There’s a reason they don’t see a whole lot after mid September.
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I honestly don’t remember many storms at all going into Texas after mid September. I’m sure there’s been some but nothing really stands out. It seems after that point if a storm gets into the GOM, it gets pulled east 9 out of 10 times
 
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