I lived in Mobile. Grew up there. Fredrick was not fun for sure. Pine tree split our house in two. Was living in the Ham for Ivan and it was not fun either even that far north. Don't want to see something like either of those.
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
weaker and staying south looks to be a trend but the ensembles say different.
lexxnchloe
Member
Nothing on ICON as we burn thru Sept
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS takes us thu the first 16 days of Sept with nothing 67/72/83/92 all look likely now.
lexxnchloe
Member
"Given this wave’s current broad/somewhat anemic state and the unfavorable looking SLP pattern ahead that signals fast trade winds in the central Caribbean “Graveyard”, I doubt we see substantial development/organization from this system until the Western Caribbean at the earliest."
The SA heat low is at cat5 strength this season which is why i am very confident the west carib will be dead in OCT.
lexxnchloe
Member
One lesson from this season is SST's mean nothing on seasonal activity.
lexxnchloe
Member
He makes a really good point here, Every year now we have the exact same pattern. Massive east coast trof. Besides 25/12/6 looking ridiculous now, CSU once again saying there was a greater than average chance of hurricanes hitting the east coast was ridiculous
Brent
Member
One run of the gfs and the season is over again I see
For one thing the orange circle has never been developing quickly anyway
For one thing the orange circle has never been developing quickly anyway
NoSnowATL
Member
Season is over
lexxnchloe
Member
Peak day
accu35
Member
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SMDH!!! @lexxnchloe is the season dead or alive????
lexxnchloe
Member
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Henry2326
Member
NHC says 40% chance in next 7 days.....
Brent
Member
To the surprise of no one it's back on the gfs
lexxnchloe
Member
And still no consistency. major to nothing over and over. Hopefully the EURO will show it
Henry2326
Member
The GFS won't be consistent until 3-4 days prior. It's just the way it's built.
For now, the takeaway is there is a high probability that we will have a major in the gulf. That's about all there is.
Also notice the majors show up on the 18z. It's been like this for awhile.
And for heavens sake, don't put any value in the specific location. It will swing all over the gulf for the next week. Same for pressure.
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Brent
Member
But the point is its way more likely something happens than not. It's September tomorrow. It's not going to be dead for long. You can't get caught up in every run
lexxnchloe
Member
