Big swing east on the 12z GFS. Doesn’t mean much right now but I guess more in line with what the ensembles have been showing 
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More likely to be a big sloppy storm
That doesn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence with the track.
So anywhere from Brownsville TX to Key West Fl. Gotcha
Hard to get a storm into Texas in this kind of pattern. There’s a reason they don’t see a whole lot after mid September.
We’re still 4-5ish days out from any sort of center forming in large, messy system. So I’d imagine the models will be all over the place.
Yeah especially when next week looks more like fall...
GFS looks like an Charley/Ian repeat. Would be a fine line between shredded cheese and strengthening Cat 4-5 monster.
It is back on the UKMET (12Z) with it becoming a TC at 168 (12Z on 9/26) in NW Caribbean 150 miles SW of W tip of Cuba:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.1N 86.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2024 168 20.1N 86.0W 1004 27
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.1N 86.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2024 168 20.1N 86.0W 1004 27
The ensemble paints 2 pictures. A faster set that scoot across Southern Florida and then into the SE coast and a much larger group that moves NNE into the big bend area moving more northerly than the op run
It's a NOAA chart.....and it wasn't meant too. No one knows the track today but the chart gives choices. They repeat over and over......
Well I'm confused with your post.
Quote: "Regardless, there’s a very good chance whatever forms out of this is going to be gigantic because of its origins out of the monsoon gyre."
I guess you needed to add sloppy to that description to tone it down.
Gigantic doesnt necessarily mean strong. It might be so large it cant deepen alot.
I guess someone needs to tell that to GFS.
I honestly don’t remember many storms at all going into Texas after mid September. I’m sure there’s been some but nothing really stands out. It seems after that point if a storm gets into the GOM, it gets pulled east 9 out of 10 times
The old JB saying, Louisiana east after sept 15th
Just throwing this out there, the last 12 runs of GFS has had storm #2 coming behind the potential storm we are waiting on. Every run it's moved further west.....too far out there to count on, but it has been consistent.
I want some of whatever these models are on.
Unhinged Monster model?
Ukmet I think. It's always been a western outlier in other storms
