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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

lexxnchloe said:
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A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend
along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form
early next week while the system moves generally northwestward
toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found
in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Shaggy said:
Hopefully since it's a hybrid at best it can utilize that and actually get a bit of wind over a larger area. Could see some widespread 40+ gusts with that gradient to its north.
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Surface low pressure "center" is few hundred miles SE of that, need this to drift SE and hook up with that, then maybe we see a named storm out of this...

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Area
 
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Actually looks better than I thought it would at this point, the MLC continues to drift SE towards the area of lower surface pressures. There is a lot going on out there and frankly it is a mess and probably does not have the kind of time it would need to become anything more than a weak named storm.
 
Downeastnc said:
Actually looks better than I thought it would at this point, the MLC continues to drift SE towards the area of lower surface pressures. There is a lot going on out there and frankly it is a mess and probably does not have the kind of time it would need to become anything more than a weak named storm.
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Looks like the crazy nam is back to being crazy for this low off the coast. Year after year the nams always go extreme during all seasons
 
Shaggy said:
Looks like the crazy nam is back to being crazy for this low off the coast. Year after year the nams always go extreme during all seasons
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1. This system could probably use its own thread imho.

2. The extratropical LLC is near 31.5N, 76.5W. Below is the latest SST map. The LLC is over 84F water in the Gulf Stream. On the progged path, it will cross water as warm as 85 in the middle of the GS. But then SSTs fall sharply to BN at the coast of the Carolinas (77-78) thanks to recent BN temps/clouds. I’d think that would help keep the storm from being too strong at landfall should it become tropical with the peak perhaps before landfall. My guess is a 995 mb TS at landfall with winds increased due to the tight gradient vs the NE US high:

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GaWx said:
1. This system could probably use its own thread imho.

2. The extratropical LLC is near 31.5N, 76.5W. Below is the latest SST map. The LLC is over 84F water in the Gulf Stream. On the progged path, it will cross water as warm as 85 in the middle of the GS. But then SSTs fall sharply to BN at the coast of the Carolinas (77-78) thanks to recent BN temps/clouds. I’d think that would help keep the storm from being too strong at landfall should it become tropical with the peak perhaps before landfall. My guess is a 995 mb TS at landfall with winds increased due to the tight gradient vs the NE US high:

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The Winds should be weak as it will be a weak system but like you said the gradient should allow this to at least perform up to expected winds. Could see an overperformer on the north side if it remains subtropical and has a larger wind field on the north side amd that gradient really packs in
 
Shaggy said:
Wouldn't be surprised if new hanover and brunswick county did if it comes in like the gfs shows. Wilmington is horrible for flooded roads.
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Ground is Saturated here in Pender, Will not take much..
Wind(s) and light rain all Day today.. (Mist & Fog)..
 
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