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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

lexxnchloe said:
Thru 294 12Z GFS says its february in the Atlantic. All sparks gone. The good news is we have had 2 fantasy canes in Sept with lots of fantasy ACE.
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I feel that you’re putting too much importance on the highly unreliable long range portion of the GFS, whether it is active or inactive. I prefer to concentrate on the various ensembles that far out due to much higher statistical credibility. Granted, I did mention the long range portion of the Euro-AIFS but that was only because 13 runs in a row have something very similar.

Meanwhile 12Z CMC has something E of the Caribbean that’s similar to prior runs (not strong but it’s got some spin) and is consistent with the timing of the Euro-AIFS if projected ahead.
 
GaWx said:
I feel that you’re putting too much importance on the highly unreliable long range portion of the GFS, whether it is active or inactive. I prefer to concentrate on the various ensembles that far out due to much higher statistical credibility. Granted, I did mention the long range portion of the Euro-AIFS but that was only because 13 runs in a row have something very similar.

Meanwhile 12Z CMC has something E of the Caribbean that’s similar to prior runs (not strong but it’s got some spin) and is consistent with the timing of the Euro-AIFS if projected ahead.
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CMC is similar to last night but i rank it well below the GFS and Euro. Lets see what the Euro shows at 240 in another hour
 
lexxnchloe said:
Tell that to the GFS CMC and Euro though the euro will be out shortly
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12Z Euro had no TC. But per last 13 Euro AIFS the crucial period for TCG may be centered around Sep 2nd, just beyond the 12Z Euro 240.
 
The gfs has two areas trying for sure by early September including one in the Gulf even by the end of next week maybe. I don't think it'll be much beyond 5 days before something at least tries to form

And yes I've heard the Euro AI is very good so far
 
Brent said:
The gfs has two areas trying for sure by early September including one in the Gulf even by the end of next week maybe. I don't think it'll be much beyond 5 days before something at least tries to form

And yes I've heard the Euro AI is very good so far
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I’d say the 18Z is about the most active GEFS for early Sep yet though not really that active for late Aug as there were a number of runs more active for then awhile back.
 
Ok...everybody happy now?? 🤣 😂🤣😂
Way too much trust in these models.
The one to trust is NHC. When they latch on, it's coming.
I have no doubt that something will happen. This dead season business is just talk. It only takes one to destroy lives. Why the hype to have so many storms? I remember Irma, Maria, and Harvey in 2017. Destroyed lives.atl-tracks-to-date-sep302017 (1).jpg


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Henry2326 said:
Euro AI 00z finished with this. Something's coming in the gulf.


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More significant from a forecasting standpoint imho is the low E of Bermuda. That originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. And by the way, the brand new 6Z has something similar, making that the 17th run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run!
 
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