• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

lexxnchloe said:
View attachment 150506
Click to expand...

Man, I hope not! I’m still waiting on a garage door threshold to be installed. I’m hoping they’ll be able to do so next week, but that’s far from a certainty as of now. Plus they need 72 hours of no rain beforehand. Don’t want another heavy rain event anytime soon at the very least! Fortunately that’s merely a low credibility GFS operational out at 300 hours.

Edit: Last 4 Euro-AI have this go across Yucatan, Bay of Campeche, and back into MX for final landfall.
 
Last edited:
NoSnowATL said:
Curve train might be warming up.
Click to expand...
I like to see the troughs dropping in to the Southeast going forward. The deeper the better to kick any tropical cyclones out in to the north Atlantic. Don't want any landfall's in FL or gulf coast.

Just like the cold air damning that keeps the severe storms to my west. It's a beautiful sight!
 
At 138 its gone on the GFS. Nothing at 150. Will be interesting if the EURO also drops it. Not at all impressive on satellite
 
I think what is happening is climatology kicked in on the models and they latched onto a very weak clump of clouds because SOMETHING HAD TO DEVELOP AT PEAK. GFS has ended any talk of an active Sept.. I think OCT will be quite dead. The SA heat low is a cat5 this year so it should rip up anything in the west carib. 67/72/83/92 still look good for the rest of 2024. If only we could skip to December and get rid of summer.


1724949247666.png
 
Last edited:
3 days ago models showed nothing at all then became very active. Some like the icon still are with this system. Relying on every model run to tell you how this will play out is a futile endeavor
lexxnchloe said:
Im going with its gone on the EURO. It was a cat5 fantasy cane though. The funny thing is its gone after wxman57 said it would develop 2 hours ago.


View attachment 150513
Click to expand...
 
Shaggy said:
3 days ago models showed nothing at all then became very active. Some like the icon still are with this system. Relying on every model run to tell you how this will play out is a futile endeavor
Click to expand...
I hope you are right. If this doesn't develop there is nothing else likely to for awhile.
 
For the 40% AEW:

12Z UKMET: still no TC on this model from this

12Z not so Crazy Uncle: coming in like Mr. Slowsky on the Comcast commercials: has a sfc low E of the Lesser Antilles at hr 99 very similar to prior runs
 
GaWx said:
For the 40% AEW:

12Z UKMET: still no TC on this model from this

12Z not so Crazy Uncle: coming in like Mr. Slowsky on the Comcast commercials: has a sfc low E of the Lesser Antilles at hr 99 very similar to prior runs
Click to expand...
1724951418408.png


Almost exactly the same as 0z


1724951852475.png
 
Last edited:
lexxnchloe said:
Looks GOM bound


View attachment 150519
Click to expand...
If it stays weak, it will probably stay in the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier model runs were showing a stronger storm near the Florida panhandle that would track up the east coast. We'll have to see how strong this disturbance gets if it develops. The odds of some development have increased slightly according to the NWS.
 
weather bubba said:
If it stays weak, it will probably stay in the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier model runs were showing a stronger storm near the Florida panhandle that would track up the east coast. We'll have to see how strong this disturbance gets if it develops. The odds of some development have increased slightly according to the NWS.
Click to expand...

Yeah if this gets into the Gulf it's gonna be problematic. We've already seen Beryl and Debby...

Weaker in the short term may not be a good thing
 
Brent said:
Yeah if this gets into the Gulf it's gonna be problematic. We've already seen Beryl and Debby...

Weaker in the short term may not be a good thing
Click to expand...
CMC has it in the SE GOM moving NW in what would be a highly favorable environment if its actually there.


1724957342161.png
 
Brent said:
Well then View attachment 150527
Click to expand...
This upcoming pattern is going to be a problem if anything develops. Stronger development or a faster earlier motion could get it OTS but anything that struggles along or is slower will likely get pushed into the Carribbean then be pulled north either side of FL
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top