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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Bham 99 said:
We shouldn't be focused so much on the MDR right now. A homegrown storm will probably form next month after some of these fronts get further south and stall. We pretty much have 60 days.
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And those can be very dangerous too. You do not need the Cape Verde storms to have a rough season. If I remember right 2005 had only a very few storms form out there, but we all know how that season turned out with Katrina and Rita along many others.
 
JHS said:
And those can be very dangerous too. You do not need the Cape Verde storms to have a rough season. If I remember right 2005 had only a very few storms form out there, but we all know how that season turned out with Katrina and Rita along many others.
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True but 2005 did have strong waves that made it across the ATL that developed later like katrina and rita. 2024 has no such waves.
 
The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 21st run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits.
 
12z ICON sits off the coast of Texas for 4 days, developing. 8/30 thru 9/1. GFS and Euro-AI also have the low off the Texas but no development yet and different timing.
ICON moving one across the MDR looks to be the same one Euro-AI has been developing the past 3 days although faster.. CMC following along also.

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Another tropical storm over Africa that will come off at 20N and poof a woof. Not to pat myself on the back for being awesome but i was the first to say this was the reason the season was a bust. Long before any Pro has. That area of low pressure north of the CV islands is a wave killer. It has been there since mid july.

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GaWx said:
So, the tropics look like they may get active again in just over a week. If so, that would mean the quiet period would end up being under 2 weeks long. Not long at all unfortunately.
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Yep.
4 runs now, ICON still likes a developing low spinning off Texas....8/31 to 9/1.
GFS now has a low moving into AL on 9/3.
EURO AI has the cane on east coast, moving thru the islands on 9/3 as a low. CMC and ICON are following.
GFS has a wave following the same path with low over SC, further west than EURO .

3 opportunities on the board for a week's time.
 
Nothing on the euro, not even a weak low at peak season. However, if you look real hard there is a big high over the NW ATL and a hint of a low forming to its south off FLA. If this cant develop at peak season in a forecasted hyper-active season then its hard to imagine sept/oct even being avg.
Couldnt be a better set up for inclose development

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In the good news dept LC holds the line 18/10/6

Many of you may have been lulled into thinking that the 2024 hurricane season was over. A rude surprise awaits, however, since the Saharan Air Layer is diminishing, the hemispheric conjoined heat ridge complex is starting to break apart, the ITCZ in Africa is flaring big time, and the polar westerlies are starting to inject cyclonic energy and greater amounts of cooler (not cold) values into lower latitudes. The La Nina episode is likely to top off at just above the moderate designation (-1.0 deg C below normal in ENSO sector 3.4), while the Gulf of Mexico and much of the open Atlantic Ocean is very warm (at least 79 deg F with only minor areas of upwelling. This is not, and never was meant to be, a "Super La Nina with record hurricanes". One-parameter forecasting has no place in a business where fear can cause those living in the subtropical zones and affected coastlines to lose confidence in weather prediction at critical times. I will hold to my original 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major cyclones seasonal call.
 
No storms, no rumors of storms on 18GFS thru peak day. There will be some interesting write ups on what went wrong starting in Oct. 5/3/1 the first half of the season and lets assume the horrid conditions let up a little and we manage another 5/3/1 explosion after sept10 10/6/2 will go down as the all time seasonal bust in forecasting history. Where oh where did my tropical season go?

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All last week Rick Knabb was yapping about when the East Pac went dead the ATL would explode. Will be interesting to see what he says tomorrow. What he fails to say is that in dead seasons its not uncommon at all for the favorable conditions to just skip the ATL.

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lexxnchloe said:
All last week Rick Knabb was yapping about when the East Pac went dead the ATL would explode. Will be interesting to see what he says tomorrow. What he fails to say is that in dead seasons its not uncommon at all for the favorable conditions to just skip the ATL.

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I doubt he’s going to say anything based on hr 384 of the GFS. Obviously it thankfully is looking like the huge numbers that were put out in seasonal forecast are less and less likely to come to fruition. However to I find just as less likely that there will be no storms in the next 2-3 weeks.
 
Chazwin said:
I doubt he’s going to say anything based on hr 384 of the GFS. Obviously it thankfully is looking like the huge numbers that were put out in seasonal forecast are less and less likely to come to fruition. However to I find just as less likely that there will be no storms in the next 2-3 weeks.
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But he said many times last week when the east pac went dead the ATL would explode. I simply posted a map of a dead east pac. And yes, it would be rather shocking if even in the deadest of dead seasons a weak quikly dissipating storm wouldnt form between aug 20 and sep 10
 
ICON continues to show sparks


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Will the GFS and EURO finally join the Icon TONITE?

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I can't remember the year but it was a slow and the it's a dead season talk was rampant until we had 7 named storms in September.
 
If anyone learns anything tracking canes it should be that anything over 5-7 days in the models needs to be taken with a grain of salt, watching ensembles and not op runs is what we should focus on....the ensembles say we will have a storm in the next 5-7 days....at this point its way more likely we see 12 storms in Sept and we see 4 storms in Sept

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ILMRoss said:
hurricanes to form in the atlantic in september, more at 11
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1. The 3 main 0Z ensembles as well as 6Z GEFS agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 23 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good for the next TCG during the first few days of Sept. even though the AI-Euro ironically abandoned its near Leeward Island TCG two days ago. If so when considering the near record warmth in many parts of the W basin, that would have the potential to be a big ACE producer. This would bear watching as it could threaten the CONUS.

2. I believe that this season will end up backloaded as well as concentrated in the W part of the basin due to less favorable conditions in the E basin due to a variety of reasons, some unknown.
 
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Thanks. Regarding this AEW on the other 12Z models:

1. GEFS: active like 6Z with this lead wave along with some members developing the followup MDR wave.

2. CMC: has a weak reflection of this same AEW at the surface (stronger than 0Z run) that moves WNW to S Bahamas at 240.

3. UKMET: no TCG

6. Euro: not out yet

Edit: That 12Z GFS H is from the same AEW as the main one discussed in recent posts.
 
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