NCSNOW
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Does this correlate to a 2010 winter as well? If so sign me up on this TC. I doubt it, but if anyone knows how it correlates to winter, not just tropics, its you. Also where would you put your finger on the La Nina Gauge for winter 24/25 as things stand now currently. Strong, Moderate, or Weak?If the GFS/Euro end up verifying well, there could be as many as 4 straight Tahiti SLPs of 1019+ during Aug 19-22. I’d be very surprised if there isn’t at least one. Keep in mind that higher Tahiti pressure is favored during developing La Niña. There hasn’t been even a single day of 1019+ since 2010!
Tahiti SLP 1019+ since 1991:
1019.55: 1994 (Aug)
1019.1, 1019.44: 1996 (June)
1019.3: 1998 (Aug)
1019.28: 1999 (Aug)
1019.24: 2010 (July)
1019.44, 1019.61, 1019.78, 1019.59, 1019.14: 2010 (Sep)
1019.05: 2010 (Sep)
-So, there have been only 13 days of Tahiti SLP of 1019+ over the last 33 years with the record high being 1019.78 (Sep of 2010).
- This shows there’s been only one time when there were more than two days in a row of that (Sep of 2010). That was during the longest streak on record, 5 days.
- This shows that all were during June-Sep with a mean date of Aug. That makes sense because that’s during their winter, when sfc cold high pressures are at their highest SLP of the year.
- There is a decent correlation between high Tahiti SLP periods and an active Atlantic tropics mainly 1-3 weeks afterward. That jibes well with the idea of an active Atlantic sometime between very late this month and mid Sep.