lexxnchloe
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18z gfs carbon copy of 12z for the weekend possible storm but it ends like this

Looking at the 6z GFS as well as the 0z EURO. the system later this week looks like either a hybrid or even just a non-tropical low. The GFS has the center coming in just south of CHS while the heaviest convection is over NC, while the EURO is even more displaced than that. There is a fairly stout 1032 High just off the New England coast that sets up a tight pressure gradient, and would likely set up a rough weekend for potential coastal flooding for much of the coast from NC north to NJ…we will be very close to the full Harvest moon next weekend.
Looking at the 6z GFS as well as the 0z EURO. the system later this week looks like either a hybrid or even just a non-tropical low. The GFS has the center coming in just south of CHS while the heaviest convection is over NC, while the EURO is even more displaced than that. There is a fairly stout 1032 High just off the New England coast that sets up a tight pressure gradient, and would likely set up a rough weekend for potential coastal flooding for much of the coast from NC north to NJ…we will be very close to the full Harvest moon next weekend.
But it’s still a hybrid system at best as is the ICON I just looked at. Though the ICON has a bit more convection around the center. My guess is at this point is that the center is just not going to be over water long enough to develop full tropical characteristics.The GFS is a bit of an improvement as it stays over water longer
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Thats the key. Stay near the gulf stream longerBut it’s still a hybrid system at best as is the ICON I just looked at. Though the ICON has a bit more convection around the center. My guess is at this point is that the center is just not going to be over water long enough to develop full tropical characteristics.
Still a non tropical system either way. Most of the moisture would be well north of the spin so this would be a nice quick rain event for the mid Atlantic.Thats the key. Stay near the gulf stream longer
Still would have to worry about some coastal flooding and gusty winds on the mid-Atlantic coast with that high to the north and the astronomical high tidesStill a non tropical system either way. Most of the moisture would be well north of the spin so this would be a nice quick rain event for the mid Atlantic.
Yep and parts of NC still could get 1-3in of rain out if it too if we get lucky.Still would have to worry about some coastal flooding and gusty winds on the mid-Atlantic coast with that high to the north and the astronomical high tides
Already working apparently, the ukie fell for it.....You guys are going to wishcast this right ots
So it looks like there is fairly decent agreement that something is going to form off the coast along the stalled front layer this week, and that there is going to be a high to the north to block its escape. The models appear to be more organized closer to the center than what we’ve been seeing, but still looks to be a hybrid type system. The 12z CMC is probably the most interesting model as it shows a 994MB low moving inland near CHS and then taking a path about 50 miles or so to the west of Gaston’s path in 2004… it still show a 996mb low over the NC southern Piedmont.
Is that from the gfs? If so its a bit stronger and east. I will be happy with a sub 1000mb low to end the season. Gets it down to 997. Trending stronger.I mean this is at least a little interesting, bigvhigh to the north gonna make it windy, would not take much to get decent TS force winds over central and Eastern NC
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Oh indeed. I just thought it had a very similar evolution to GastonToo bad the CMC is garbage.
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It goes goes directly NW from there with a landfall near MB. From there it goes inland into the Piedmont before going north. Actually not too far off the CMC… just a landfall a bit further north.Is that from the gfs? If so it’s a bit stronger and east. I will be happy with a sub 1000mb low to end the season. Gets it down to 997. Trending stronger.
I would like to see it get down to 993mb which can be a minimal caneIt goes goes directly NW from there with a landfall near MB. From there it goes inland into the Piedmont before going north. Actually not too far off the CMC… just a landfall a bit further north.
Your a sic puppy..I would like to see it get down to 993mb which can be a minimal cane
That’s looks like my drawings in kindergarten. A lot of variables for 5-6 daysStill not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....
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Yeah really the key is the placement of that high. It’s stout enough that it cuts off the escape OTS for anything that forms. Also that pressure gradient is going to be very tight… it’s the type of set up that could produce widespread tropical storm force winds gust well inland for the eastern 2/3rds of NC and of course significant coastal flooding… especially with the Harvest Moon closing in.Still not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....
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Euro only goes out to 90hrs but its a bit better defined and stronger.Yeah really the key is the placement of that high. It’s stout enough that it cuts off the escape OTS for anything that forms. Also that pressure gradient is going to be very tight… it’s the type of set up that could produce widespread tropical storm force winds gust well inland for the eastern 2/3rds of NC and of course significant coastal flooding… especially with the Harvest Moon closing in.
Yeah, I would say that’s the best initial organization we’ve seen on a model run so far.Euro only goes out to 90hrs but its a bit better defined and stronger.
Good callYou guys are going to wishcast this right ots
It’ll be interesting to see if the 6z GFS is just an outlier or the start of a trend. It’s the first model run we’ve seen pull the high east faster and it gives the storm an escape to move NE and scrapes Cape Hatteras and Cope Cod without making a landfall. Interestingly it’s also the strongest one we’ve seen on any model run so far bringing to pressure down to 986mb.Good call
I think the Ukmet does this, it's been east last couple of runs and there are a few EPS members that are eastIt’ll be interesting to see if the 6z GFS is just an outlier or the start of a trend. It’s the first model run we’ve seen pull the high east faster and it gives the storm an escape to move NE and scrapes Cape Hatteras and Cope Cod without making a landfall. Interestingly it’s also the strongest one we’ve seen on any model run so far bringing to pressure down to 986mb.
The DR hurricane would have a better threat if that other lowndoesnt develop crushing the ridge.Whopping changes on the 12z GFS. There is a second chance for a strom to delevop off the se coast abd a najor hurricane south of DR
The major south of dr still recurves but its far more west than 0z
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The weekend low is weaker but more consolidated and makes landfall again
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Yes it wouldThe DR hurricane would have a better threat if that other lowndoesnt develop crushing the ridge.
Will have to see if it gets any stronger in future runs18z gfs would been a pretty decent system E of US1 also interesting to see the 18z euro jump pretty significantly toward other modeling since it had been burying the low south for a while. View attachment 137073