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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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metwannabe said:
Trough saves again but tons of time for many things to happen
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Only because it was considerably slower than 06z

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
within the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over
the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
8:00 am

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
Downeastnc said:
Both GFS and Euro have it missing wide right, usually in this range thatss a write off, will need to miss a trough or two to make it to the east coast.

06Z GFS

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If my short term memory is correct I believe Franklin went further west than all the early runs had him. Most had him going east of Bermuda.
 
NoSnowATL said:
She OTS from the looks of it right now. She might get close but she will need to stay close/ over the the LAs to not fill the tug.
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Agree 100%. Basic climo Saya recurve, add the March of troughs and systems in the mid Atlantic breaker up the ridges only increases that chance. The ensembles shifted to a wider range at 06z. The game remains the same we watch wait and track for the next 10 days
 
Shaggy said:
Agree 100%. Basic climo Saya recurve, add the March of troughs and systems in the mid Atlantic breaker up the ridges only increases that chance. The ensembles shifted to a wider range at 06z. The game remains the same we watch wait and track for the next 10 days
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It either is further south misses the trough and heads into GOM (which seems less likely since nothing showing that) or it recurve. Now does it recurve east of Bermuda, split the uprights or scrape the coast. Timing obviously critical, how quick it develops how far west it gets, the usual but I certainly don't see anything to push NW and plow into the SE. But plenty of time to watch
 
metwannabe said:
It either is further south misses the trough and heads into GOM (which seems less likely since nothing showing that) or it recurve. Now does it recurve east of Bermuda, split the uprights or scrape the coast. Timing obviously critical, how quick it develops how far west it gets, the usual but I certainly don't see anything to push NW and plow into the SE. But plenty of time to watch
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Looking at the 0z modeling there are a few ways to get a cut off into the area but it would take having to shuffle the mean patterns in the ensembles around pretty significantly.
 
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