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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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lexxnchloe said:
High pressure over the NE can lead to lower pressures in the sw atlantic
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Interesting. Normally the phase “ridge over troubled waters” implies a large expansive Atlantic ridge and a Cape Verde threat to the mainland US. That model he posted does not show that.
 
Just random thoughts and I may be way off but if severe weather, which used to occur in April/May seems to be occurring later in the year here recently. Could we see a shift in peak tropical activity to later than September 10th-11th?
 
Arcc said:
Interesting. Normally the phase “ridge over troubled waters” implies a large expansive Atlantic ridge and a Cape Verde threat to the mainland US. That model he posted does not show that.
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Not to speak for JB but i think he means that a large high in the NW atlantic will cause lower pressures in the sw atlantic. It doesnt mean that there will be an expansive ridge everywhere. He is referring to inclose development, not MDR systems
 
lexxnchloe said:
Not to speak for JB but i think he means that a large high in the NW atlantic will cause lower pressures in the sw atlantic. It doesnt mean that there will be an expansive ridge everywhere. He is referring to inclose development, not MDR systems
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I think you’re right… he used the term back in 2018 right before Michael developed as a home grown storm.
 
The gfs and icon have this as well though not all in agreement on intensity and placement


ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png



icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png



gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_52.png


The GFS would be by far the most concerning. Since all 3 agree on a hurricane developing in this time frame and all 3 saying it will be strong i think we will see another hurricane forming. Where and how strong is TBD
 
BHS1975 said:
GFS with shots over the bow.


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Obviously the 6z op run is just eye candy but the fact the Euro has been showing a storm in its long range at least shows some level of consensus that the tropics may not go on hiatus like some were suggesting.
 

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Shaggy said:
Obviously the 6z op run is just eye candy but the fact the Euro has been showing a storm in its long range at least shows some level of consensus that the tropics may not go on hiatus like some were suggesting.
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Icon has it in about the same place as the 0z. Idalais remains are more west


icon_mslp_pcpn_atl_40.png
 
If we get a system heading west across the Atlantic, I believe a trough probably does eventually spare the EC but, one of the reasons models have it getting closer now is probably the fact that Idalia is finally getting out of the picture. Long way to go but *could* have a nice long tracker coming up next week
 
metwannabe said:
If we get a system heading west across the Atlantic, I believe a trough probably does eventually spare the EC but, one of the reasons models have it getting closer now is probably the fact that Idalia is finally getting out of the picture. Long way to go but *could* have a nice long tracker coming up next week
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If we get the kind of predominate ridging that the LR models are showing over the next couple of weeks, I like our chances of getting hit again. Your concern about a trough kicking it out is well-founded, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
If we get the kind of predominate ridging that the LR models are showing over the next couple of weeks, I like our chances of getting hit again. Your concern about a trough kicking it out is well-founded, though.
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Yeah I'd actually lean towards an EC threat but it's so far out, hard to imagine a trough doesn't pass through at some point this time of year. Now will it be timed just right, who knows..... honestly my gut tells me we aren't done with TCs for this year for whatever that's worth lol
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I'd actually lean towards an EC threat but it's so far out, hard to imagine a trough doesn't pass through at some point this time of year. Now will it be timed just right, who knows..... honestly my gut tells me we aren't done with TCs for this year for whatever that's worth lol
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Yeah plenty of bath water left.


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