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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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iGRXY said:
IF and that's a big if it makes it to the Gulf, expect some type of intensification to take place. We see it every year models have to catch up to the intensity, especially once it makes it to Gulf waters.
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Seems like all the models has it going somewhere in south Florida. We need the rain very bad so I’m kinda wish casting I guess.
 
NHC has gone 50% for our potential GOM system for next week. Models still all over the place but this most likely will be the first real trackable system for the SE

two_atl_7d0.png
 
metwannabe said:
NHC has gone 50% for our potential GOM system for next week. Models still all over the place but this most likely will be the first real trackable system for the SE

two_atl_7d0.png
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With the El Niño, this is the origin area I’ve felt all season would be where to look for threats to the southeast. Definitely has a plenty of warm water to work with.
 
metwannabe said:
NHC has gone 50% for our potential GOM system for next week. Models still all over the place but this most likely will be the first real trackable system for the SE

two_atl_7d0.png
Click to expand...

From what I see, it's all in the interaction with a trough. GFS has been more aggressive with the trough on previous runs, kind of absorbing the moisture. Other modeling has it getting stronger and pushed out.
 
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has developed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea just off the northeastern coast of Honduras, producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba,
and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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20/70. NHC threw the GFS out and just going with the Euro/ICON/CMC/UKMET camp.
 
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Arcc said:
I’d watch this one closely with this look if it verified.

View attachment 136411
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I agree. Let’s remember that the Euro has often underestimated the strength of tropical systems before they develop and then catch up after it’s organized into a low. I can still remember a few years ago when the Euro was showing what was to become Michael never getting past a weak category 1.
 
Still think it crosses the peninsula and it’s OTS. Would love a good soaking rain but currently not looking good!
 
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Some slow development of this system is then
possible late next week while the system moves westward across the
Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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New lemon.
 
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