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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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18z gfs carbon copy of 12z for the weekend possible storm but it ends like this


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Brent said:
NHC is talking about it

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Looking at the 6z GFS as well as the 0z EURO. the system later this week looks like either a hybrid or even just a non-tropical low. The GFS has the center coming in just south of CHS while the heaviest convection is over NC, while the EURO is even more displaced than that. There is a fairly stout 1032 High just off the New England coast that sets up a tight pressure gradient, and would likely set up a rough weekend for potential coastal flooding for much of the coast from NC north to NJ…we will be very close to the full Harvest moon next weekend.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the 6z GFS as well as the 0z EURO. the system later this week looks like either a hybrid or even just a non-tropical low. The GFS has the center coming in just south of CHS while the heaviest convection is over NC, while the EURO is even more displaced than that. There is a fairly stout 1032 High just off the New England coast that sets up a tight pressure gradient, and would likely set up a rough weekend for potential coastal flooding for much of the coast from NC north to NJ…we will be very close to the full Harvest moon next weekend.
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lexxnchloe said:
The GFS is a bit of an improvement as it stays over water longer

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But it’s still a hybrid system at best as is the ICON I just looked at. Though the ICON has a bit more convection around the center. My guess is at this point is that the center is just not going to be over water long enough to develop full tropical characteristics.
 
Chazwin said:
But it’s still a hybrid system at best as is the ICON I just looked at. Though the ICON has a bit more convection around the center. My guess is at this point is that the center is just not going to be over water long enough to develop full tropical characteristics.
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Thats the key. Stay near the gulf stream longer
 
NoSnowATL said:
Still a non tropical system either way. Most of the moisture would be well north of the spin so this would be a nice quick rain event for the mid Atlantic.
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Still would have to worry about some coastal flooding and gusty winds on the mid-Atlantic coast with that high to the north and the astronomical high tides
 
So it looks like there is fairly decent agreement that something is going to form off the coast along the stalled front layer this week, and that there is going to be a high to the north to block its escape. The models appear to be more organized closer to the center than what we’ve been seeing, but still looks to be a hybrid type system. The 12z CMC is probably the most interesting model as it shows a 994MB low moving inland near CHS and then taking a path about 50 miles or so to the west of Gaston’s path in 2004… it still show a 996mb low over the NC southern Piedmont.
 
Chazwin said:
So it looks like there is fairly decent agreement that something is going to form off the coast along the stalled front layer this week, and that there is going to be a high to the north to block its escape. The models appear to be more organized closer to the center than what we’ve been seeing, but still looks to be a hybrid type system. The 12z CMC is probably the most interesting model as it shows a 994MB low moving inland near CHS and then taking a path about 50 miles or so to the west of Gaston’s path in 2004… it still show a 996mb low over the NC southern Piedmont.
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Too bad the CMC is garbage.


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I mean this is at least a little interesting, bigvhigh to the north gonna make it windy, would not take much to get decent TS force winds over central and Eastern NC

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lexxnchloe said:
Is that from the gfs? If so it’s a bit stronger and east. I will be happy with a sub 1000mb low to end the season. Gets it down to 997. Trending stronger.
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It goes goes directly NW from there with a landfall near MB. From there it goes inland into the Piedmont before going north. Actually not too far off the CMC… just a landfall a bit further north.
 
Chazwin said:
It goes goes directly NW from there with a landfall near MB. From there it goes inland into the Piedmont before going north. Actually not too far off the CMC… just a landfall a bit further north.
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I would like to see it get down to 993mb which can be a minimal cane
 
Still not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....

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Downeastnc said:
Still not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....

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That’s looks like my drawings in kindergarten. A lot of variables for 5-6 days
 
Downeastnc said:
Still not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....

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Yeah really the key is the placement of that high. It’s stout enough that it cuts off the escape OTS for anything that forms. Also that pressure gradient is going to be very tight… it’s the type of set up that could produce widespread tropical storm force winds gust well inland for the eastern 2/3rds of NC and of course significant coastal flooding… especially with the Harvest Moon closing in.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah really the key is the placement of that high. It’s stout enough that it cuts off the escape OTS for anything that forms. Also that pressure gradient is going to be very tight… it’s the type of set up that could produce widespread tropical storm force winds gust well inland for the eastern 2/3rds of NC and of course significant coastal flooding… especially with the Harvest Moon closing in.
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Euro only goes out to 90hrs but its a bit better defined and stronger.
 
Shaggy said:
Good call
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It’ll be interesting to see if the 6z GFS is just an outlier or the start of a trend. It’s the first model run we’ve seen pull the high east faster and it gives the storm an escape to move NE and scrapes Cape Hatteras and Cope Cod without making a landfall. Interestingly it’s also the strongest one we’ve seen on any model run so far bringing to pressure down to 986mb.
 
Ensembles still pretty all over the place...considering this is 4ish days aways at this point. Heck on most models the low does not even consolidate until Friday, this means the system has less than 24 hrs to be whatever its going to be before the models have it over NC, or just east...the real trend to look for is for the models to form this quicker giving it more time to organize assuming of course there is no east trend.

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Chazwin said:
It’ll be interesting to see if the 6z GFS is just an outlier or the start of a trend. It’s the first model run we’ve seen pull the high east faster and it gives the storm an escape to move NE and scrapes Cape Hatteras and Cope Cod without making a landfall. Interestingly it’s also the strongest one we’ve seen on any model run so far bringing to pressure down to 986mb.
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I think the Ukmet does this, it's been east last couple of runs and there are a few EPS members that are east
 
Whopping changes on the 12z GFS. There is a second chance for a strom to delevop off the se coast abd a najor hurricane south of DR

The major south of dr still recurves but its far more west than O6Z






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The weekend low is weaker but more consolidated and makes landfall again

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lexxnchloe said:
Whopping changes on the 12z GFS. There is a second chance for a strom to delevop off the se coast abd a najor hurricane south of DR

The major south of dr still recurves but its far more west than 0z







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The weekend low is weaker but more consolidated and makes landfall again

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The DR hurricane would have a better threat if that other lowndoesnt develop crushing the ridge.
 
18z gfs would been a pretty decent system E of US1 also interesting to see the 18z euro jump pretty significantly toward other modeling since it had been burying the low south for a while. gfs_mslp_wind_seus_fh66-90.gif
 
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