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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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Much further west again

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Then it gets blocked and ends up here 4 days later with another storm on the way

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Neither system showing up on the 6z GFS so far. Only a very weak system back near Africa at 324.
 
Pretty big shift west with what may eventually be Nigel on the 12z Euro, still curves before threatening EC but this run shows another potential threat to the NE (way out there in lala land however)

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lexxnchloe said:
Euro 0z last night

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12z today well SW

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What's the point of this post? Seriously there is post you commented on, with a gif showing this exact thing, you're dang near spamming the site with all these images you post and your wishcasting ?
 
metwannabe said:
What's the point of this post? Seriously there is post you commented on, with a gif showing this exact thing, you're dang near spamming the site with all these images you post and your wishcasting ?
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The point is the GFS has margot hanging around which pulls nigel up and out while the euro says margot is gone.
 
This guy is right in line with what we been discussing some. The Caribbean is super juiced up and the ole Hazel type tracks/ trof configurations could re-appear this fall opening a window.

I agree that it is fortuitous that no tropical cyclone has yet been able to take advantage of the low Carib. shear. However, there are signs that the pattern may begin to favor tropical development in the eastern/central Carib in the last 7-10 days of Sep


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Derek Ortt

@DerekOrtt
·
Sep 11
Replying to @WeatherProf and @philklotzbach
I'd say that the normal niño upper height gradient between the EPAC and Atlantic is not present as the Atlantic appears slightly warmer than the Pacific. Just happy no storm has been able to take advantage of the low Caribbean shear
 
I was going thru some hurricane history and found this. Based on what this says it created alot of havoc for a cane with a highest gust on land of 72 mph

AUG 1944

Hurricane Three[edit]​

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
DurationJuly 30 – August 4
Peak intensity80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min); 985 mbar (hPa)
A tropical wave organized into a tropical storm about 135 mi (217 km) east of Cockburn Town in the Turks and Caicos Islands around 12:00 UTC on July 30.[6] The newly formed system intensified on a west-northwest course parallel to the Bahamas, attaining hurricane strength by 00:00 UTC on August 1. From there, it curved toward the north before making landfall on Oak Island, North Carolina, with peak winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) at 23:00 UTC. The system weakened as it progressed through the Mid-Atlantic and into the northwestern Atlantic, and it was last considered a tropical depression around 06:00 UTC on August 4 about 105 mi (169 km) east of Nantucket.[2]

Despite the storm's small size, it produced wind gusts of 72 mph (116 km/h) in Wilmington, North Carolina, where the hurricane unroofed many houses, felled communication lines, shattered glass windows, and uprooted hundreds of trees. Throughout Carolina Beach and Wrightsville Beach, an unusually high tide—combined with waves perhaps as large as 30 ft (9.1 m)—demolished several cottages and homes, or otherwise swept the structures off their foundations. The former city suffered a disastrous hit as its boardwalk was destroyed, while in Wrightsville Beach, local police estimated that the water reached 18 ft (5.5 m) by its city hall. Two fishing piers were destroyed in each city.[10] Crops sustained catastrophic loss throughout coastal beach counties. Rainfall was moderate, reaching 3–5 in (76–127 mm) across eastern North Carolina, with a maximum storm-total amount of 7.7 in (200 mm) in Cheltenham, Maryland.[11] Damage reached $2 million. As the cyclone exited into the Atlantic, it produced a gust of 38 mph (61 km/h) in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Though no fatalities occurred along the storm's path due to mass evacuations,[6] there were a few people who suffered serious injuries.[10]
 
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GFS has switched up some and takes the system next week west into FL, the CMC has it closed off now and moves it north over eastern NC, the Euro and the Ukie both seem to try to do something and have a piece of the very large gyre break off and head north over the OBX but never closes anything off. Its weak sauce in any case....

Still there have been a few storms that formed like this that have been surprises....of course there was Diana which frankly NC got very lucky on, I think it was Gaston in the early 2000's that made it to a cane right as it came into SC then had a nasty little core all the way up to VA over central SC and NC, it literally formed right offshore. Hurricane Arthur was another one...so theses can sometimes form and be a issue but all signs point to this not being one of those cases
 
The next big thing out in the MDR after Nigel goes major on Euro and GFS, the GFS has it stopping and turning ENE way out north of the eastern Lesser's. So the parade of massive canes continue.....and they continue to all show fish tracks....
 
Downeastnc said:
GFS has switched up some and takes the system next week west into FL, the CMC has it closed off now and moves it north over eastern NC, the Euro and the Ukie both seem to try to do something and have a piece of the very large gyre break off and head north over the OBX but never closes anything off. Its weak sauce in any case....

Still there have been a few storms that formed like this that have been surprises....of course there was Diana which frankly NC got very lucky on, I think it was Gaston in the early 2000's that made it to a cane right as it came into SC then had a nasty little core all the way up to VA over central SC and NC, it literally formed right offshore. Hurricane Arthur was another one...so theses can sometimes form and be a issue but all signs point to this not being one of those cases
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Improvement on the ICON.

icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_48.png
 
Downeastnc said:
GFS has switched up some and takes the system next week west into FL, the CMC has it closed off now and moves it north over eastern NC, the Euro and the Ukie both seem to try to do something and have a piece of the very large gyre break off and head north over the OBX but never closes anything off. Its weak sauce in any case....

Still there have been a few storms that formed like this that have been surprises....of course there was Diana which frankly NC got very lucky on, I think it was Gaston in the early 2000's that made it to a cane right as it came into SC then had a nasty little core all the way up to VA over central SC and NC, it literally formed right offshore. Hurricane Arthur was another one...so theses can sometimes form and be a issue but all signs point to this not being one of those cases
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It was Gaston in 2004 that developed and made landfall as a hurricane coming ashore. Actually even intensified just after landfall as an eye appeared on IR imagery after landfall briefly.
 
SD said:
Not a bad look to spin something to offshore late this week but there's a huge list of possibilities of what could happen with it
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Set up is ok but even with a high blocking it doesnt sit long enough over warm water.
 
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