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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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lexxnchloe said:
Much less fish looking moving NW and the high will have a chance to build eastward.


gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png
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Keep us updated much as possible
 
Hardest recurve in history.

Goes from here and rockets straight north


gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_40.png


To here.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png



I have to think this is an aberration
 
GFS keeps the wave train going

gfs_mslp_pcpn_eatl_37.png



Will it rocket north like before with a decent high to its north?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_39.png




This time it enters the carib

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_41.png



gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_48.png
 
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Looks to be headed to the gom with that big high to the north. It was tangled with cuba and hispaniola and weaked alot

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_59.png
 
For orientation this is the second storm from last night that trailed the cane that ended up off the SW FLA coast. The gfs has dropped the SW coast cane
12z today at 324

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_54.png



at 360 it has been moving wnw

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png



This is where it was at 354 at 06z so it has moved much more west

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_59.png
 
Someone please teach him what a gif trend is.

Also, this looks wrong, way wrong! its reason number 388 not to post maps that far out. Seems like this is the new norm on social media and vines.

1694334694977.png
 
Any potential system later on would have to avoid the weaknesses from Margot and Lee. You can see the 0z euro turns it north in the Margot weakness. If it stays weaker west it can get under the weakness and make it toward the EC similar to gfs. I think this has a better shot at the SE coast than Lee but if it starts gaining latitude in the C Atl it'll recurve in the weaknesses or get picked up by the wave breaks on the eastern side of the big Canadian ridge. Also the gfs didn't steam roll into the US bc of these wave breaks it took the escape route E toward the trough not W toward the ULL similar to Joaquin, something to keep in mind since that cutoff around D8+ likely has legs with the big block over Can
 
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Keep these images in mind when talking about hugo vs the gfs hurricane. Hugo didn't have an outlet to the NE the gfs system does. If for some reason you want a hurricane hit that ridge over canada needs to be east of its location on the gfs. To not recurve a hurricane up the beaches or offshore the center of the blocking ridge has to be over SE canada/NE UScompday.gAOCsEWJB2.gif
gfs_z500a_nhem_53 (1).png
 
SD said:
Keep these images in mind when talking about hugo vs the gfs hurricane. Hugo didn't have an outlet to the NE the gfs system does. If for some reason you want a hurricane hit that ridge over canada needs to be east of its location on the gfs. To not recurve a hurricane up the beaches or offshore the center of the blocking ridge has to be over SE canada/NE USView attachment 136959
View attachment 136961
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As usual its thread the needle time for NC but its been consistent on the GFS.
 
SD said:
Any potential system later on would have to avoid the weaknesses from Margot and Lee. You can see the 0z euro turns it north in the Margot weakness. If it stays weaker west it can get under the weakness and make it toward the EC similar to gfs. I think this has a better shot at the SE coast than Lee but if it starts gaining latitude in the C Atl it'll recurve in the weaknesses or get picked up by the wave breaks on the eastern side of the big Canadian ridge. Also the gfs didn't steam roll into the US bc of these wave breaks it took the escape route E toward the trough not W toward the ULL similar to Joaquin, something to keep in mind since that cutoff around D8+ likely has legs with the big block over Can
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That ULL low and potential capture is attention getting, if it's still there as time goes on. Certainly a signal for a system moving across the Atlantic, probably last CV system as a *possible* threat. Attention then gonna turn to Caribbean and GOM
 
metwannabe said:
That ULL low and potential capture is attention getting, if it's still there as time goes on. Certainly a signal for a system moving across the Atlantic, probably last CV system as a *possible* threat. Attention then gonna turn to Caribbean and GOM
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Yeah I'd start watching the carribbean/gom once we get past this potential cutoff 9/25-10/10. If we start dropping troughs in the west and see the ridge over E Canada/E US the prospects of something in the Carib/Gom go way up
 
DAMN IT!!! JB must have been reading my posts here. I hope he hasnt jinxed it !!




I did notice the pattern is similar. JB is right. Time to wait and see.
 
Downeastnc said:
Its out in lala land anyways there will be a lot of big changes run to run, all we need to look for every run is if the GFS still has the system.
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Not a lot of seasonal support for anything to stay west. Constant troughs heading into the fall will keep our chances low. It's a 95' redux with the steady stream.of recurvers.

Best chance is gonna have to be an opal or hazel type evolution
 
Shaggy said:
Not a lot of seasonal support for anything to stay west. Constant troughs heading into the fall will keep our chances low. It's a 95' redux with the steady stream.of recurvers.

Best chance is gonna have to be an opal or hazel type evolution
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Was Hazel like a negative tilt?


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BHS1975 said:
Was Hazel like a negative tilt?


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Good stuff right here in this link and shows just how this was the perfect or as they mention, worse case scenario, set up

Was Hazel North Carolina’s Worst-Case Hurricane? - North Carolina State Climate Office

This is the final post in our "Stormy Summer" series looking back at some memorable hurricane anniversaries occurring in 2019. No discussion about North Carolina's significant historical hurricanes is complete without including Hazel, which hit the state 65 years ago today. In terms of...
climate.ncsu.edu climate.ncsu.edu
 
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