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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

I can't remember, but isnt' the rule of thumb West of 70 while south of 20 is typically bad news for U.S.

Yeah thats another benchmark the post Webber makes highlights the "Herbert" box but generally once a storm gets into the SW Bahamas it has to have some easterly component to track to miss the US...same with 60W 20N ( box B ) typically a storm north of 20N when it crosses 60W has a very high chance of curving OTS etc....so if it tracks south of 60/20 then ends up in Herberts Box in the SW Bahamas the SE coast then the chances of a US landfall or near miss is fairly good.
 
Yeah thats another benchmark the post Webber makes highlights the "Herbert" box but generally once a storm gets into the SW Bahamas it has to have some easterly component to track to miss the US...same with 60W 20N ( box B ) typically a storm north of 20N when it crosses 60W has a very high chance of curving OTS etc....so if it tracks south of 60/20 then ends up in Herberts Box in the SW Bahamas the SE coast then the chances of a US landfall or near miss is fairly good.

That rule meant nothing with the canes that have hit NC recently.


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icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png
Here's that other low I've been seeing
 
That rule meant nothing with the canes that have hit NC recently.


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I dunno outside of Hurricane Florence none of the tracks have been that extreme or north of those boxes....Dorian and Matthew's tracks were not unusual really......Florence was literally a once in 50 yr type track....those rules generally apply to storms passing north of those boxes missing the east coast which is a proven benchmark......
 
I dunno outside of Hurricane Florence none of the tracks have been that extreme or north of those boxes....Dorian and Matthew's tracks were not unusual really......Florence was literally a once in 50 yr type track....those rules generally apply to storms passing north of those boxes missing the east coast which is a proven benchmark......

The ridging seems to be stronger and lasting longer into fall.


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An ominous look is good because it will change. Hopefully out to sea in a few days or no development.
 
The blocking pattern this year will be very similar to that of 2004’s Hurricane season, leading to an increased probability of storms making landfall. This upcoming Tropical Wave definitely has the potential to threaten the East Coast.

The euro even shows a low trying to cut off over TN at the end of the run.


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