GFS finally folds to euro and others with main develop out of pacific then north to BOC. EURO landfall a little more East of Texas.
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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Code Red for development on our system that could come out of the pacific into the BOC.
Code Orange in the Atlantic
12z GEFS looks active to say the least. With most having a tc nearing the gulf coast around hr198
Brent
Member
Euro weak but into TX LA border region
Here’s a better look into the GEFS members
12z EPS. Looks like the GEFS is looking more towards the FL panhandle/Alabama/Mississippi for this threat. Whereas the EPS is looking more towards the TX/LA boarder. The GEFS is on the stronger end as well where as the EPS is weaker. My guess is more towards the GEFS due to the conditions in the gulf in terms of strength however I would go with more of a EPS/GEFS blend in terms of track. This is very much subject to change in the coming week.
The 00z EPS had a higher number of ts/hurricanes than previous runs. This could be its hat tilt towards the GEFS.
Hats off to the euro for Bertha and now this one too. GFS absolutely garbage first two storms of the season already, trying to form a major in the Caribbean while EURO has been consistent on Pacific energy being the main thing to watch.
6z EPS
accu35
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further north?
I don’t know about further north but compared to the 00z it looked like less support. However since the 6z only goes out to day 6 I wouldn’t trust much of what it says. All I would take from it is that it still shows support for some sort of disturbance. The 12z will definitely show us more so I wouldn’t say it’s any less of a threat until we see consistent runs showing otherwise.
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The ICON had a very concerning scenario. It had this as a ts in the bay of Campeche for over a day before getting the pressure down to 999. With its trajectory it would send it into the heart of the GOM going really slow for probably a few days as the hp in the east lifts out. I don’t like this look and a scenario like this should be watched for, I saw some EPS members clinging on to this type of scenario.
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Strength is usually 90% off until the storm actually forms or in this case survives into the BOC after being inland. It’s not the models being wrong there just isn’t a system there yet and formation (how big or small) can influence strength among many other things. A bigger system would likely be weaker and take longer.
CMC looking kinda like the ICON. But this is hr96 and the ICON was at hr180. These are pretty big time difference for a system like this.
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Also the GFS pretty much dropped this threat last run. However it is back this run and probably a weak ts.
