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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

smast16 said:
I can't remember, but isnt' the rule of thumb West of 70 while south of 20 is typically bad news for U.S.
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Yeah thats another benchmark the post Webber makes highlights the "Herbert" box but generally once a storm gets into the SW Bahamas it has to have some easterly component to track to miss the US...same with 60W 20N ( box B ) typically a storm north of 20N when it crosses 60W has a very high chance of curving OTS etc....so if it tracks south of 60/20 then ends up in Herberts Box in the SW Bahamas the SE coast then the chances of a US landfall or near miss is fairly good.
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah thats another benchmark the post Webber makes highlights the "Herbert" box but generally once a storm gets into the SW Bahamas it has to have some easterly component to track to miss the US...same with 60W 20N ( box B ) typically a storm north of 20N when it crosses 60W has a very high chance of curving OTS etc....so if it tracks south of 60/20 then ends up in Herberts Box in the SW Bahamas the SE coast then the chances of a US landfall or near miss is fairly good.
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That rule meant nothing with the canes that have hit NC recently.


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icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png
Here's that other low I've been seeing
 
BHS1975 said:
That rule meant nothing with the canes that have hit NC recently.


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I dunno outside of Hurricane Florence none of the tracks have been that extreme or north of those boxes....Dorian and Matthew's tracks were not unusual really......Florence was literally a once in 50 yr type track....those rules generally apply to storms passing north of those boxes missing the east coast which is a proven benchmark......
 
Downeastnc said:
I dunno outside of Hurricane Florence none of the tracks have been that extreme or north of those boxes....Dorian and Matthew's tracks were not unusual really......Florence was literally a once in 50 yr type track....those rules generally apply to storms passing north of those boxes missing the east coast which is a proven benchmark......
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The ridging seems to be stronger and lasting longer into fall.


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An ominous look is good because it will change. Hopefully out to sea in a few days or no development.
 
Cadi40 said:
The blocking pattern this year will be very similar to that of 2004’s Hurricane season, leading to an increased probability of storms making landfall. This upcoming Tropical Wave definitely has the potential to threaten the East Coast.
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The euro even shows a low trying to cut off over TN at the end of the run.


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God it feels weird to be tracking the infamous “I” named storm in July. I don’t ever remember doing this before it feels like 2005.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
God it feels weird to be tracking the infamous “I” named storm in July. I don’t ever remember doing this before it feels like 2005.
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Even 2005 it was August

And then there was a lull mid month if we don't lull we can pull further ahead
 
Haven’t seen any mention of it here yet, but the NHC has a new area of interest to monitor for development in the coming days.


A westward-moving tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing a limited amount of shower activity.
Some slow development of this system is possible while it turns
northwestward over the western Atlantic by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.CDB77662-1204-4FF4-8195-2BB0EF425F85.png
 
Before the season if anyone had said that we would have 10 tropical systems of at least depression strength before August 1st I would have said you were crazy. Yet here we are... incredible.
 
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BHS1975 said:
Yeap just appetizers so far.


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Yep said the same thing on a couple people's post last night

It does look like a lull for a week or two but there's apparently gonna be a favorable wave around the 15th-20th which ironically is when I always consider the real season to start

Even 2005 had a lull in August before Katrina happened and the rest is history
 
Yep 0z GFS likes one of those African waves forms a major in western Caribbean before weakening in Gulf of Mexico
 
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