I believe we still have over 2 weeks for the D record Dolly is next
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A small non-tropical low pressure system located east of the Georgia coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northward overnight and be located offshore near the South Carolina-North Carolina border by Tuesday morning. Although environmental conditions are forecast to be unfavorable for any significant development, this system could briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics before it moves inland Tuesday afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could over portions of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Stewart
I don’t doubt that the chance for an active CV season is higher than normal. I just hope all of the long trackers recurve between Bermuda and the US east coast. The SE US could sure use a break, regardless of COVID.Africa has been extremely wet since the beginning of May, parts of the West African coast have been running 200-400% of normal!
In concert w/ La Nina, the above normal precip anomalies are indicative of more stronger & frequent African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and this is likely a harbinger of a very active Cape Verde hurricane season to come this season. We'll probably see many long-tracked hurricanes in August & September
That's kind of like saying grass is green. Eventually troughs become so prevalent later in the year that plenty of paths are carved open for TCs to go north.The only thing we can say for sure is over time the majority recurve overall based on climo. Too hard to link cold rainy days pulling these storms inland.