• This website or discussions about the COVID-19 virus outbreak should be taken as entertainment. For official information on how to plan and prepare, please go to The Offical CDC Homepage By Clicking Here
  • Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

BirdManDoomW

Leader of the bird cult
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
3,554
Reaction score
2,360
Location
Northwest NC
Lol no one commenting how the 12z GFS sent us another cane out of the Caribbean in the short term? What a POS of a model. No other model suggests this
 

BirdManDoomW

Leader of the bird cult
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
3,554
Reaction score
2,360
Location
Northwest NC
18z GFS would a major disaster for Guatemala that just saw 30” of rain. Good thing it’s prob wrong with formation and track.
 

Ethan80963

Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2017
Messages
1,070
Reaction score
1,181
Location
Spartanburg, SC elevation 751’ South of I-85 🙄
Lol no one commenting how the 12z GFS sent us another cane out of the Caribbean in the short term? What a POS of a model. No other model suggests this
I mean the EPS didn’t completely disagree. Still not a ton of support though. Just something to keep an eye on
8B437560-1D6C-451D-9874-89229E578B90.jpeg
0BF3A694-CCE4-41D8-92E5-F53DDF84184A.jpeg
 

Brent

Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
5,718
Reaction score
8,416
Location
Dallas Texas

BHS1975

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
2,020
Reaction score
1,338
Location
Raleigh, NC
I believe we still have over 2 weeks for the D record Dolly is next

Meanwhile the Eastern Pacific which usually builds a lead in the early season is completely dead
Probably La Nina kicking in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,135
Reaction score
25,889
Location
Charlotte, NC
Model support has been pretty lackluster but legitimately non zero with this feature. It's likely going to be the only game in town for a while plus it's the western Caribbean in June, arguably the most climatologically favored area of the basin for tropical cyclone development at this time of the year.
 

BirdManDoomW

Leader of the bird cult
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
3,554
Reaction score
2,360
Location
Northwest NC
Regardless of development, Guatemala and areas nearby could see some damage from this tropical wave after all the flooding they just had.
 

BufordWX

Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
1,229
Reaction score
2,284
Location
Buford GA
Looks like we got a new Lemon. Low chance of development though.
88CBCA46-0102-460A-AE51-77065C41544A.png
1. A well-defined tropical wave is located about 425 miles east of the
Windward Islands, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although further development is not expected due to dry air and
adverse upper-level winds, some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds
are possible across portions of the Windward Islands on Thursday
and Thursday night while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 

Tornadocane

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2019
Messages
236
Reaction score
347
Location
Hollywood, FL
I've seen worse AOIs. Convection is definitely being sheared, and it's becoming block-like. Maybe it can find a pocket.

Dry air is certainly a factor on water vapor, but I'd call this a pretty darn good environment for early June. Personally, I never like seeing dry air between a struggling PTC and the ITZC.
 

Ollie Williams

It Gon’ Rain
Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
1,727
Reaction score
4,496
Location
Burlington NC North I-85
This is new.
28432B27-5C69-4DBA-B613-9B440FA6B847.png

Code:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small non-tropical low pressure system located east of the Georgia
coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over
the Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northward overnight
and be located offshore near the South Carolina-North Carolina
border by Tuesday morning. Although environmental conditions are
forecast to be unfavorable for any significant development, this
system could briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics before
it moves inland Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,135
Reaction score
25,889
Location
Charlotte, NC
Africa has been extremely wet since the beginning of May, parts of the West African coast have been running 200-400% of normal!

In concert w/ La Nina, the above normal precip anomalies are indicative of more stronger & frequent African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and this is likely a harbinger of a very active Cape Verde hurricane season to come this season. We'll probably see many long-tracked hurricanes in August & September

 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
7,811
Reaction score
16,695
Location
SAV, GA
Africa has been extremely wet since the beginning of May, parts of the West African coast have been running 200-400% of normal!

In concert w/ La Nina, the above normal precip anomalies are indicative of more stronger & frequent African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and this is likely a harbinger of a very active Cape Verde hurricane season to come this season. We'll probably see many long-tracked hurricanes in August & September

I don’t doubt that the chance for an active CV season is higher than normal. I just hope all of the long trackers recurve between Bermuda and the US east coast. The SE US could sure use a break, regardless of COVID.
 

BirdManDoomW

Leader of the bird cult
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
3,554
Reaction score
2,360
Location
Northwest NC
If we keep getting these cutoff lows you can forget about recurves.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The only thing we can say for sure is over time the majority recurve overall based on climo. Too hard to link cold rainy days pulling these storms inland.
 

Tornadocane

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2019
Messages
236
Reaction score
347
Location
Hollywood, FL
The only thing we can say for sure is over time the majority recurve overall based on climo. Too hard to link cold rainy days pulling these storms inland.
That's kind of like saying grass is green. Eventually troughs become so prevalent later in the year that plenty of paths are carved open for TCs to go north.

What do you think this year looks like?
 

BufordWX

Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
1,229
Reaction score
2,284
Location
Buford GA
Another lemon with a low chance of development appears...
0BDF5657-6FDE-4BDB-B2E0-EE3CCEAABD7B.png
2. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of
Trinidad and Tobago are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next
couple of days before upper level winds become less conducive and
the system begins to interact with the landmass of South America.
Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds and
heavy rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago and the northeastern
coastal sections of Venezuela through the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Top