Some of the models are predicting this will become a tropical cyclone sometime next week.A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is expected to move
westward across the tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Some development of this system is possible when it reaches the
western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
From the looks of it, the EPS is much less extreme than the Euro. the CTRL is a solid dud.
So we got 1 plane down in the Virgin islands now and one plane in Hawaii both probably flying soon into the storms approaching those locations. At the moment I'm more interested in Douglas as a hurricane hasn't struck Hawaii in some time.
And theres plenty of water area for the storm to trek missing the islands.We have a Douglas thread further down but I would be shocked if Douglas didn't significantly weaken before Hawaii remember Lane and Iselle
Lane was a cat 5 300 miles from Hawaii and fell apart at one point the forecast had a hurricane just west of Honolulu and it didn't even get close to that
Iselle was supposed to make it as a hurricane from the east much like this and it was 60 mph(a record for the Big Island)
Not to say there can't be significant impact but I highly doubt it's much over a very weak hurricane just based on history
the worst hurricanes in Hawaii have come from the south(Iniki and Iwa)
I've got a real sinking feeling about this wave leaving the coast of Africa, especially if it develops east of the Lesser Antilles like most models are hinting at. It's worth noting that in the 2000s, that nearly half of all "I" named storms got retired, and nearly all of those retired I storms formed east of the Antilles.
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This wave is a total beast
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Already has a 30% chance of genesis from the NHC
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A few Euro ens have a storm in the SW Bahamas looking to go west of 75W which is the "oh crap" benchmark for the SE because once past 75W its got to go east to miss Hatteras.
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I am staying in a house on Bogue Sound Sept 3-8th if NC takes a hit it will be then....
SW Bahamas is one of my personal benchmarks, the image just updated on that site kinda ominous for the SE...
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