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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
The last time we had a long track hurricane in the Caribbean in July was 2005, just keep that in mind haha. Might have a few chances at that here
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I notice that 99l will be coming into an unfavorable environment this weekend, will it be able to restrengthen as it exits that environment?


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A whole bunch of majors on this afternoon's 12z EPS. A couple of Hugo's mixed in. Curious if anybody has the 15 day EPS spaghetti plots from Weathermodels.com? @CyclonicFury ?ezgif-5-7b63e7cb6a62.gifezgif-5-c7b3cb4c6127.gif
Here's the compilation of the minimum ensemble members:ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_ens_min-6456000.png
 
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Bham 99 said:
I have a feeling that in a two to three months we are going to wish this season did not happen even though it is fun to track at the moment.
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Yeah 2005 was fun for awhile and then...

We're still ahead on named storms as long as Gonzalo forms in the next couple of days and even Hanna is possible not counting that long range Euro storm
 
Brent said:
Yeah 2005 was fun for awhile and then...

We're still ahead on named storms as long as Gonzalo forms in the next couple of days and even Hanna is possible not counting that long range Euro storm
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Yeah my view on hurricanes have changed a lot since I moved to the coast.
 
I got a feeling that there won’t be much of any dry air to weaken any storms coming ashore this year. There has been very little if any dry air to mix out dews this year.


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Bham 99 said:
Yeah my view on hurricanes have changed a lot since I moved to the coast.
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And if you the area you live in were ever heaven forbid hit hard by a hurricane, I bet your view would change a whole lot more (well assuming you're not insane, of course) even assuming evacuation to safety during the storm and even if your home is not badly damaged due to the absolutely nasty and very depressing after effects that go on endlessly and can change life forever. And that's in a normal year without a pandemic. We really need a quiet year for landfalls as much as ever, which I remain hopeful for. We are so due a bust to the quiet side. I'd sure love to see Joe Bastardi bust very badly.
 
Not the Atlantic but the first EPAC hurricane of the season is forecast to reach Hawaii on Sunday145820_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
With the way things are looking right now there is a chance we may have at least 2 more named storms before the end of July. One being the system entering the gulf and the other developing from the wave behind Gonzalo. Crazy.
 
As @BufordWX posted in the archive, the 00z ICON takes Gonzalo towards the Yucatán Peninsula. Also notice the trailing wave is relatively strong, in line with the CMC, and a good chunk of EPS ensemble members. 4CECDBBA-2D42-4671-A1C8-46ECC9C2DC86.png
 
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is expected to move
westward across the tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Some development of this system is possible when it reaches the
western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Some of the models are predicting this will become a tropical cyclone sometime next week.
 
So we got 1 plane down in the Virgin islands now and one plane in Hawaii both probably flying soon into the storms approaching those locations. At the moment I'm more interested in Douglas as a hurricane hasn't struck Hawaii in some time.
 
ForsythSnow said:
So we got 1 plane down in the Virgin islands now and one plane in Hawaii both probably flying soon into the storms approaching those locations. At the moment I'm more interested in Douglas as a hurricane hasn't struck Hawaii in some time.
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We have a Douglas thread further down but I would be shocked if Douglas didn't significantly weaken before Hawaii remember Lane and Iselle

Lane was a cat 5 300 miles from Hawaii and fell apart at one point the forecast had a hurricane just west of Honolulu and it didn't even get close to that

Iselle was supposed to make it as a hurricane from the east much like this and it was 60 mph(a record for the Big Island)

Not to say there can't be significant impact but I highly doubt it's much over a very weak hurricane just based on history

the worst hurricanes in Hawaii have come from the south(Iniki and Iwa)
 
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Brent said:
We have a Douglas thread further down but I would be shocked if Douglas didn't significantly weaken before Hawaii remember Lane and Iselle

Lane was a cat 5 300 miles from Hawaii and fell apart at one point the forecast had a hurricane just west of Honolulu and it didn't even get close to that

Iselle was supposed to make it as a hurricane from the east much like this and it was 60 mph(a record for the Big Island)

Not to say there can't be significant impact but I highly doubt it's much over a very weak hurricane just based on history

the worst hurricanes in Hawaii have come from the south(Iniki and Iwa)
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And theres plenty of water area for the storm to trek missing the islands.
 
Has anyone else notice the low developing in the gulf right after this current gulf storm hits Texas? Gfs and icon has it
 
I've got a real sinking feeling about this wave leaving the coast of Africa, especially if it develops east of the Lesser Antilles like most models are hinting at. It's worth noting that in the 2000s, that nearly half of all "I" named storms got retired, and nearly all of those retired I storms formed east of the Antilles.

Retired_I_Atlantic_Storms_2000s_crop.png


This wave is a total beast

EdqTiT2XoAAC7Zv.png


Already has a 30% chance of genesis from the NHC

1595585659975.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've got a real sinking feeling about this wave leaving the coast of Africa, especially if it develops east of the Lesser Antilles like most models are hinting at. It's worth noting that in the 2000s, that nearly half of all "I" named storms got retired, and nearly all of those retired I storms formed east of the Antilles.

View attachment 44867


This wave is a total beast

View attachment 44868


Already has a 30% chance of genesis from the NHC

View attachment 44869
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A few Euro ens have a storm in the SW Bahamas looking to go west of 75W which is the "oh crap" benchmark for the SE because once past 75W its got to go east to miss Hatteras.

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2020072400_15844_481_216.png
 
Downeastnc said:
I am staying in a house on Bogue Sound Sept 3-8th if NC takes a hit it will be then....

SW Bahamas is one of my personal benchmarks, the image just updated on that site kinda ominous for the SE...

View attachment 44874
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Yeah you don't wanna see a storm like that go thru the hebert box this early in the season when the high is so strong
Percentage of landfalling hurricanes in NC Hebert Boxes Climate Office.png
 
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