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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

I think it would go to Texas..hopefully somewhere west. Cause the East is too wet Florida to the Carolinas.
 
18z GEFS. Members aren’t as strong as the EPS members and are farther east
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abk0710 said:
Any ideas where this could possibly end up? I know so much is up in the air, but I was just seeing!
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My guess is around the tx/la boarder as this is what the ensembles are looking like. However, like you said a lot is in the air right now so this is very much subject to change.
 
abk0710 said:
Any ideas where this could possibly end up? I know so much is up in the air, but I was just seeing!
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Texas or Mexico in this pattern. EURO has been most consistent so far...and it’s into southern Texas. I say that because the GFS was cluelessly forming a monster in the Caribbean into the eastern Gulf for this same system..which from the get go was coming from the epac (euro,uk,others).
 
abk0710 said:
What's the difference between the regular EURO and the EPS? So sorry if this is a crazy question.
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The euro is the operational model and the EPS is the euros ensembles which consists of 50 smaller models that run off the same algorithm as the euro operational but spit out different solutions. Hope this helps
 
Ethan80963 said:
The euro is the operational model and the EPS is the euros ensembles which consists of 50 smaller models that run off the same algorithm as the euro operational but spit out different solutions. Hope this helps
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just to add with that, even with the GEFS you see way more possible scenarios on the ensembles vs the op runs which can vary wildly run to run on one solution
 
Brent said:
just to add with that, even with the GEFS you see way more possible scenarios on the ensembles vs the op runs which can vary wildly run to run on one solution
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So the ensembles are more accurate? or less accurate because there is a bigger variety?
 
abk0710 said:
So the ensembles are more accurate? or less accurate because there is a bigger variety?
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the ensembles are more likely to have a correct solution, but because there's dozens of them its really impossible to say which one will verify honestly. The smallest thing can have a big impact on track and intensity especially when we don't even have an official system, for instance we don't even know for sure where the low(if one develops) would actually develop, that could play a big role in track as well. I've seen storms develop and shift majorly west and east because of where the low formed, weak storms are notorious for that especially
 
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