B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The first week of September seems to be a bad time for canes to hit NC.
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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
The first week of September seems to be a bad time for canes to hit NC.
Henry2326
Member
ICON has run with this for August 10th thru 12th on the last 5 or 6 runs.
CDC showed it a couple of times for the same time period also.
CDC showed it a couple of times for the same time period also.
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Henry2326
Member
Today, CDC has it on 12z, again for Aug 13.
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Glad to have you back Henry! I was wondering where you were.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
Thanks Ollie!
Henry2326
Member
Last 4 GFS runs like aug 18 - 20
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Brent
Member
Enjoy the lull
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Figures. We're well on our way to seeing some monsters unfortunately. September into October the Caribbean is probably going to produce one.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z Euro ensemble, along w/ the ICON, & CMC (as others mentioned) are really starting to pick up on another area of interest in the eastern Atlantic as early as this weekend into early next week. Little rest for the weary.
Henry2326
Member
18z GFS crazy about 18 thru 20th.....wow......will this be the monster?
Brent
Member
It's probably only a matter of time at this point
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The thing about getting a monster in the Gulf is there's nowhere for it to go but land.
Brent
Member
Hurricane into New Orleans this run though not nearly as intense as the 18z it's interesting to see how its consistent though...
Henry2326
Member
Eery feeling more like it.....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This looks like typical long range GFS bs, where tons of vorticity & convection propagate off South America and spin up into a TC. Glwt
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Huh, I thought the Atlantic was supposed to be taking a break?
Henry2326
Member
Tell us how you really feel about GFS....hahaha
Henry2326
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Still going up... damn
Henry2326
Member
2005
27 named storms
15 hurricanes
7 majors
ACE rating 250
IN 2005, CSU did the same in August, raising their forecast
From 15 named storms to 22
From 8 hurricanes to 9 hurricanes
From 4 majors to 5 majors
Why?
Persistent high pressure over southeastern US
Northeastward displacement and amplification of the ITCZ over the eastern Pacifc
Above average sea surface temps in the Gulf of Mexico
These factors reduced vertical shear
High pressure area steered storms into the Gulf
ENSO was in neutral phase
The loop current, typically in the Yucatan Peninsula, propagated northward, enhancing ocean heat content to all 3 hurricanes and was partially responsible for extreme intensities.
Brent
Member
modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lmao the 12z ICON develops two tropical cyclones in the eastern MDR next week
????
????
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Henry2326
Member
Geez....looks like it begins this weekend as a starting point.
Henry2326
Member
CMC has it on 13th, but loses it.
Henry2326
Member
GFS still thrilled with development in 18-20 period.....6 runs now, I think.......something trying to come across Atantic in this period also....
Henry2326
Member
EURO hanging with ICON to this spot.....scary aligned....weekend into next week...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is the threat for development I’d be more worried about. The GFS western Caribbean and Gulf crap is not only further out but just complete garbage. Never trust the LR GFS when it spins up TCs off S America convection especially when it’s alone in that solution.
Shaggy
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I suspect given the Euro ensemble support it is onto something.
Henry2326
Member
GFS coming along for the 12th, but loses it like CMC.
Shows 18-20 again too
Shows 18-20 again too
Shaggy
Member
Still showing it and it looks good down around 8-9N already. Wouldnt be surprised if that becomes an invest in the next 24-48 hours the way this year has been going so far.
Shaggy
Member
Henry2326
Member
Based on the 18z ICON, I think its the one down at 30W....and it should develop by midnight tonight....
Shaggy
Member
That was my thinking but the icon seemed a bit north on development for that system. Both areas have some spin to them it seems already.
Henry2326
Member
I see what you mean.....the ICON circle could go either way. The 30W is popping on the loop.
Shaggy
Member
Icon develops and maintains a system while the gfs develops or tries to then it appears to open back into a wave.
NoSnowATL
Member
I’ve never heard of a hurricane outbreak. Have we had one before? Just curious if that wording has been used before.
I’m probably not the one to answer this question but someone did find a map that finds matching analogs to the pattern thats set to occur. I see some worrisome years in there.