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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

ForsythSnow

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So we got 1 plane down in the Virgin islands now and one plane in Hawaii both probably flying soon into the storms approaching those locations. At the moment I'm more interested in Douglas as a hurricane hasn't struck Hawaii in some time.
 

Brent

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So we got 1 plane down in the Virgin islands now and one plane in Hawaii both probably flying soon into the storms approaching those locations. At the moment I'm more interested in Douglas as a hurricane hasn't struck Hawaii in some time.
We have a Douglas thread further down but I would be shocked if Douglas didn't significantly weaken before Hawaii remember Lane and Iselle

Lane was a cat 5 300 miles from Hawaii and fell apart at one point the forecast had a hurricane just west of Honolulu and it didn't even get close to that

Iselle was supposed to make it as a hurricane from the east much like this and it was 60 mph(a record for the Big Island)

Not to say there can't be significant impact but I highly doubt it's much over a very weak hurricane just based on history

the worst hurricanes in Hawaii have come from the south(Iniki and Iwa)
 
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Bham 99

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We have a Douglas thread further down but I would be shocked if Douglas didn't significantly weaken before Hawaii remember Lane and Iselle

Lane was a cat 5 300 miles from Hawaii and fell apart at one point the forecast had a hurricane just west of Honolulu and it didn't even get close to that

Iselle was supposed to make it as a hurricane from the east much like this and it was 60 mph(a record for the Big Island)

Not to say there can't be significant impact but I highly doubt it's much over a very weak hurricane just based on history

the worst hurricanes in Hawaii have come from the south(Iniki and Iwa)
And theres plenty of water area for the storm to trek missing the islands.
 

accu35

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Has anyone else notice the low developing in the gulf right after this current gulf storm hits Texas? Gfs and icon has it
 

Webberweather53

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I've got a real sinking feeling about this wave leaving the coast of Africa, especially if it develops east of the Lesser Antilles like most models are hinting at. It's worth noting that in the 2000s, that nearly half of all "I" named storms got retired, and nearly all of those retired I storms formed east of the Antilles.

Retired_I_Atlantic_Storms_2000s_crop.png


This wave is a total beast

EdqTiT2XoAAC7Zv.png


Already has a 30% chance of genesis from the NHC

1595585659975.png
 

Downeastnc

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I've got a real sinking feeling about this wave leaving the coast of Africa, especially if it develops east of the Lesser Antilles like most models are hinting at. It's worth noting that in the 2000s, that nearly half of all "I" named storms got retired, and nearly all of those retired I storms formed east of the Antilles.

View attachment 44867


This wave is a total beast

View attachment 44868


Already has a 30% chance of genesis from the NHC

View attachment 44869

A few Euro ens have a storm in the SW Bahamas looking to go west of 75W which is the "oh crap" benchmark for the SE because once past 75W its got to go east to miss Hatteras.

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2020072400_15844_481_216.png
 

Webberweather53

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I am staying in a house on Bogue Sound Sept 3-8th if NC takes a hit it will be then....

SW Bahamas is one of my personal benchmarks, the image just updated on that site kinda ominous for the SE...

View attachment 44874

Yeah you don't wanna see a storm like that go thru the hebert box this early in the season when the high is so strong
Percentage of landfalling hurricanes in NC Hebert Boxes Climate Office.png
 

Downeastnc

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I can't remember, but isnt' the rule of thumb West of 70 while south of 20 is typically bad news for U.S.
Yeah thats another benchmark the post Webber makes highlights the "Herbert" box but generally once a storm gets into the SW Bahamas it has to have some easterly component to track to miss the US...same with 60W 20N ( box B ) typically a storm north of 20N when it crosses 60W has a very high chance of curving OTS etc....so if it tracks south of 60/20 then ends up in Herberts Box in the SW Bahamas the SE coast then the chances of a US landfall or near miss is fairly good.
 

BHS1975

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Yeah thats another benchmark the post Webber makes highlights the "Herbert" box but generally once a storm gets into the SW Bahamas it has to have some easterly component to track to miss the US...same with 60W 20N ( box B ) typically a storm north of 20N when it crosses 60W has a very high chance of curving OTS etc....so if it tracks south of 60/20 then ends up in Herberts Box in the SW Bahamas the SE coast then the chances of a US landfall or near miss is fairly good.
That rule meant nothing with the canes that have hit NC recently.


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Downeastnc

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That rule meant nothing with the canes that have hit NC recently.


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I dunno outside of Hurricane Florence none of the tracks have been that extreme or north of those boxes....Dorian and Matthew's tracks were not unusual really......Florence was literally a once in 50 yr type track....those rules generally apply to storms passing north of those boxes missing the east coast which is a proven benchmark......
 

BHS1975

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I dunno outside of Hurricane Florence none of the tracks have been that extreme or north of those boxes....Dorian and Matthew's tracks were not unusual really......Florence was literally a once in 50 yr type track....those rules generally apply to storms passing north of those boxes missing the east coast which is a proven benchmark......
The ridging seems to be stronger and lasting longer into fall.


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BirdManDoomW

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An ominous look is good because it will change. Hopefully out to sea in a few days or no development.
 

BHS1975

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The blocking pattern this year will be very similar to that of 2004’s Hurricane season, leading to an increased probability of storms making landfall. This upcoming Tropical Wave definitely has the potential to threaten the East Coast.
The euro even shows a low trying to cut off over TN at the end of the run.


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