Henry2326
Member
ICON 12z doing that double thing again.....
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Better enjoy it while it lasts.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I also plotted deep-layer wind shear anomalies using the ERA-5, and they're quite alarming. 4th lowest June-July wind shear on record in the Atlantic Main Development Region and the wind shear in the eastern Atlantic is at record lows.
Going to be a very nasty Cape Verde hurricane season with lots of long-lived TCs
Going to be a very nasty Cape Verde hurricane season with lots of long-lived TCs
BHS1975
Member
Maybe we can break the 200mph barrier this year.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member
I saw an article that said 2005 had warmer SSTs but this year looks warmer to me.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
00Z ICON gets it to the islands.....CMC tries to, but ends up a wave....
Jon
Member
Looks like models are sniffing out some subtropical low development but no real hurricanes downstream in the members
I looked at the 6z GEFS members hour by hour, and it looks like they all die out around 144hr at 45-50W. You’d think we’d see some red tracks late towards the east coast so I decided to check it out
Some decent shear is present in this region which is definitely not helping in the 8-12 day time period for development and sustainability of a tropical depression
Only one run and only one model, but GEFS is similar but at this lead time the shear is a little smoothed.
We may get lucky for most of August avoiding a large storm considering all the favorable ingredients.
I looked at the 6z GEFS members hour by hour, and it looks like they all die out around 144hr at 45-50W. You’d think we’d see some red tracks late towards the east coast so I decided to check it out
Some decent shear is present in this region which is definitely not helping in the 8-12 day time period for development and sustainability of a tropical depression
Only one run and only one model, but GEFS is similar but at this lead time the shear is a little smoothed.
We may get lucky for most of August avoiding a large storm considering all the favorable ingredients.
I wanna go on record to say the pattern won’t produce any storms for NC landfalls. Any impacts here will be leftovers from the gulf.
NoSnowATL
Member
That’s good right? Still waiting on that Cat 6 to destroy North Georgia.
Wanting and forecasting are 2 different things nice try. Strong on my record.
Cadi40
Member
*One week after a Hurricane made landfall in N.C., IN JULY...*
BHS1975
Member
Looks like models are sniffing out some subtropical low development but no real hurricanes downstream in the members
I looked at the 6z GEFS members hour by hour, and it looks like they all die out around 144hr at 45-50W. You’d think we’d see some red tracks late towards the east coast so I decided to check it out
Some decent shear is present in this region which is definitely not helping in the 8-12 day time period for development and sustainability of a tropical depression
Only one run and only one model, but GEFS is similar but at this lead time the shear is a little smoothed.
We may get lucky for most of August avoiding a large storm considering all the favorable ingredients.
Just heating up the ocean for the main event.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ex invest 94L isn't dead yet. Getting a closed, well defined low-level center is sometimes half the battle to tropical cyclogenesis
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
It’s also going to have an upper level ridge sitting over it too for a bit.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Looks like a parade of fish storms to me, on most models
Henry2326
Member
BufordWX
Member
Another area of interest in the eastern Atlantic.
1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the
next few days as it crosses the tropical eastern Atlantic. By the
middle of next week, environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the
next few days as it crosses the tropical eastern Atlantic. By the
middle of next week, environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Models are suggesting the E Pacific will have much stronger activity than the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. Let’s see how the period 8/9-22 ends up verifying for the 2 basins. The Atlantic is due a breather to say the least!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Sounds like a Nino
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No, it really sounds more like 2017. Many prominent figures were cancelling the season in mid-late August as the east Pacific raged, then the Atlantic ended up having one of the most active Septembers on record. This year may not be that active in September, but the environment could actually support as much, if not more activity this time around.
NCSNOW
Member
Got a cv lemon I see.
Id watch the mcv parade exiting the Carolina coast. Short window 2-4 days for them to fester just off the coast before being pushed back inland or off to the north.
Needa watch these MCVs for development once they interact with warm water, especially that one off the SC coast 
BufordWX
Member
Code Orange in the Atlantic. 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived
wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation
remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive
enough to support additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived
wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation
remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive
enough to support additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
It has some spin.....
Henry2326
Member
BHS1975
Member
Yeah I was thinking the same thing and I have seen it happen before. The models don’t handle it well.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Downeastnc
Member
95L flexing a bit tonight....
BHS1975
Member
I’m guessing it’s about to run into a lot of shear and open back up into a wave.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member
Although if it can get strong it can fight it off. In any case the trough moving in later will take it ots.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
Hmmm....the lead feature appears to be giving it some cover.....like its sitting in a trough.....
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,655
- Reaction score
- 10,792
Are you sure about a OTS solution?
BHS1975
Member
Going by the gfs. The Euro shows a pattern very similar to what we had with the last storm.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Especially if it stays weak, it may not recurve OTS as models do get it pretty far into the W Atlantic but there very well may not be much to it/it might then dissipate over water.