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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Dewpoint Dan said:
I would say the real season is beginning now. Seems like August 15 to October 15 is when most activity takes place.
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Yeah I'm in the same boat August 15-20 imo

I just find it ironic with the hype the EPAC is getting right now and how unfavorable the Atlantic is the Atlantic has two storms and the EPAC barely has a TD
 
We have a new area as Laura watch begins


A westward-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is
currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
However, upper-level winds are expected to become a little more
conducive for development by the middle of next week as the
disturbance approaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles
and moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
received_324884641973084.jpeg
 
I’m not sure if it’s the current wave coming off of Africa, or parts of it since it gets extremely strung out, but the GFS has a storm hitting the Yutican peninsula, then heading into Mexico.
C3B37E7C-5917-4CA9-9B58-035F07053CA7.png
 
Things heating up quick better enjoy the last days of the "lull"

Laura Marco Nana Omar which ones are gonna be the big ones


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A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is
producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the
next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development
while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more
slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and
upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the
middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some
development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the
week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the
system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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Henry2326 said:
Its been consistent the last 4 runs.....have we ever seen 2 in the gulf at the same time?
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Right off the top I can't think of anything. That being said the Icon tends to run a little hot with TC genesis. On top of that though I would certainly be weary if I lived along the gulf coast over the next 3 weeks. Low amplitude WAR extension across FL will likely keep all storms moving into the Caribbean then start moving them NW into the southern gulf. At that point it may be a real crap shoot as they move into an area of weaker steering between the monster ridge getting squished a bit out west and the westward extending WAR. Any potential strong system might attempt to pull the hard right near Cuba and come north
 
SD said:
Right off the top I can't think of anything. That being said the Icon tends to run a little hot with TC genesis. On top of that though I would certainly be weary if I lived along the gulf coast over the next 3 weeks. Low amplitude WAR extension across FL will likely keep all storms moving into the Caribbean then start moving them NW into the southern gulf. At that point it may be a real crap shoot as they move into an area of weaker steering between the monster ridge getting squished a bit out west and the westward extending WAR. Any potential strong system might attempt to pull the hard right near Cuba and come north
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Icon staying hot in 12z.....and consistent....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_16_12_35_43_382.jpg
 
Henry2326 said:
Icon staying hot in 12z.....and consistent....

View attachment 46523
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CMC has different paths but same idea
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two_atl_5d0.png

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a fast-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the
Windward Islands. This system is expected to move westward at
about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is
likely to limit significant development while the system approaches
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Monday, and moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system
is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for
development during the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This
wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to
latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more
conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
With as active as the tropics have been this year and look to be in the near future, we will be very lucky if a major hurricane doesn't hit the US. It being 2020 and all, I wouldn't count on us being that lucky.
 
Although it doesn't look like all that much because prior GEFS runs had hardly any signal, the 12Z GEFS with its strongest signal yet for the wave currently just off Africa is notable imo. It has it near the LAs in 6 days and then has it move mainly through or just north of the Caribbean and then into the GOM mid to late next week:

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This one will soon need its own thread. The 12Z Euro has it again and it has low shear as well as high dewpoints of 76+:
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When do the steering currents become favorable again for possible East Coast impacts? A few weeks ago it seemed this year would have the opportunity to have more statistically more landfalling hurricanes, but as far as blocking patterns go it doesn’t seem like we’re in a favorable one currently at least for the East Coast. However I am enjoying this cooler weather!
 
12Z Euro continued: Gulf-bound next week

1597603338058.png

End of 12Z Euro fwiw: very dangerous position for the central and NW US GOM coast (this run has very low shear and high dewpoints over this the entire run):

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Happy hour GEFS is less active than the 12Z GEFS, which had been the most active by far for the wave in the E Atlantic. So, the 18Z is the 2nd most active:

1597620987746.png
 
Which one will be Laura

Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase in
association with a fast-moving tropical wave located about 500 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on
Monday, and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of
a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
well to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. The wave is forecast
to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-
latter part of this week while the system moves across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
GFS joins the party on developing the African wave

97L is much weaker but basically is just ahead on a similar track by a couple of days
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_35.png
 
GaWx said:
Happy hour GEFS is less active than the 12Z GEFS, which had been the most active by far for the wave in the E Atlantic. So, the 18Z is the 2nd most active:

View attachment 46544
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For the E Atlantic wave, 0Z GEFS is slightly more active than the previously most active 12Z although most of the development is not til reaching the longitude of the central Caribbean. Later, this is how it looks in the GOM:

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