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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Invest 97L only has a 10% chance of development thru 48-120 hours... Imo, this is well on its way already to becoming a tropical cyclone. Semi-persistent, axisymmetric, and laterally confined convection near what may be a remnant mesoscale convective vortex plus the fact that it's small and already has a lot of pre-existing shear vorticity to work w/...

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted during the past several
hours in association with a small low pressure system located about
midway between Florida and Bermuda. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while the low
moves generally east-northeastward. By Sunday night, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss potential
tropical development of low pressure system southwest of Bermuda.

An area of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of a small
low pressure system located more than 300 miles southwest of
Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that
winds have increased and that the circulation has become better
defined. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical
depression could form overnight or early Saturday
while the system
moves eastward at about 15 mph. By Sunday night, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart
 
Pretty solid outflow kicking out to the east of the wave this morning. Even with that though there seems to be at least a mlc to the west maybe a llc. It doesn't look too bad honestly
 
I'd be much more excited if this was gonna get east of Florida stall out then develop on a NNW headings. Most skirters like this rarely give me anything of interest.
If that trough behind it were digging harder or getting left behind we could have some fun
 
Yet another lemon has appeared. Very low chance of development as of now.74B711E5-297E-4B51-80E1-5EDD9D826551.png
2. A strong tropical wave, centered about 700 miles east of the
Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible
on Monday before environmental conditions become hostile for
development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall
as well as gusty winds on some of those islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
With Edouard probably being named tonight we are ahead of the infamous 2005 season

Now granted 2005 had a major hurricane by now but still
Just wait until September. At this rate, we will probably have 4 active storms in 1 basin. I just expect and fear that because of this year being this year we will see a cat 5 just shred some coastal city or do damage on the level of one.
 
Just wait until September. At this rate, we will probably have 4 active storms in 1 basin. I just expect and fear that because of this year being this year we will see a cat 5 just shred some coastal city or do damage on the level of one.

Right with the way this year has been going with practically everything else nothing would surprise me

Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna are next
 
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