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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

ICON, CMC, Navgem have it in the Panhandle on 24th.....Euro on 27th. UK looks like it's on the east coast and GFS with a nasty storm in western gulf.
 
This coming several weeks from a subseasonal perspective strongly resembles late August/September 1979, 1998, & 2004; lots of intense hurricanes during those years in/around the Caribbean, Greater Antilles, & far SW Atlantic.
 
6z GFS didn't show the eastern trough as strong as earlier runs. Hopefully the 12z shows it again which would create the environment to keep storms offshore. I guess it could allow moisture to be pulled up from the Gulf, but no direct SE hit. **I don't want hurricanes; causes me lots of work.
 
FallsLake said:
6z GFS didn't show the eastern trough as strong as earlier runs. Hopefully the 12z shows it again which would create the environment to keep storms offshore. I guess it could allow moisture to be pulled up from the Gulf, but no direct SE hit. **I don't want hurricanes; causes me lots of work.
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Wanting direct hit is borderline psychotic. Besides the danger, massive damage potential, and major headaches for months or even years afterward, just the pure misery for several weeks afterward from lack of power/AC is absolute nastiness. Many wx weenies here and elsewhere don’t live close to the coasts and just want entertainment. I just had a tree fall on my house from 30 mph winds and it was a pain to deal with as well as scary when it hit the house. That was too much as it was.

Regardless, when I post models and other things, I post trying to be informative in an objective manner rather than either cheerleading or downplaying.
 
GaWx said:
Wanting direct hit is borderline psychotic. Besides the danger, massive damage potential, and major headaches for months or even years afterward, just the pure misery for several weeks afterward from lack of power/AC is absolute nastiness. Many wx weenies here and elsewhere don’t live close to the coasts and just want entertainment. I just had a tree fall on my house from 30 mph winds and it was a pain to deal with as well as scary when it hit the house. That was too much as it was.

Regardless, when I post models and other things, I post trying to be informative rather than either cheerleading or downplaying.
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If you live close to the coast you understand hurricanes can hit. If you don’t like it or afraid move. This is a Wx site and yes the weenies inside us like to see cats 5s and EF 5s. We also understand that they are awful for those in the path of it. If all severe weather was in the oceans this site wouldn’t be here. If it was 75 and sunny everyday this site wouldn’t be here. People like it and can separate the difference between the danger and the love of Wx. Well I Hope most can. I for one love to see it. Go ahead and dis like it.
 
NoSnowATL said:
If you live close to the coast you understand hurricanes can hit. If you don’t like it or afraid move. This is a Wx site and yes the weenies inside us like to see cats 5s and EF 5s. We also understand that they are awful for those in the path of it. If all severe weather was in the oceans this site wouldn’t be here. If it was 75 and sunny everyday this site wouldn’t be here. People like it and can separate the difference between the danger and the love of Wx. Well I Hope most can. I for one love to see it. Go ahead and dis like it.
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Well, at least you’re an honest weenie saying you want the worst storms possible. If you have a tornado destroy your house, I won’t be giving you a sad face and won’t be feeling sorry for you. Would you like a direct tornado hit?
Move? Easier said than done with roots here going back several generations in addition to living with someone who is pretty much bedridden.
 
GaWx said:
Well, at least you’re an honest weenie saying you want the worst storms possible. If you have a tornado destroy your house, I won’t be giving you a sad face and won’t be feeling sorry for you. Would you like a direct tornado hit?
Move? Easier said than done with roots here going back several generations in addition to living with someone who is pretty much bedridden.
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Well if one hits it hits. I don’t need anyone feeling sorry for me that’s for sure. I have insurance and a safe room. I like all weather and I also understand the risks it brings.
 
A Gulf of Mexico landfall would be catastrophic for areas of central NC west given how wet we have been. Much rather have a NC landfall with less rains if any but don’t see that in this pattern. Its much more common to see more damage here in the mtns from storms that hit in the Gulf of Mexico vs our coastline.
 
Henry2326 said:
CMC....similar ICON path to Cuba.....for #2.......landfall same as Euro 00z

View attachment 46571
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At least it is really moving at a great clip, unlike last few years of stall.... Lots to change here, but we have one to track. Good reminder to be ready everywhere, ensure your essential supplies are in order. Irma was originally forecasted to hit the Carolinas early on before it took an improbable path to the FL Keys after raking Cuba.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Well if one hits it hits. I don’t need anyone feeling sorry for me that’s for sure. I have insurance and a safe room. I like all weather and I also understand the risks it brings.
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My thing is we all understand the negative impacts of weather. A good percentage of us are likely here because some event impacted us and generally the impacts weren't positive. Do I hope for extreme damage and suffering from storm? No. Am I still going to look and track? Yes. It's the unfortunate part of being in the weather community most impacts from weather yield less than desirable results and as much as you don't want to see bad things happen unfortunately they do. That's the great thing about sites like this and the rest is you can bring people together to get realistic information in an age where social media is going to overhype and local weather is going to post the well if tracks a, b, or c verify then we have x,y,z impacts
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That H5 pattern is a big yikes View attachment 46574
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That SW Atlantic ridge and the extension across FL pretty effectively blocks the OTS track so any way to avoid a US hit would be to bridge the SW death ridge across the southern tier with the SW Atlantic ridge. Unfortunately with the near cutoff trough through most of this week and the persistent barrage of energy down the eastward side of the heat ridge some type of weakness will be present to allow storms to at least leak northward into the gulf and as the storm intensity goes up the more northeast the track may be. We may be able to get more into a OTS or into Mx look in 2 weeks but that may be too late
 
Code Redtwo_atl_5d0.png


A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is forecast to
interact with another disturbance located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next day or two. This
interaction is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of
low pressure, and conditions are forecast to be conducive for the
development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter
part of this week while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
So we have one potential headed for the Gulf, one looks like it's headed for the SE, and another wave coming behind that one. Fun times.
 
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