Henry2326
Member
ICON 12z doing that double thing again.....
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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Better enjoy it while it lasts.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I also plotted deep-layer wind shear anomalies using the ERA-5, and they're quite alarming. 4th lowest June-July wind shear on record in the Atlantic Main Development Region and the wind shear in the eastern Atlantic is at record lows.
Going to be a very nasty Cape Verde hurricane season with lots of long-lived TCs
Going to be a very nasty Cape Verde hurricane season with lots of long-lived TCs
BHS1975
Member
Maybe we can break the 200mph barrier this year.
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BHS1975
Member
I saw an article that said 2005 had warmer SSTs but this year looks warmer to me.
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Henry2326
Member
00Z ICON gets it to the islands.....CMC tries to, but ends up a wave....
Jon
Member
Looks like models are sniffing out some subtropical low development but no real hurricanes downstream in the members
I looked at the 6z GEFS members hour by hour, and it looks like they all die out around 144hr at 45-50W. You’d think we’d see some red tracks late towards the east coast so I decided to check it out
Some decent shear is present in this region which is definitely not helping in the 8-12 day time period for development and sustainability of a tropical depression
Only one run and only one model, but GEFS is similar but at this lead time the shear is a little smoothed.
We may get lucky for most of August avoiding a large storm considering all the favorable ingredients.
I looked at the 6z GEFS members hour by hour, and it looks like they all die out around 144hr at 45-50W. You’d think we’d see some red tracks late towards the east coast so I decided to check it out
Some decent shear is present in this region which is definitely not helping in the 8-12 day time period for development and sustainability of a tropical depression
Only one run and only one model, but GEFS is similar but at this lead time the shear is a little smoothed.
We may get lucky for most of August avoiding a large storm considering all the favorable ingredients.
I wanna go on record to say the pattern won’t produce any storms for NC landfalls. Any impacts here will be leftovers from the gulf.
NoSnowATL
Member
That’s good right? Still waiting on that Cat 6 to destroy North Georgia.
Wanting and forecasting are 2 different things nice try. Strong on my record.
Cadi40
Member
*One week after a Hurricane made landfall in N.C., IN JULY...*
BHS1975
Member
Looks like models are sniffing out some subtropical low development but no real hurricanes downstream in the members
I looked at the 6z GEFS members hour by hour, and it looks like they all die out around 144hr at 45-50W. You’d think we’d see some red tracks late towards the east coast so I decided to check it out
Some decent shear is present in this region which is definitely not helping in the 8-12 day time period for development and sustainability of a tropical depression
Only one run and only one model, but GEFS is similar but at this lead time the shear is a little smoothed.
We may get lucky for most of August avoiding a large storm considering all the favorable ingredients.
Just heating up the ocean for the main event.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ex invest 94L isn't dead yet. Getting a closed, well defined low-level center is sometimes half the battle to tropical cyclogenesis
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
It’s also going to have an upper level ridge sitting over it too for a bit.
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Looks like a parade of fish storms to me, on most models
Henry2326
Member
Another area of interest in the eastern Atlantic.
1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the
next few days as it crosses the tropical eastern Atlantic. By the
middle of next week, environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the
next few days as it crosses the tropical eastern Atlantic. By the
middle of next week, environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Models are suggesting the E Pacific will have much stronger activity than the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. Let’s see how the period 8/9-22 ends up verifying for the 2 basins. The Atlantic is due a breather to say the least!