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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

ForsythSnow said:
Give me every bad forecast possible. They all did horrible when they said we'd have blockbuster winters so I'll take my chances on having the opposite.
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Winter forecasts are like political polls. You can say a certain candidate will win all day, but the election is the only thing that matters.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Pretty much exactly how my whole night went during the December 8-9, 2018 storm in southeast Wake (really in Johnston county)

Models had several hours of snow for me before turning to rain. But as soon as the precip started I watched that R/SN line surge north FAST. Managed a slushy inch before melting before dawn from rain. 20min north got 5-7+.

By far the most miserable winter event I’ve ever had the pleasure of witnessing. I left Wake county in the dust a few months later ✌?
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The January 2017 storm literally pissed me off lol, I was hyped for like 6-10 inches of snow and I kept waiting and waiting for the sleet to changeover but it never did.
 
Strong La Nina (-1.5 or colder peak) winters per the linked table: average 2-2.5 F warmer than normal. No big deal. I'll enjoy the winter just because it is the winter and way colder than any other season, the most enjoyable season with plenty of wild changes and many pleasant days even in a warmer than normal winter. Also, some of you may even luck out and get a big winter storm as more often than not there will be one somewhere at some point, especially in NC/TN:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2010-1, 2007-8, 1999-2000, 1998-9, 1988-9, 1975-6, 1973-4, 1955-6, 1949-50

1602721248334.png
 
I could kinda see more ice then snow in southeast. Seems like we are due one


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Poimen said:
My guess is a cold December and torch the rest of the way.
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indeed. If there is going to be one cold month, strong La Nina climo says Dec would be the most likely month. Actually, DEC, alone, for the 9 strong La Ninas averaged near normal vs the solid AN of Jan and Feb when the SER tends to take over.
 
GaWx said:
indeed. If there is going to be one cold month, strong La Nina climo says Dec would be the most likely month. Actually, DEC, alone, for the 9 strong La Ninas averaged near normal vs the solid AN of Jan and Feb when the SER tends to take over.
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Wonder if the strengthening sun has anything to do with aiding the SER take over in January and especially February . Could explain why December tends cold partially ?
 
I specifically remember 2010 to 2011 winter and I remember the Mets were calling for a front-loaded winter.. all through December that kept kicking the can down the road and then also January kicking the can down the road. It never did warm to above-normal like a dumpster fire until late Feb.
 
Bham 99 said:
I specifically remember 2010 to 2011 winter and I remember the Mets were calling for a front-loaded winter.. all through December that kept kicking the can down the road and then also January kicking the can down the road. It never did warm to above-normal like a dumpster fire until late Feb.
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Yeah there weren’t really any serious winter storm threats outside the mountains after the big storm in early January, but it didn’t get really warm here in the Carolinas until mid February or so, but if my memory is correct there were a a lot of CAD set ups from mid January on. The CAD was helped out by a very deep snowpack that was in place for the entire Northeast. Unfortunately when that LaNina did take over, it had staying power and gave us that ridiculously warm winter in ‘11-‘12.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah there weren’t really any serious winter storm threats outside the mountains after the big storm in early January, but it didn’t get really warm here in the Carolinas until mid February or so, but if my memory is correct there were a a lot of CAD set ups from mid January on. The CAD was helped out by a very deep snowpack that was in place for the entire Northeast. Unfortunately when that LaNina did take over, it had staying power and gave us that ridiculously warm winter in ‘11-‘12.
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That was a frustrating winter. It started with so much promise (WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!!!!), but after early January it was trash. I mean, January/February were chilly, I guess, but there were no real storms to speak of. Even the early January storm was a nightmare IMBY, it was putrid and turned to crap as it moved east after hammering GA. All I got was IP and ZR, and not much of that. After Boxing Day, it was a disaster IMBY. :(
 
superjames1992 said:
That was a frustrating winter. It started with so much promise (WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!!!!), but after early January it was trash. I mean, January/February were chilly, I guess, but there were no real storms to speak of. Even the early January storm was a nightmare IMBY, it was putrid and turned to crap as it moved east after hammering GA. All I got was IP and ZR, and not much of that. After Boxing Day, it was a disaster IMBY. :(
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Avl airport managed 9.4 inches in January and a total of 20.2 for the winter. I’m guessing the January storm was a mountains only event maybe
 
superjames1992 said:
Winter cancel. Burn it down. Warm and dry, the ultimate combo of doom. Maybe Marvelous March will save us.

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

View attachment 50434View attachment 50435
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Since rain (as opposed to wintry precipitation) is frowned upon by many here, I’d think those folks would want it to be dry if it is mild. So, the dry part of this should be good news for them.

By the way, I did a study of ATL area winters and found that average temperature is much more of a determining factor with regard to amount of wintry precipitation than is dry vs wet. There have been a good number of dry, cold winters that were wintry but not many wet, mild ones that were wintry.
 
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avlsnow said:
Avl airport managed 9.4 inches in January and a total of 20.2 for the winter. I’m guessing the January storm was a mountains only event maybe
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It was a great storm for AL/GA/NW SC/W NC, but if I remember right it was an overrunning event and we lost the cold air source as it moved east and it went to crap once it got out my way. Plus, most of the precip stayed south. I’m not even sure RDU managed an inch of anything with that one.

EDIT: I found this satellite image from 48 hours after the storm that illustrates what it hit.

19818443-8698-4E70-BFB9-0F003671668C.jpeg
 
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accu35 said:
I still think this winter will be colder than lastt that's a plus.
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It almost has to be, haha. And I still have hope for this winter, I just was making a joking doomer post. It just takes one storm to make our winters, so even crappy winters can deliver (likewise, some “good” winters don’t). :)
 
superjames1992 said:
It was a great storm for AL/GA/NW SC/W NC, but if I remember right it was an overrunning event and we lost the cold air source as it moved east and it went to crap once it got out my way. Plus, most of the precip stayed south. I’m not even sure RDU managed an inch of anything with that one.

EDIT: I found this satellite image from 48 hours after the storm that illustrates what it hit.

View attachment 50450
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8.5 inches for Chattanooga.. last good pure snow with temps in the upper teens. Had heavy snow and 18 degrees at one point during the storm
 
My opinion on this winter is for the NC/TN/NGA/Upstate SC region, that we could be anywhere from -1 to +3 degrees in overall average temps, so near normal/equal chances somewhat. I'm basing this on the absence of a strong subtropical jet and the possibility of the SER being beaten back until late winter, ofc things can always bust either way. I do believe we will see more frequent and severe cold snaps due to the northern stream being so dominant(the mountains will probably see a good NW flow snow year if this plays out) but it will be a dry cold pattern.

Ofc, I could be totally wrong and the SER could have us in the 70s for 90% of our winter but I'd like to think otherwise.
 
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