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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

This is the first time I’ve seen the LR new GEFS be available on Weatherbell. The mean is making its way into the mountains through October! I believe it gets implemented next Wednesday.
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This is the first time I’ve seen the LR new GEFS be available on Weatherbell. The mean is making its way into the mountains through October! I believe it gets implemented next Wednesday.
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The mean is just being mean by trying to fool us by sneaking in a “possible” taste of the good stuff. Not again King!! As former President George W. Bush said, “"There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, 'Fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me... You can't get fooled again!'"
 
The mean is just being mean by trying to fool us by sneaking in a “possible” taste of the good stuff. Not again King!! As former President George W. Bush said, “"There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, 'Fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me... You can't get fooled again!'"
Don't worry, I won't get fooled, especially by a mean 860hrs out lol. I'm just posting here because we haven't met our criteria for the archive thread. Although watch out in case the regular (384hr) GEFS gives central NC some snow.
 
Don't worry, I won't get fooled, especially by a mean 860hrs out lol. I'm just posting here because we haven't met our criteria for the archive thread. Although watch out in case the regular (384hr) GEFS gives central NC some snow.

What’s the criteria?
 
Ok... so crazy wildfires, a gazillion tropical systems... and it’s mid September and finally feeling like fall!!! Have we hit the reset button to bring us some snow???? Let’s hope so!!!
Give us another White Christmas this year Mother Nature and I can forgive all of the grievances that is the year 2020. lol
 
I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.

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All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.

Temps:

Jan.pngDJF.pngjAN 500MB.png


And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.

first.pngSecond.png

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The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
 
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