cd2play
Member
If nothing else, hopefully December at least resembles a winter month. It just doesn't feel much like Christmas with December averaging 5+ degrees above normal
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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts
- Thread starter Fountainguy97
- Start date
With the exception of 2017 December has been so warm lately, warmer than November in many years, I almost can't even think of it as a winter month anymore. Hopefully that changes this year. With a La Niña it just might.
Do we want to torch January though? Is a colder December and possibly February better?
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Me personally I'd like to not torch at all. But its inevitable we'll torch one or two months, or even all three like the past decade!
Fountainguy97
Member
If we want to not torch we need this pattern to change. I can’t believe this but the LAST time a DJF month had a negative NAO average was February 2013... and it was barely negative. You have to reach ALL the way back to 09-10 and 10-11 to find the first winters with solid -nao. That’s nearly a decade ago.
We all know there are so many moving pieces to our winters but there is no way this is not atleast one of the glaring problems as far as getting cold into the SE over the last decade.
BTW here is the temps for 09-10, 10-11 and then the rest of the decade.
Again I understand there are so many other pieces but still.
look familiar?
I love this thesis examining snowfall of the southern Appalachian mountains. Lots of deep reading but the bottom has pictures! Lol
Click Here for Paper
here is a screenshot of the breakdown of snowfall across the regions of the southern mountains. Hard to see but all you need to know is red is -nao. Blue is +nao. You can see most regions average double the snowfall in -nao regardless of enso state.
For me, step one is seeing a -nao period longer than a week.
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We had good winters in 13-14 and 14-15 for most areas, so I'm assuming you don't need a -NAO to lock in for the entire winter for a decent period of cold and snow.
Fountainguy97
Member
for sure. More so I think we are talking about a greater chance of cold in -nao. But cold doesn’t automatically mean more snow.
I’ve started thinking strictly what brings a higher chance of cold. More cold naturally increases the snow chance. Snow chances down south are pretty much impossible to accurately predict year to year
The -NAO helps to keep the cold air anchored in place longer which in turn increases the snow chances and we aren’t relying as much on perfect timing. ‘13-‘14 and ‘14-‘15 were certainly decent winters for most of us from a snow standpoint, but we still ended up slightly above average temp wise both of those winters... we just simply lucked out on the timing during periods of a +PNA. One thing to note this winter, if we get any kind of extended blocking this year, their are a lot of places that are overdue now for a major snow... Southern Piedmont NC and Upstate SC (south of I-85), SC Midlands, and Northern and Central GA. These areas often do very well with southern sliders and it just seems like it’s been forever since we saw one.
Still nothing worthy of the archive thread, but we’re getting closer...
00z EPS member 27 says hello to the MA folks
06z GEFS member 11 also looks interesting
00z EPS member 27 says hello to the MA folks
06z GEFS member 11 also looks interesting
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Lot's of smoke being put into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from the western US and Siberian wildfires. Have to think there will be some effect on the late fall early winter pattern
I'm struggling to find good literature on it so I'm shooting from the hip but I would lean toward a weaker pv and chances to be cooler.
Not saying it's a 1-1 correlation but I saw some comparisons to the 2017 smoke plume on twitter. We went normal Sept, above normal Oct, then below normal for Nov, Dec, Jan. Just some food for thought on the contrary to the mega warm forecasts being thrown out. If we can weaken the pv and allow more HLB you can certainly attempt to mitigate an unfavorable IO
LickWx
Member
It is interesting how 2017-19 all had a below normal November to be followed by an above normal DJF (though 2017-18 had a BN DJ followed by a well AN February). 2018 and 2019 proved that a super cold November doesn't necessarily mean the entire winter will be cold. November 2019 was barely colder than January 2020 in some areas.
LickWx
Member
Very overdue a warm November ! I want it , bring it on.
Word on the street is that the air is clean, due to COVID. Maybe colder winter? Or then again, maybe just means more earthquakes in NW NC.
I have read about this earlier in the month. If it means we reduce manufactory for colder and better seasons Im all for it....wait
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