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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

Myfrotho704_ said:
Certainly like seeing that consistent Scandinavian ridging, can it last though
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Not entirely sure it'll last through the winter but it's encouraging to see it's persistence as we start to roll deeper into the cold season. In the short term I am interested to see how Teddy will impact the downstream pattern and what evolves in early to mid October. I could see us taking a shot at a -AO/NAO couplet
 
SD said:
Not entirely sure it'll last through the winter but it's encouraging to see it's persistence as we start to roll deeper into the cold season. In the short term I am interested to see how Teddy will impact the downstream pattern and what evolves in early to mid October. I could see us taking a shot at a -AO/NAO couplet
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I've wondered when does blocking start to affect the weather in the SE. I've read (somewhere) blocking doesn't help cool the SE in the summer. So at what point does it (now, mid Oct. , mid Nov)? Maybe after the SE ridge is beating down....
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Maybe as early as next week
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Maybe, not out of the question to get a high elevation snow this early in the season.

I've always waited to start looking at the indices (hoping for +PNA, -AO, -NAO, -EPO) until late November; basically when we actually have a chance to get a winter storm.
 
FallsLake said:
Maybe, not out of the question to get a high elevation snow this early in the season.

I've always waited to start looking at the indices (hoping for +PNA, -AO, -NAO, -EPO) until late November; basically when we actually have a chance to get a winter storm.
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It's related to wavelengths, I believe. Looking at the upcoming ridge/trough couplet for next week, it looks a lot more like a mid-winter pattern.
 
FallsLake said:
I've wondered when does blocking start to affect the weather in the SE. I've read (somewhere) blocking doesn't help cool the SE in the summer. So at what point does it (now, mid Oct. , mid Nov)? Maybe after the SE ridge is beating down....
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Rain Cold said:
It's related to wavelengths, I believe. Looking at the upcoming ridge/trough couplet for next week, it looks a lot more like a mid-winter pattern.
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What rain cold said. In general though the 2nd half of June/July/1st half of August are to me when blocking really doesn't do a lot. Once the westerlies start to move south in the 2nd half of August but especially into September it starts to show up again.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
If we want to not torch we need this pattern to change. I can’t believe this but the LAST time a DJF month had a negative NAO average was February 2013... and it was barely negative. You have to reach ALL the way back to 09-10 and 10-11 to find the first winters with solid -nao. That’s nearly a decade ago.

We all know there are so many moving pieces to our winters but there is no way this is not atleast one of the glaring problems as far as getting cold into the SE over the last decade.

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BTW here is the temps for 09-10, 10-11 and then the rest of the decade.
Again I understand there are so many other pieces but still.

View attachment 49101View attachment 49102

look familiar?

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I love this thesis examining snowfall of the southern Appalachian mountains. Lots of deep reading but the bottom has pictures! Lol

Click Here for Paper

here is a screenshot of the breakdown of snowfall across the regions of the southern mountains. Hard to see but all you need to know is red is -nao. Blue is +nao. You can see most regions average double the snowfall in -nao regardless of enso state.

For me, step one is seeing a -nao period longer than a week.

View attachment 49100
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bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
 
tennessee storm said:
bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
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I like severe man, and it’s more common in torches, but I think we all need snow for a change, don’t worry next spring should be quite active, I expect it to be one of the most active severe seasons in years
 
tennessee storm said:
bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
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Bruce, with my limited knowledge, usually kelvin waves warm the eastern Pacific, which limits laniña development. I know you don't like winter, but most on here do.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Bruce, with my limited knowledge, usually kelvin waves warm the eastern Pacific, which limits laniña development. I know you don't like winter, but most on here do.
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now I don't know who to root for, Bruce or Kelvin.. /)
 
tennessee storm said:
bring on the torch this winter... I like what im seeing with the pdo going in the negative range... big kelvin wave taking place now in the southern pacific should boost the la nina even more
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Guess what? You’re in the overwhelming minority here.

As far as Kelvin waves go, it depends on if it is a downwelling phase or an upwelling phase. As tropical winds travel east to west, they pile up the warm water. When the winds begin to ease up, the warm water on the surface piles up. This warm water has downward push on the thermocline as the wave travels eastward and it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often warm the surface temperatures and could be the beginnings of an El Niño.

After the downwelling portion of the wave passes we will sometimes get an upwelling where the colder water at depth comes toward the surface and the thermocline rises instead of sinking. We often will see below average temperatures near or at the surface.

So your point in regards to a Kelvin wave is dependent upon the phase it is in.
 
Really encouraging sign for the upcoming winter to see a ginormous Scandinavian block like this in October. One thing we failed to do last winter was attack the stratospheric polar vortex early & often and it costed us dearly later on, hopefully if this pattern persists & grows we can reverse our fortunes this time around.

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Webberweather53 said:
Really encouraging sign for the upcoming winter to see a ginormous Scandinavian block like this in October. One thing we failed to do last winter was attack the stratospheric polar vortex early & often and it costed us dearly later on, hopefully if this pattern persists & grows we can reverse our fortunes this time around.

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Yeah I was just talking to some freinds in the C us about that earlier, very nice to see that persistent block
 
Cadi40 said:
This years Hurricane Season was a record breaker, Hopefully this Winter Season follows suit.
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Pretty sure 2005-06 was a dud for most of the southeast. I know RDU got blanked that winter, how did other areas like GSO/CLT/GSP/ATL do?
 
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