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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

Fountainguy97 said:
I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.

View attachment 48994

All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.

Temps:

View attachment 48993View attachment 48992View attachment 48998


And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.

View attachment 48995View attachment 48996

View attachment 48991


The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
Click to expand...

Nice write up! Lets see if we can’t get lucky this go round.


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Fountainguy97 said:
I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.

View attachment 48994

All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.

Temps:

View attachment 48993View attachment 48992View attachment 48998


And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.

View attachment 48995View attachment 48996

View attachment 48991


The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
Click to expand...
That H5 pattern Looks sorta similar to what we’re about to deal with if the LR models are right, some nice blocking....
 
I’ll be nice and hold off on what I want to say in response to the above right now so some of y’all can dream this weekend. Besides, there’s way too much else going on in the shorter term, including a very pleasant weekend with the first true walk worthy autumn wx coming! Furthermore, I always enjoy winter relative to summer, regardless of how it turns out. I’m already predicting at least a 25-30 F temperature drop from this summer along with a big drop in humidity!

PS I will add this. There’s almost always a decent chance for a week or two of solid BN even in the warmest of winters.
 
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Perhaps someone that has researched this could help more. I have read a paper how CO2 emmisions has continued to rise each year. Since the global shutdown i decided to do a little digging. The good news is that the CO2 is dropping and its dropping faster then the past. I believe this is a temporary affect due to COVID. The current PPM we are at for last month was 412.55. The highest for this year was: 417.07 ppm. Without more data and time i can formulate a hypothesis that while the CO2 increases our chances for wintry weather decreases in the southeast.

Data:

2019 6 2019.458 413.93 413.93 411.53 27
2019 7 2019.542 411.74 411.74 411.39 25
2019 8 2019.625 409.95 409.95 411.87 29
2019 9 2019.708 408.54 408.54 412.15 29
2019 10 2019.792 408.52 408.52 411.96 29
2019 11 2019.875 410.25 410.25 412.26 26
2019 12 2019.958 411.76 411.76 412.44 31
2020 1 2020.042 413.39 413.39 413.09 29
2020 2 2020.125 414.11 414.11 413.26 28
2020 3 2020.208 414.51 414.51 413.04 26
2020 4 2020.292 416.21 416.21 413.42 28
2020 5 2020.375 417.07 417.07 413.58 27
2020 6 2020.458 416.38 416.38 413.99 27
2020 7 2020.542 414.38 414.38 414.04 31
2020 8 2020.625 412.55 412.55 414.48 25









ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt


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Myfrotho704_ said:
That H5 pattern Looks sorta similar to what we’re about to deal with if the LR models are right, some nice blocking....
Click to expand...
SD is all aboard at least 1 extreme pac ridging period with a major cold dump into the US. I may have said this before but I personally believe last winter wouldn't have been as crappy if we didn't have the mega vortex chopping off any attempt at HLB. I also know that house money is on warmth this winter but there are a couple of ways we could sneak around the warmth and actually get into a much more average winter temp wise.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.


All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.

Temps:



And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.




The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
Click to expand...

I had season totals over a foot on 3 of those so I hope these analogs are correct.
 
StormStalker said:
Is there any coorelation to an active hurricane season and winter weather in the east/southeast?
Click to expand...
For BHM I looked at the 2005/2006(closest time wise of this active of a tropical season) and nothing winter weather wise was mentioned of any consequence for the end of 2005 beginning 2006...
 
If I was to release a winter forecast out right now (take with a extremely small grain of sand) this is what I would go with
December 33E75BA9-82B8-4182-917F-33440FA1CD2F.jpeg
January BB6C24F2-A30C-4600-B46E-AF9F8E116DD9.jpeg
February 55E06BD7-0435-499D-94FA-594526217986.jpeg
Average it out for DJF and much of the SE would still end up quite AN, but not as bad as the last few winters
 
SETNwx said:
Yeah, we're overdue a COLD Dec.. if not a snowy one.. Been a while really. Can't keep flipping a coin and it end up heads.
Click to expand...

Yeah and plus ninas (especially East based) can sometimes be better in December VS El Niño’s
 
December 2010 was a moderate-strong La Niña and it was awesome. Well below normal temperatures with several events here in NC.

It is remarkable how long we have gone without a significant Arctic outbreak in December. This year seems to be changing up the late September pattern, maybe it will lead to a cooler December as well?

This cool weather has me thinking snow.
 
CyclonicFury said:
December 2010 was a moderate-strong La Niña and it was awesome. Well below normal temperatures with several events here in NC.

It is remarkable how long we have gone without a significant Arctic outbreak in December. This year seems to be changing up the late September pattern, maybe it will lead to a cooler December as well?

This cool weather has me thinking snow.
Click to expand...


Still the deepest snow I’ve ever seen. Was ironically visiting family for Christmas where I now live. Snowed for 2 straight days. Measured 13inches all over the yard and I’m sure there was compaction.

Man what a Christmas that was. A foot+ falling through the holiday.
7F6DB17E-B5BE-4FEE-9734-9AAEBFB7BB9D.png
 
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