Hot off the press from Maxar: why are they expecting a mild winter? Actually, they have +2 to +3 in the SE US, which isn't all that warm as it would be significantly colder than last winter. Geez, +2 to +3 is really about the new normal. Big whoop. So, whereas I fully expect the SER to be in charge much of the time (look at it even now), I'm hoping it won't be as dominating as last winter. Regardless, enjoy the wx as that is the only wx you get. (from a wx philosopher most of us know):
"Forecaster Analogs For Winter 2020-2021
19 meteorologists at MAXAR submitted individual winter forecasts, and 17 made use of analog methodologies as part of their reasoning. The table within this discussion are those analogs most common among the forecasters and the reasoning for use. The primary themes among the list are the +AMO (i.e. warm Atlantic), which is represented in eight of the nine analogs, the +WPAC (i.e. warm west-tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures), which is represented in eight of the nine analogs, La Niña, which is represented in five of the nine analogs, and a hotter than normal summer preceding, which is represented in each analog. The AMO was measured at +0.31 in September and is firmly within its multidecadal warm phase. On its own, it correlates warm in winter with a –0.30 anomaly correlation to GWHDDs. Related to the +AMO, waters are anomalously warm in the central latitudes of the North Atlantic, and this is potentially a leading indicator for the also warm correlating +NAO pattern during the winter season. La Niña is currently in a moderate state as of the most recent weekly measures. It is common for convective activity to be enhanced over the west-tropical Pacific, nearby Indonesia, during La Niña winters. That activity will likely be further enhanced over the anomalously warm waters; the WPAC ranked second warmest back to 1950 in September. These are the main forcing mechanisms contributing to the forecast. Four of the top-15 warm winters are among the analog list, while zero years fall into the top-15 for coldest back to 1950. The analogs range from the 2016-17 warm record to the 18th ranked cold season from 2010-11. The weighted average of analogs are spatially similar to the forecast for temperatures, with 2495 GWHDDs also matching the forecast."