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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

I guess I was wrong about Dr. Roundy. Kinda suprised he said that. Considering he knows alot about mjo stuff
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, I know your adamant about it being a warm winter, but I read something from Dr. Roundy that the IOD has switched phases and expects a much different outcome coming up.
Click to expand...

He probably wrong about that also. Mjo plays big factor like always. It dont get enough acceptance ?
 
Mr. Golf said:
He probably wrong about that also. Mjo plays big factor like always. It dont get enough acceptance
Click to expand...

Honestly guys, the MJO is still a mystery. Not enough is known about its phases. I never look at MJO forecast past two weeks. Let alone this experiment model? We can’t even get hr240 and beyond accurate and this guy formed a model for two months out?

WWP are just for click bait and for viewers to tune into the 6pm news. Everyone has been burnt. When will Mets and hobbyists learn?

We have to go by the most proven factual data that is given and within the 240hr time frame is when we should analyze predictions.

There I said it. It had to be said.


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We're starting to get closer to the beginning of "model winter." The EPS weeklies are beginning to approach that time, and I plotted all the airports with at least one member with snowfall. NC went up 2 from the previous run. SC and GA still have 0. This is also the first run where the Weatherbell algorithm puts non-zero totals in NC.output_wSijwU.gifecmwf-weeklies-avg-conus-snow_46day-3411200.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-se-snow_46day-3411200.png
 
It doesn't really matter anymore what kind of pattern we have. El Nino, La Nina, AO, NAO, on and on. We have had patterns that are supposed to produce good snow here end up producing zilch, and we've had good snow when the pattern was supposedly bad for it. I think what we used to count on for producing around here just doesn't work like it used to. We can't rely on it one way or another in winter.
 
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