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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

tennessee storm said:
cant blame him... not many people would like it anyways im affraid
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If true, that would just add to the bias toward cold winter forecasts. Even Bastardi blew his chance (though predictable) of putting out a warm E US winter forecast.

I think it would be good if SE folks would go ahead and accept that it will very likely be a mild winter instead of fighting off the inevitable for several months. Another mild winter wouldn't kill us. Just accept it and be done with it. If you have good health, be thankful as many don't. Having to endure a mild winter pales in comparison. Otherwise, they are just prolonging the "pain". There are zero indicators of the likelihood of a cold winter. Besides, a mild winter wouldn't mean no winter and it is the most enjoyable season to me, regardless. .Speaking of JB, enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get!
 
GaWx said:
If true, that would just add to the bias toward cold winter forecasts. Even Bastardi blew his chance (though predictable) of putting out a warm E US winter forecast.

I think it would be good if SE folks would go ahead and accept that it will very likely be a mild winter instead of fighting off the inevitable for several months. Another mild winter wouldn't kill us. Just accept it and be done with it. If you have good health, be thankful as many don't. Having to endure a mild winter pales in comparison. Otherwise, they are just prolonging the "pain". There are zero indicators of the likelihood of a cold winter. Besides, a mild winter wouldn't mean no winter and it is the most enjoyable season to me, regardless. .Speaking of JB, enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get!
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We are far too variable in winter for a mild winter to be boring and without opportunity !
 
GaWx said:
If true, that would just add to the bias toward cold winter forecasts. Even Bastardi blew his chance (though predictable) of putting out a warm E US winter forecast.

I think it would be good if SE folks would go ahead and accept that it will very likely be a mild winter instead of fighting off the inevitable for several months. Another mild winter wouldn't kill us. Just accept it and be done with it. If you have good health, be thankful as many don't. Having to endure a mild winter pales in comparison. Otherwise, they are just prolonging the "pain". There are zero indicators of the likelihood of a cold winter. Besides, a mild winter wouldn't mean no winter and it is the most enjoyable season to me, regardless. .Speaking of JB, enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get!
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JB is a category 5 clown unfortunately
 
Lickwx said:
We are far too variable in winter for a mild winter to be boring and without opportunity !
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Winter of 11-12 says hi! You're 20 so you don't remember much about that dumpster fire. Unfortunately winters like that are far more likely to repeat now and ones like 09-10 we'll probably never see again.
 
Something to think about; usually in a la nina winter cold is focused on the NW US up into western Canada. This cold will come eastward from time to time. Not necessarily southeastward (bad for us). We will probably see lots of storms moving from the Texas area up through the great lakes (bad for us = warm). But the air to our northwest (and at times north) will be cold. We'll probably get at least a few chances of CAD events. Even with a winter that averages above normal we could still score a good (or great) winter storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol you apparently don’t remember 2011-12 or 2005-06. Utter garbage and boring from start to finish. Got completely shutout in Fayetteville
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I very much remember 2011-2012! We got down to the teens in January . That’s what I meant by variable we aren’t going to be shutout of all cold ! Still got lots of freezes.
 
I have seen posts about how warm the Arctic is compared to this time last year. About twenty degrees warmer or more. Would this weaken the cold air plumes in ml?


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FallsLake said:
Something to think about; usually in a la nina winter cold is focused on the NW US up into western Canada. This cold will come eastward from time to time. Not necessarily southeastward (bad for us). We will probably see lots of storms moving from the Texas area up through the great lakes (bad for us = warm). But the air to our northwest (and at times north) will be cold. We'll probably get at least a few chances of CAD events. Even with a winter that averages above normal we could still score a good (or great) winter storm.
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Lots of Great Lakes lows to look at all winter.
 
Last time we dropped into the teens here was Jan 2019 with 17 degrees . It’s really possible we could go this winter as well if it is as warm as signs point without seeing teens which would make it possible that we go almost 3 years with no teens which is absurd ! If we make it through this Jan that’s 2 years !
 
Lickwx said:
Last time we dropped into the teens here was Jan 2019 with 17 degrees . It’s really possible we could go this winter as well if it is as warm as signs point without seeing teens which would make it possible that we go almost 3 years with no teens which is absurd ! If we make it through this Jan that’s 2 years !
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Id be very surprised if we don't get into the teens this year
 
SD said:
Id be very surprised if we don't get into the teens this year
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I would as well, our mean minimum last 30 years is 12 degrees so we should drop into the teens . However , if it’s warm we could narrowly avoid or just barely drop down to around 17-19 degrees .
 
The station at NCSU well into Raleighs UHI has a mean minimum of 14 degrees last 30 years ! Geez, they tend to be 2-4 degrees warmer than the airport at night . In 2018 the airport dropped to 4 but they only dropped to 9. Atlanta UHI similar story with a mean minimum of 16 last 30 years in its UHI.
 
Lickwx said:
I would as well, our mean minimum last 30 years is 12 degrees so we should drop into the teens . However , if it’s warm we could narrowly avoid or just barely drop down to around 17-19 degrees .
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I think the thing we have going for us is it's a Nina and we should be northern steam dominant. That being said if we can't find a way to get rid of this mean ridge across the region it'll be another lackluster year for cold. I'm interested to see if we start to weaken the jet in time and start getting a much more wavy pattern as we get deeper into the cold season. My biggest fear right now is we get another strong pv and we are fighting for scraps all winter then go cold in mid March through early May when the PV seasonal breakdown occurs
 
I'm starting to get a sinking feeling we're about to run the table on warmth in December in N America, contrary to the canonical La Nina paradigm of early winter cold. Hopefully, the SE US ridge isn't too bad.

A respectable signal is already starting to emerge for +NAO/+EPO/-TNH into the first portion of December

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Does that result in a more amped SS like how a El Niño itself would result in ?
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Yeah it actually encourages some southern stream disturbances, but most of those times where the pacific jet is able to effectively undercut the E US/Canada block w/ Indian Ocean MJO in early winter is during El Nino-Neutral ENSO. La Ninas often just keep the trough out west anyways and we bake.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it actually encourages some southern stream disturbances, but most of those times where the pacific jet is able to effectively undercut the E US/Canada block w/ Indian Ocean MJO in early winter is during El Nino-Neutral ENSO. La Ninas often just keep the trough out west anyways and we bake.
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Nino Phase 3 (actually kind of a classic CAD/Miller B look)

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Nina phase 3

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