Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Solar min/west QBO/La Nina is the solar, QBO, & ENSO combo that favors the least perturbed and strongest polar vortex state. Not to mention persistence and our basic state climate changes are skewing the odds more in favor of +AO/NAO. Chips are stacked against us this year even more so than usual, but the last 2 nina esque winters (2013-14 & 2017-18) were the best ones of recent memory around here in the Carolinas while most of the El Niños have been utter flops, so who the heck knows anymore.
Gonna need some big time high latitude N pacific blocking (-EPO/-WPO) to save us yet again & push a lobe of the PV right over us. We will probably need to see some winter threats materialize early and often in December and January before the door slams shut on us in February as it often does in La Ninas.