but what about the Siberian Khatru Snowfall Index?
Yeah, that thing turned out to be useless as far as I’m concerned.
but what about the Siberian Khatru Snowfall Index?
It would be funny as heck if the warm forecast that JB put out for this winter busts on the cold side after the way he’s been adamant about East coast cold for the last few years. Of course it would absolutely fit 2020 if there to be a board wide historic Southern Winter Storm at some point in mid to late December.
There’s no correlation between a negative NAO in Oct and one for DJF averaged out...i.e., it doesn’t make one more likely nor does it make one less likely vs when not having a -NAO Oct. The stats since 1950 tell me this. And the stats just since 2000 tell me this. But if it will make it cooler in Oct, that’s good enough for me.
He will say he called for cold! I can’t even with himIt would be funny as heck if the warm forecast that JB put out for this winter busts on the cold side after the way he’s been adamant about East coast cold for the last few years. Of course it would absolutely fit 2020 if there to be a board wide historic Southern Winter Storm at some point in mid to late December.
Nope this will be the one time out of 10 he's right!One thing about it is, JB's winter forecast isn't going to bust 10 degrees too cold this time!
I’ve seen snow or ice 7 of the last 9 La ninas if my google is correct.We are now officially in a La Niña
I especially like see that in eastern Canada. Need a good source region for CAD.Time to start building that snow pack!
View attachment 49596
Like to see us go through them names this year
I'm going with Peggy I'm sure she would peg us well.I’m going with Nathaniel
Looks good! Something familiar that we're used to for a decade now.
It's been over since Feb 2018
I'm going with Peggy I'm sure she would peg us well.
Winter weather can peg me anyway she wants.Like being pegged? Not something I’m into, but you do you. Let your freak flag fly.
When you break down years and individual winter storm cases, many of the seriously big storms that deliver RDU-I95 bullseyes (instead of GSO and pts NW) are often in La Ninas. El Niño winters can be snowy but typically are fraught with RDU screwjobs.The way I see it, nothing is etched in stone right now. Yes if you had to bet on an outcome, you might pick a cooler start to winter and then a warm ending; with an overall warmer than normal temperature average. But just looking at the past la nina years, gives me hope for a good winter. Heck even a great winter:
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Some bad years, and some really good one in this list.
It's been some time since there has been a big I-95 storm (like March 1980). It's funny, the farther east you go the less chance of wintery precip for an average winter; but when a storm occurs it can be historic (for anybody's book).When you break down years and individual winter storm cases, many of the seriously big storms that deliver RDU-I95 bullseyes (instead of GSO and pts NW) are often in La Ninas. El Niño winters can be snowy but typically are fraught with RDU screwjobs.
Yeah El Niño snow gradients blow, I wanna try out a Nina, weird part is we’ve had a El Niño the last few years, but it seems as if we get into this nina like H5 pattern with a ridge under Alaska and cold bottled up around the high plains/NW, but have the active STJWhen you break down years and individual winter storm cases, many of the seriously big storms that deliver RDU-I95 bullseyes (instead of GSO and pts NW) are often in La Ninas. El Niño winters can be snowy but typically are fraught with RDU screwjobs.
Lol might as well copy paste for the next 5 monthsLook similar ? Lol View attachment 49656View attachment 49657
Yeah I’ll admit we don’t get as favorable looking patterns as often in la ninas, but when we do we are much more likely to see a CLT-RDU or coastal plain bullseye. I’m not sure if that’s because the subtropical jet is weaker and therefore it’s harder to get really strong coastals that bomb out and pump WAA well into the piedmont, or I think a more reasonable assumption is that when we get sufficiently cold air masses to have winter storms in La Ninas, the air is colder. This, if true, would be thanks to NE Pacific blocking highs seeding the N American continent with Siberian air, whereas in El Niño we get more frequent cool-mild air but since in most instances the continent is flooded with mild, pacific air, those air masses are weaker, continental polar instead of being truly “arctic. Just a hypothesis anyway...Yeah El Niño snow gradients blow, I wanna try out a Nina, weird part is we’ve had a El Niño the last few years, but it seems as if we get into this nina like H5 pattern with a ridge under Alaska and cold bottled up around the high plains/NW, but have the active STJ
Yeah I’ll admit we don’t get as favorable looking patterns as often in la ninas, but when we do we are much more likely to see a CLT-RDU or coastal plain bullseye. I have so many examples of these kinds of storms in my archive lol
Yeah the 2 storms in January 2018 are good examples, the upper low in mid January was the first good storm in a while to put RDU in the bullseyeYeah, one could even looks back to 2018, which had snow all along the coast!
I've just about converted my allegiance over to nina vs nino. It's like fantasy football, nino's might have a safe floor but Nina's have a mega high ceiling.Yeah the 2 storms in January 2018 are good examples, the upper low in mid January was the first good storm in a while to put RDU in the bullseye
I've just about converted my allegiance over to nina vs nino. It's like fantasy football, nino's might have a safe floor but Nina's have a mega high ceiling.
He means that with ninos, you get cool shots but often times you compete with a STJ, which pumps in milder air at the sfc/aloft at times, but when there’s a Nina, you can get better cold shots due to a more dominant N/S and the snow events tend to be better due to the lack of a gradient vs a nino winter in winterWhat specifically do you mean when you imply that La Niña has a higher “ceiling” than El Niño? How many winters of data is this based on? Are you talking specifically about the Raleigh area?
Yeah I’ll admit we don’t get as favorable looking patterns as often in la ninas, but when we do we are much more likely to see a CLT-RDU or coastal plain bullseye. I’m not sure if that’s because the subtropical jet is weaker and therefore it’s harder to get really strong coastals that bomb out and pump WAA well into the piedmont, or I think a more reasonable assumption is that when we get sufficiently cold air masses to have winter storms in La Ninas, the air is colder. This, if true, would be thanks to NE Pacific blocking highs seeding the N American continent with Siberian air, whereas in El Niño we get more frequent cool-mild air but since in most instances the continent is flooded with mild, pacific air, those air masses are weaker, continental polar instead of being truly “arctic. Just a hypothesis anyway...
I have so many examples of these kinds of storms in my archive lol
What specifically do you mean when you imply that La Niña has a higher “ceiling” than El Niño? How many winters of data is this based on? Are you talking specifically about the Raleigh area?
What he said.He means that with ninos, you get cool shots but often times you compete with a STJ, which pumps in milder air at the sfc/aloft at times, but when there’s a Nina, you can get better cold shots due to a more dominant N/S and the snow events tend to be better due to the lack of a gradient vs a nino winter in winter