Kylo
Member
Every time I watch the GEFS fantasy day 12+ modeled pattern come in I think of this movie clip.
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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
You know winter is headed for epic failure when Hoover Alabama has a higher snowfall mean than you
tennessee storm
Member
really getting very excited for my area west tn midsouth
Kylo
Member
I wrote this a few weeks back. It really seems like TN is super due. This pattern does look pretty good for your area.
I can’t base this off anything but just climate and what’s happened recently in El Niño winters and then being known as being backloaded. February could really bring us the goods. It’s hard to imagine to have our third year in a row with a blazin warm February.
Absolutely. That GEFS snowfall mean would have me licking my chops
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I hope we get a massive SE ridge since we only get snow in bad patterns
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
tennessee storm
Member
SnowNiner
Member
Lol. It's going to happen man! Clark eventually got his family out of the roundabout! Tonights weeklies will be huge for me I think. If week 2 shows what GEFS shows at the end of the run, game on. If it's still week 3/week 4, we're spinning around still in the roundabout and kicking the can.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I think you're missing my point.
Did we have what would be considered a great pattern for more than normal chances of snow when we had the storm in early December?
A lot of times when there is talk of a great pattern beforehand, it doesn't fully materialize, or it ends up not doing much of anything when it comes to producing winter storms.
My point is most of our good storms now seem to come when there is not much talk of a great pattern for winter storms beforehand, such as the early December storm. We just seem to get lucky, and often it is when we go from one extreme to another, not when a supposedly great pattern for snow settles in.
I don't understand why it is that way, but sure seems to be how it has been the past few years. Actually, this entire decade for the most part.
tennessee storm
Member
and its 6 more weeks of winter.... sucks....
Im swamped at work but will look into this when I get home. Tbh the december pattern was probably better than it got credit for
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Kylo
Member
Something is up with the GEFS after day 10. I get that ensembles have low skill day 10+ but the GEFS for day 10+ has been stuck on tanking the AO for it seems like ever. Until we see it hit 3 std inside day 10 this is all fantasy.
Kylo
Member
We got mosquito season to look forward to....we got that going for us.
My neighbor caught a baby rat snake in her house the other day. Even the snakes don’t fear this winter. And snakes know.
My neighbor caught a baby rat snake in her house the other day. Even the snakes don’t fear this winter. And snakes know.
The GEFS has averaged about a 0.5 -AO bias at day 14 the last few months. However, it did well with this last -2 dip. Also, its current sub -2 forecast at day 14 is the most -AO day 14 forecast since mid Nov. So, even after taking into account the 0.5 -AO bias, things are looking up for a another nice drop days 10-14 and maybe even a crash thereafter.
Part of it also is that these graphs are inflated for some reason as I've noted before vs the standard NCEP charts.
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We aren't getting snow, get something in the 5-7 day window that has soild consistency, then we'll be talking.
B Rad all aboard the cold train! There goes the neighborhood! 
Kylo
Member
If we thought the past 5 weeks was rough, just wait for how much fun the next couple of weeks will be. System tracks to our north or over us, warm rain, then arctic cold front, then another warm rainer, then another arctic cold front...rinse/repeat.