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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Kylo said:
If we thought the past 5 weeks was rough, just wait for how much fun the next couple of weeks will be. System tracks to our north or over us, warm rain, then arctic cold front, then another warm rainer, then another arctic cold front...rinse/repeat.
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I thought you were all in on the winter storm train.
 
There might have been other storms for the northern parts of the SE that produced no matter what the pattern was, but 09-10, 13-14, 14-15 didn't have good patterns that are climo favored for snow in the southeast? Even 10/11 with the La Nina, while it was projected warm before winter, didn't a good pattern develop for a while?

I also think the first half of December pattern was good. I remember seeing a picture of a map with a trough. It was just not predicted to be a good month for winter overall and later was.

I don't think the point is on the pattern, the point is at times, we've gotten surprised by the actual outcome. I remember being told how it ended up going that way with 10/11 (think it was a volcanic eruption), but that winter was supposed to be so warm and ended up being the opposite until February with two major winter storms (maybe three with the storm that happened in February in some areas).
 
Brick Tamland said:
Kind of proving my point.
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I'm not sure it's an all time great pattern leading up to that period. But I can't see the EPS, so I don't know. Post the upper air panels and we'll see.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Kind of proving my point.
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Your point is it can snow it sub optimal patterns. Yes, I agree. And this day 10-15+ pattern is a pretty good pattern. Not great, would want ridge and pv further east.

When we get a textbook NC snow pattern with split flow active STJ you will see the difference.
 
SD said:
You don't get much better than that but i guess its going to whiff bc its too good?

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Lol one of us is wrong! It's probably me.
 
SD said:
You don't get much better than that but i guess its going to whiff bc its too good?

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Our go to pattern has a strong ridge just west of HB. We don’t like GOA ridges either. Doesn’t mean it can’t snow in Raleigh with that look but just not our favored pattern. But, it’s the best looking pattern we have had this winter.
 
Kylo said:
Your point is it can snow it sub optimal patterns. Yes, I agree. And this day 10-15+ pattern is a pretty good pattern. Not great, would want ridge and pv further east.

When we get a textbook NC snow pattern with split flow active STJ you will see the difference.
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Actually, my point was we seem to get better snow storms here the last few years in patterns that really are not considered great for snow, but we end up lucky with timing. And we have not benefited much from patterns that are considered better for snow based on what they did in the past.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Actually, my point was we seem to get better snow storms here the last few years in patterns that really are not considered great for snow, but we end up lucky with timing. And we have not benefited much from patterns that are considered better for snow because of what they did in the past.
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The issue I see is that we haven't really had any what I would call great patterns the last few years. But parts of the area have had good snows. Looking back through history, there have been plenty of sub-optimal patterns that have produced good snowstorms. I'm not sure what the crux of the argument is at this point. But there are plenty of ways to snow in non-perfect patterns. And the fact that we have so few really great patterns skews the anecdotal evidence to seem like non-perfect patterns are as good for snow as great patterns. The long and short of it is that the really great patterns seem to come in and go out quickly or not come in at all over the last decade.

Just imagine the magnitude of the snow opportunities (and results) if we were to get a sustained great pattern and if that were to recur every year.
 
I'
Storm5 said:
Hot damn the EPS. Days 10,12,15
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Did you work out a deal with Honda snow blowers to get that look? Haven't seen them on a banner ad yet. Congrats if true tho.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Let me just remind everybody that we had a big western ridge set up shop early January of last year with a deep eastern trough and we couldn’t buy a storm. I know we have things we like to look for and nit pick on the models but there’s more than one way to skin a cat. We find new ways to win and lose every year..mostly ways to lose, but you get the point
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Maybe not the deep southeast, but the upper southeast had a killer winter last January.
 
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