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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

If there's not going to be a winter storm, it might as well be 70° I'm all in for the colder pattern, but a colder pattern doesn't mean that there will be a winter storm.
 
Rain Cold said:
The issue I see is that we haven't really had any what I would call great patterns the last few years. But parts of the area have had good snows. Looking back through history, there have been plenty of sub-optimal patterns that have produced good snowstorms. I'm not sure what the crux of the argument is at this point. But there are plenty of ways to snow in non-perfect patterns. And the fact that we have so few really great patterns skews the anecdotal evidence to seem like non-perfect patterns are as good for snow as great patterns. The long and short of it is that the really great patterns seem to come in and go out quickly or not come in at all over the last decade.

Just imagine the magnitude of the snow opportunities (and results) if we were to get a sustained great pattern and if that were to recur every year.
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Well, the way folks are talking we should be getting a sustained great pattern. However, it seems to be getting kicked further and further down the road. So, maybe it isn't that we don't get snow like we used to in patterns that should be great for snow. But it's more of people talking about a sustained great pattern showing up that never does.
 
Robert West said:
I can’t base this off anything but just climate and what’s happened recently in El Niño winters and then being known as being backloaded. February could really bring us the goods. It’s hard to imagine to have our third year in a row with a blazin warm February.
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I agree with this. The odds are in our favor to not torch for a 3rd February in a row. It doesn’t mean we can’t torch but the law of averages says we won’t do it 3 winters in a row.
 
olhausen said:
I agree with this. The odds are in our favor to not torch for a 3rd February in a row. It doesn’t mean we can’t torch but the law of averages says we won’t do it 3 winters in a row.
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The law of averages also says it shouldnt be above normal in December for 8 straight years but it has.
 
Before I get type casted....2014 had cold centered like models are projecting and that was super snowy.

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Brick Tamland said:
Well, the way folks are talking we should be getting a sustained great pattern. However, it seems to be getting kicked further and further down the road. So, maybe it isn't that we don't get snow like we used to in patterns that should be great for snow. But it's more of people talking about a sustained great pattern showing up that never does.
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Well, I guess when there's no imminent threat, you have to look to how the pattern is shaping up and discuss that. No reason not to look for factors that might indicate a good pattern is on the way, as long as you aren't dismissing the opportunities the current pattern might have to offer.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I am saying every winter lately it seems when people start talking about entering a great pattern for snow, it never happens, or we do get a pattern that is supposed to be better for snow but still get nothing. It seems we get snow now when there's not really talk of it being a great pattern for getting snow.
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Can you explain that one more time please? I didn’t understand it the first 10 times you posted it. Lol
 
So now the question is will it actually set in, or will we be looking further down the road again? Something needs to start showing up on the models. We were all excited for the week of the 20th with multiple threats possible, and now it seems we are looking past that to the end of the month for a better than normal pattern to set up for winter storms.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol look at that shiznit right there:

View attachment 11099

But this is good. Just what we want...nice -NAO shaping up, flatter PV, undercutting jet and nice western ridge (though, I'd like it to come east a tad). Plenty of cold in the pattern here.

View attachment 11100
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Just hopefully the Midlands can score with the amount of cold expected.
 
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