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Pattern Jammin' January

Shawn said:
Actually had time to go over some weather modeling today, caught up on the last week and 1 /2 of runs and I will venture to say, everyone is about to start seeing some very wild solutions. Yes, Wintry solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing some "historic" type stuff showing up..

Please don't model chase though. They're going to be back and forth in the atmospheric chaos that the modeling is alluding to. I'd use the ensembles for the overall pattern recognition/temperature (PV stuff) and use the operational runs for 500mb energy and ideas at this point.

The higher resolution operational runs are going to pickup on pieces of energy the lower resolution ensembles will just plain miss out on for their forecast. There's a lot of volatility about to float around and small changes to angles, strength, and speed will greatly affect the way these systems track and develop.
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Miss you man happy to see you back.
 
From Allan
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hey ladies and gents, just a very friendly reminder things are getting interesting and business is really picking up (which is great btw) but we've been very loose lately but now help us out please.... keep the non-pattern/storm discussion comments in banter please. The reminiscing, how to dress, etc.... again just because traffic is significantly on the increase. Thank you again for flying the SouthernWx Arctic Express
 
James Spann really blew it on his afternoon update. He did show the Euro showing bitter cold in 10 days, but said he didn't see any snow chances in the next 8 ,9, 10 days other than flurries, so he completely ignored what the Euro shows with snow. Really lazy.
 
18z GFS continues N trend, VA gets crushed, TN gets some love on the Wed/Thur system
 
Stormlover said:
James Spann really blew it on his afternoon update. He did show the Euro showing bitter cold in 10 days, but said he didn't see any snow chances in the next 8 ,9, 10 days other than flurries, so he completely ignored what the Euro shows with snow. Really lazy.
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What does he benefit by saying more than that 8-10 days out? His collusion with Wal Mart doesn't run that deep! LOL!
 
Don't get me wrong, the cold shot w/ the first lobe on this run around day 8/9 is very impressive, the 2nd PV lobe over central Canada is much stronger (notice how low the tropopause heights are) and diving straight towards the US. We're gonna see a bunch of crazy scenarios the next several days but if it wasn't clear several days ago to many here, it should be now that we're going to turn much colder late in the month.
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Fv3 has the exact same system as euro and gfs ... snow almost board wide I believe it’s showing... I’ll have to look at the tropical tidbits map which would load in around 6:30 or something like that to confirm.
 
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