Holy Cow at the Euro just through 240 hours. I'm counting four possible systems just by quick glance at 500mb.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
The FV3 is doing the same thing. With the PV lobe so far south, the waves come within days of each other. With all that cold, little snow that falls would melt and we could see snow on top of snow if it verifies. Truly great runs today. Let's see if they hold.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like there is not much doubt about the cold coming. GEFS mean continues to increase, and now the models are really starting to fire up the storms. They might be a little farther out than I like, but there is no doubt the signals for winter storms are showing up strong starting a week from now. Lots of positives today for those looking for snow.
this would be a 1097 when the CMC gets into range
Let you slide this once....
P.S. I know, I know, this is banter....
The 18z FV3 was a thing of beauty. So. Many. Opportunities. Including that 1/26 to 1/28 window and like 4 more lol.
Another storm on fv3
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Likely gonna be some strong winds with these storms, over 1000jkg of sbcape, storm organization and a decently moist cloud layer will likely produce a few decent water loaded downdrafts and a couple of spin ups tommorow in the southern gulf coast states
Yeah I’d take the 18z fv3 for sure
Right or wrong this is impressive to see on the ensembles 16 days out
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Kinda surprised about the lack of talk about severe weather tommorow, a slight risk is concerning and it covers a decent amount of area
That actually is a good look, all that hp would suppress the storm track allowing for possible winter wx and even a boardwide
The Euro has some pretty stout gusts as well as the system moves through.
Isn't going to take a lot to force these 925s down. Its interesting that 2014 is mentioned as a top analog and we had a big wind event on 1/11 that had an 86 mph gust at RDU. That event started the step down to about 4-5 weeks of glory
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Speaking of wind, I will never forget that sting jet from Michael, can literally hear the roar above your head, even during the breaks, something I’m never going to forget and those wind chills sunday night will be brutal from those wind gusts
Jessy89
Member
Is 2014 the same year. 1.6 inches of snow caused major problems for Atlanta. Complete gridlock. If so I could see it happening again if the next weekend snow works out
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CentralGAColdFront
Member
Yes, it was on January 28, 2014.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A word to the wise, if a ridge like this goes up over the Bering Straits and Alaska in the extended, another massive PV lobe will drop into Canada and towards the US at the beginning of February and lead to yet another monster arctic outbreak after the one that's already being sniffed out before month's end.
Jessy89
Member
Wow wouldn’t it be something if it happened again same day
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Jon
Member
From Jan 5th... don’t say the winter cancel crowd wasn’t warned!
It’s funny to go back and read the thread, we’ve all been through quite a lot. In all seriousness, I can’t be more excited about what I’m seeing. Everything is falling together pretty nicely.
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Jon
Member
It’s funny you say that, I was trying to find modeling around that exact time period because I remember it looked similar to what Webber just posted above (ridging over/above Alaska, cross polar flow) and it does in fact look quite similar. This pattern can lead to deep cold and deep wintry precipitation for sure.
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Showmeyourtds
Member
I think the Latoya Jackson Airport Hot Wing & Nail Emporium recorded close to 3” that day. Shut the place down for a minute or 3. I know this statement is banter-worthy, but I have a point that I’d like to make should the distinguished gentlemen that run this joint permit:
The level of cold shown on these recent model runs is something ridiculous. The blocking & the occasional lobes of the PV breaking off are remarkable. But I’d like to ask, simply because I haven’t paid much attention to the discussion-Would this level of cold be conducive to southern sliders/Miller A’s with widespread winter weather despite the lagging MJO & the teleconnections? How many standard deviations below the mean would this look like for the NAO or AO? Like for real, this is some crazy stuff. I haven’t found any resources that show what that would look like, hence my asking.
Flame away.
Look at western ridge just literally sit there, that’s nice, 2014 was a good winter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s funny you say that, I was trying to find modeling around that exact time period because I remember it looked similar to what Webber just posted above (ridging over/above Alaska, cross polar flow) and it does in fact look quite similar. This pattern can lead to deep cold and deep wintry precipitation for sure.
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Lol I still can't believe we got lake effect snow bands off some of the major lakes in central NC during that arctic outbreak in January 2014, unreal.
Not flaming and not being negative. Generally with that kind of cold look more often than not down here it suppresses the low track way down in the GOM. Not saying this is gonna happen this time not saying it won't either. This is just my humble experience with cold arctic outbreaks. Those who are more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong.
It also could be conducive for a great overrunning event not unlike the ones we had in the recent past. If a Southern slider is strong enough to walk the tight rope along the Gulf coast it could drop a good amount of snow over a wide area.
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sigwx
Member
I think your right when it happens to tomorrow there will some people very surprised with the storms and the cold
That was the last time I had a decent snow
Snowflowxxl
Member
Winter 2014 and 2011 tied for the best of my lifetime. Multiple snows both having major impacts. Christmas and snowjam!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you're one of those people wanting an alternative to plot monthly/daily composites of SST, z500, among other things that you can't currently do thru NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory due to the government shutdown, I recommend using the KNMI Climate Explorer that's run by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi
https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi
You just get a feeling we’ll find a way to move some cutters I mean precip through with how juiced up the STJ has been the past several months. Could be the perfect recipe OR the cold air might prevail. I mean it snows in Canada with these kinds of temperatures. Why can’t we line one up?
I think our biggest headache is also our greatest asset: Gulf Of Mexico. Canada,MidWest and Northeast to a certain extent don't have a huge hot water tank right next to them. When winter storms start to interact with that it can bury us in snow or suck the WAA into it. Again it is a tight rope down here.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
In entertainment purposes only land on the happy hour, there was actually a wave that tried, it got squashed however. Throws Phil a bone on the surface map though.
Certain to be completely different on 0z:
In the next frame it's squashed but you see light snow and sleet deep in the south on the surface.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Anyone consider the winds that these runs are putting out as well? I noticed the Euro has 40 to 50 mph gusts across many areas as the temps plummet. It takes our temps from 41 to 7 in 6 hours, so if such an arctic blast verifies it will literally be a blast and the wind chills will be horrifically cold.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Mid-late January 2014 is a pretty obvious front-runner to the pattern that's associated with this upcoming arctic outbreak.
Up to 1" of additional snow fell in this legitimate lake effect snow band in parts of Wilson, Nash, & Wayne counties that emanated off of Lake Kerr. Probably one of the craziest things I've ever seen here in NC.
Up to 1" of additional snow fell in this legitimate lake effect snow band in parts of Wilson, Nash, & Wayne counties that emanated off of Lake Kerr. Probably one of the craziest things I've ever seen here in NC.
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Yep - that radar shot looks familiar too, that has to have come from the SCO as that is my exact GR2 setup haha. I still help them out on some winter weather stuff from time to time and we put that blog post together in about an hour, truly a remarkable event (was a little disappointed to not catch any of it over in Wake Forest).
I'm starting to get excited about the upcoming pattern change.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol I'm not surprised, your layout is really nice btw. Yeah I saved this image at the time and it's one of the cleanest shots I could get of the LES band
Here's an animation of the band (also so others here can enjoy this extremely rare event).
Looks like some virga might have developed in far northern Wake County around 9z-10z from training over Lake Kerr and Falls Lake so you were very close to getting a few flakes but light-moderate snow fell for about 2-3 hours in parts of Nash & Wilson counties!
Storm5
Member
I think this is important to remember . Sure everyone wants a big storm with a foot of snow . But a few inches followed by days of brutal cold can be far more impactful and in fact is my preference when it comes to winter storms
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Storm5
Member
This was supposed to be a reply to Webb’s post about 2014 lol
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