I guess seeing the EURO/GFS both showing the major pattern change today gave me hope we could use that guidance more reliably. The GFS changed again but I am curious if the EURO holds serve.
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I guess seeing the EURO/GFS both showing the major pattern change today gave me hope we could use that guidance more reliably. The GFS changed again but I am curious if the EURO holds serve.
Exactly. the models have just now figure out there is a pattern change but still working out all the kinks from this time distance. I am sure will see plenty of flip flopping probably at 5 days. Still looking better than it did 18 days or so ago.
Storm5
Member
Found the blocking !!!!
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
If the GEFS doesn't change a whole lot, I'll use the rule that we created since we knew the GFS was supposed to be discontinued (which due to the shutdown, it won't be), and toss this run as a bad run.
The way the gfs has the vortex ride out of town in the later hours is suspect at bestFound the blocking !!!!
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Gfs started to get a little chaotic with the Canadian vortex and when it pinched off the top of the ridge north of alaska the wheels fell off. Meh
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Storm5
Member
26th-28th very active along the front on the 00z gefs
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Fv3 still has mid week storm. Steady as she goes.
Total snow for mid week storm
Practically the same as 18z. Very Consistent.
0Z GEFS complete run. 90% of the southeast gets something.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well the GEFS was pretty different overall compared to the GFS. To the bin you go, 0z GFS.
My guess is the Euro isn't so ridiculous with the cold but it holds serve on our coldest air of the year. It won't be as cold as it was simply because the 12z was so stupid. But I do think we're going to get a Jan 2014 like pattern.
My guess is the Euro isn't so ridiculous with the cold but it holds serve on our coldest air of the year. It won't be as cold as it was simply because the 12z was so stupid. But I do think we're going to get a Jan 2014 like pattern.
And we have kick off on the euro.
I’d sure love to know what’s going on in the eastern pacific this run. Oops
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Brent
Member
Euro is a rainstorm for everyone Wednesday pretty much
Clem282340
Member
Any update on the 0Z euro
No go on the midweek system.
Brent
Member
Atlanta is near 60 degrees Wednesday Night, zero cold air
NCSNOW
Member
Cold coming down good Thursday. Lot better placement canada. Central, not NE. Op gfs out in leftfield again.
Euro does have next weekends storm. Another different OP look from the doc
Not as good as 12z run from what I could tell
0Z euro is a no go.
olhausen
Member
No go Wednesday but very impressive for tomorrow night here in middle Tennessee.Local weather calling for a half inch to one inch of snow at best earlier today. This run says otherwise.
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
A quick perusal of the 0Z guidance reveals that the -NAO is not what it was with the 12Z suite. Once again it's been shown and then taken away. Will it come back today?
Looks like we're under a slight risk for severe weather today, as the line of storms to the west moves through later today.
FFC is suggesting the potential for weak/brief tornadoes as well.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
FFC is suggesting the potential for weak/brief tornadoes as well.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
gawxnative
Member
Well first Tornado Warned cell of the day, near Durant, MS....
gawxnative
Member
And we have Tornado Watch #1.... graphics have not updated yet on SPC Site
Storm5
Member
Gefs and eps through day ten
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tennessee storm
Member
Not. Bad... like see it slowly increase ... but we got start somewhere ...Gefs and eps through day ten
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Just had a Quarter Marathon event canceled due to the tornado watch.
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Hello is this thing on?! The potential is there folks - it's literally slapping us in the face. It may not work out, but it's the first board wide potential we've seen.
Having a ridge out west is good, having a PV lobe up north is good, but what i really want to see is positive height anomalies in the Davis Straight (between Canada and Greenland) with a shortwave trough axis in the lower MS valley...thats our baby.
Agreed Ill take my chances with this look in any winter
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pcbjr
Member
Arjen Robben
Member
Isn't it neat that no matter what day you look at these models the next board wide system is always 10 days out.
cd2play
Member
We're about 7 days out now. #progress
Too bad the one he is referring to is day 7-8.