I think we can safely say that the doc was drunk tonight. What the heck happened to the King?
How cold ???Bias or no bias , the 06z gefs is one of the coldest runs in a while starting at day 8 through the end of the run
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6z GFS has me interested in two potential system for the southView attachment 10652View attachment 10653
The upper air pattern stinks for a SE winter storm for this time frame, as depicted on the regular GFS. Take a look: There is a nice ridge along the west coast and up into Canada. But notice how the trough axis is oriented farther west. Also notice that there is no blocking. Also notice that the storm is already too far north, as it should be, based on the model's upper air depiction. This would most likely be front end slop for the far northern/western zones, maybe, followed by rain.6z GFS has me interested in two potential system for the southView attachment 10652View attachment 10653
The upper air pattern stinks for a SE winter storm for this time frame, as depicted on the regular GFS. Take a look: There is a nice ridge along the west coast and up into Canada. But notice how the trough axis is oriented farther west. Also notice that there is no blocking. Also notice that the storm is already too far north, as it should be, based on the model's upper air depiction. This would most likely be front end slop for the far northern/western zones, maybe, followed by rain.
View attachment 10663
Now, look at the FV-3 for the same period: The ridge isn't quite as tall, but it's still very effective, along the west coast. But what do we see over Greenland? A nice big fat west-based -NAO. The PV is farther south and oriented more west-east, and the storm track is farther south. It is a classic suppressed pattern. If this shows up for real, it is time to sound the alarm, load the boat, back up the truck, go all in, etc.
View attachment 10664
Unfortunately, it's been a long time since that pattern showed up for real. But if it does, it's full steam ahead snowstorm city.
Bias or no bias , the 06z gefs is one of the coldest runs in a while starting at day 8 through the end of the run
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Agreed. Honestly, it's difficult to believe any model at that range. But if I knew that one of them was going to be right and didn't know which one it was, I'd probably pick the regular GFS, just because that's the kind of "good" pattern that we've seen continue to repeat the last several years. -EPO driven with no blocking, ending up in mostly mixed events and Miller B things.I hope the FV3 is correct and we all taste that delicious awesome sauce. Really, are we going to believe the GFS over the FV3 anymore?
The upper air pattern stinks for a SE winter storm for this time frame, as depicted on the regular GFS. Take a look: There is a nice ridge along the west coast and up into Canada. But notice how the trough axis is oriented farther west. Also notice that there is no blocking. Also notice that the storm is already too far north, as it should be, based on the model's upper air depiction. This would most likely be front end slop for the far northern/western zones, maybe, followed by rain.
View attachment 10663
Now, look at the FV-3 for the same period: The ridge isn't quite as tall, but it's still very effective, along the west coast. But what do we see over Greenland? A nice big fat west-based -NAO. The PV is farther south and oriented more west-east, and the storm track is farther south. It is a classic suppressed pattern. If this shows up for real, it is time to sound the alarm, load the boat, back up the truck, go all in, etc.
View attachment 10664
Unfortunately, it's been a long time since that pattern showed up for real. But if it does, it's full steam ahead snowstorm city.
FV3 has been better in the long range so I will go with that. We may not always get sustained -NAO blocking but with a -EPO we are money as well.The upper air pattern stinks for a SE winter storm for this time frame, as depicted on the regular GFS. Take a look: There is a nice ridge along the west coast and up into Canada. But notice how the trough axis is oriented farther west. Also notice that there is no blocking. Also notice that the storm is already too far north, as it should be, based on the model's upper air depiction. This would most likely be front end slop for the far northern/western zones, maybe, followed by rain.
View attachment 10663
Now, look at the FV-3 for the same period: The ridge isn't quite as tall, but it's still very effective, along the west coast. But what do we see over Greenland? A nice big fat west-based -NAO. The PV is farther south and oriented more west-east, and the storm track is farther south. It is a classic suppressed pattern. If this shows up for real, it is time to sound the alarm, load the boat, back up the truck, go all in, etc.
View attachment 10664
Unfortunately, it's been a long time since that pattern showed up for real. But if it does, it's full steam ahead snowstorm city.
It's been a while since we had a slow moving Miller A that hammers most of the south from TX to the Carolinas. I would say we are overdue!All I need is a western ridge and a -epo . You Carolina peeps can worry about the NAO . I figure we get a 2-3week window with chances starting the week of the 20th. A -epo pattern has been money for the last decade for my area . What’s the saying , if it’s not broken don’t fix it .
That said if we happen to get a -NAO that’s great . Then maybe we can get a slow crawling Miller A . One can dream right ?
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Yeah, you guys are far enough west that you don't need the NAO as bad. I can't recall the last time I've seen a storm in winter move through southern GA/southern SC/northern FL and then just off and up the coast. That track doesn't seem to happen anymore. Probably mostly due to lack of wintertime blocking.All I need is a western ridge and a -epo . You Carolina peeps can worry about the NAO . I figure we get a 2-3week window with chances starting the week of the 20th. A -epo pattern has been money for the last decade for my area . What’s the saying , if it’s not broken don’t fix it .
That said if we happen to get a -NAO that’s great . Then maybe we can get a slow crawling Miller A . One can dream right ?
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