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Pattern Jammin' January

1300m said:
Hello is this thing on?! The potential is there folks - it's literally slapping us in the face. It may not work out, but it's the first board wide potential we've seen.


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I swear, seems like this whole forum has gone a lot more negative since the "complaining" thread was introduced. It appears it is bleeding over here, so my advice is just don't go there and read it. I made the mistake of reading some posts over there but just had to get out quickly. It was created I suppose just in fun but some have taken it to new heights with their comments
 
1300m said:
Given the range of solutions we've seen and the amount of cold air potentially available, I think flakes in the air even for you during this period is a non-zero probability. Of course if that happens it probably wouldn't be good for me...
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This timeframe is a very good one. It’s one of those setups where the storm doesn’t want to cut. In fact, if there is a risk of anything going wrong it would be for the storm to be suppressed too far.

That’s completely opposite of any system we have watched so far this winter. The vast majority of systems we follow we are begging for it to dive further south. This one would already be a nice deep trough.

Definitely a good start.
 
One thing I have seen is the really big storms are usually tracked for long periods of time. Atleast that’s how it has been since about 2010 for most systems.

My layman’s theory is: When you get a highly amped pattern it’s almost easier for models to pick out the storms because the storms are so strong and large. It’s like trying to swat a fly versus a butterfly. Small storms can be so tricky while larger ones tend to be easier to track. So our large ones tend to be modeled much further out than a weaker storm. Thats from my experiences in NC anyways.



Here are the 4 main OP runs.

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Obviously they aren’t exactly the same BUT that’s remarkable consistency for a trough being 8-9 days out.

IF there is a storm we want to work out it would be this one on the front end of a PV diving down into a favorable area.

Strong signal is here. We just need the trough to orient further to the west. Most models suppress this storm too far OTS at the moment which is the spot we want to be in before the NW shifts start happening.

If I’m hanging my hat on any storm signal it would be this one.

Ensembles are signaling too.
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SD said:
Agreed Ill take my chances with this look in any winter
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Not bad. If we had blocking up top, that s/w would be going negative tilt and we end up with a 6 to 10 inch Miller A for much of the board. As is though good enough for a 1 to 2 maybe 3 potential.
 
1300m said:
Hello is this thing on?! The potential is there folks - it's literally slapping us in the face. It may not work out, but it's the first board wide potential we've seen.


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The problem is unless it’s blue over their house, the pessimists can’t see potential. I’d argue about 15-20% of posters can, others have to wait on snow maps to get excited.

For instance, there’s a southern slider on Day 15 on the 06z GFS and there’s probably going to be folks looking at Feb 3rd now and “kicking the can”

Back to the 27th, the run to run volatility is wild, so depending on the energy, we could see a storm during this time period on basically any operational run. Then the board will explode. Rinse and repeat!

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I’m excited about the clipper looking thing next weekend. But for now temps maybe marginal. It’s the threat to watch though. But very fair to say the models changed its toon on the extreme zero degrees cold. Still cold though of course


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Speaking for NC, we have positives in the GEFS showing a great mean, and the pattern is loaded with potential. However, we still have op runs all over the place, and most of them don't have anything here but rain. The GEFS has been very consistent, though, and even increased the mean. Hopefully, this is the case of snow popping up 3 to 5 days out because we are inside 7 to 10 days now and really nothing much to show for NC yet.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Speaking for NC, we have positives in the GEFS showing a great mean, and the pattern is loaded with potential. However, we still have op runs all over the place, and most of them don't have anything here but rain. The GEFS has been very consistent, though, and even increased the mean. Hopefully, this is the case of snow popping up 3 to 5 days out because we are inside 7 to 10 days now and really nothing much to show for NC yet.
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Brick Tamland said:
Speaking for NC, we have positives in the GEFS showing a great mean, and the pattern is loaded with potential. However, we still have op runs all over the place, and most of them don't have anything here but rain. The GEFS has been very consistent, though, and even increased the mean. Hopefully, this is the case of snow popping up 3 to 5 days out because we are inside 7 to 10 days now and really nothing much to show for NC yet.
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And how much snow did you receive in your back yard with the last storm?
 
Lots of great potential within the next 10 days for many on the board. So be careful not to get to caught up on looking at day 15 or 16 maps. No need to punt the next ten days just because it isn’t showing snow in your backyard just yet.


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Jon said:
The problem is unless it’s blue over their house, the pessimists can’t see potential. I’d argue about 15-20% of posters can, others have to wait on snow maps to get excited.

For instance, there’s a southern slider on Day 15 on the 06z GFS and there’s probably going to be folks looking at Feb 3rd now and “kicking the can”

Back to the 27th, the run to run volatility is wild, so depending on the energy, we could see a storm during this time period on basically any operational run. Then the board will explode. Rinse and repeat!

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Very good points. I'd also contend in concurrence w/ 1300m yesterday that the current pattern being modeled on the EPS is more favorable for snow than getting all the cold at once, having a perpetual rotating carousel of northern stream waves around the mean Canada vortex affords us with a several windows to fit a southern slider into.

What many folks here don't realize is a pattern like this w/ a deep cold vortex and rapid fire of northern stream disturbances at the base of the vortex over southern Canada and the Lakes gives us plenty of mulligans to easily mess up the timing w/ one wave but be in prime position to time it right for the next or preceding wave. I'd personally love to see a nice southern stream s/w come crashing into California or the Baja while we have the SE Canada vortex in position but beggars can't be choosers.
 
Jon said:
The problem is unless it’s blue over their house, the pessimists can’t see potential. I’d argue about 15-20% of posters can, others have to wait on snow maps to get excited.

For instance, there’s a southern slider on Day 15 on the 06z GFS and there’s probably going to be folks looking at Feb 3rd now and “kicking the can”

Back to the 27th, the run to run volatility is wild, so depending on the energy, we could see a storm during this time period on basically any operational run. Then the board will explode. Rinse and repeat!

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I agree. The biggest disconnect I see on this board is not in a specific storm thread, but in pattern threads. The one's who don't get it are looking at each model run in detail, living and dying on 10 day model output, and some do not seem to want to understand what pattern analysis is all about.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Speaking for NC, we have positives in the GEFS showing a great mean, and the pattern is loaded with potential. However, we still have op runs all over the place, and most of them don't have anything here but rain. The GEFS has been very consistent, though, and even increased the mean. Hopefully, this is the case of snow popping up 3 to 5 days out because we are inside 7 to 10 days now and really nothing much to show for NC yet.
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If you watch ESPN's college football game day on Saturday morning and Lee Corso says your team will lose, do you turn off the TV, throw the remote, and not watch the game because you know your team will lose? OP runs outside 5 days and Lee Corso game predictions have a lot in common. They are often dead wrong! Don't worry about them.
 
accu35 said:
Oh yeah, I know it's off but even half of that would be great. All tho, temp profile does seem like it would support the snow.
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The kuchera maps on pivotalweather are much more reliable for the FV3. There is some potential mid week but its the type of setup that will be very difficult to pin down until 24-36 hours out. Quite a range of scenarios with placement and timing on the individual GEFS ensembles at hour 120 but eventually they will start to cluster together with similar outcomes as we get closer.

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cyclogent said:
The kuchera maps on pivotalweather are much more reliable for the FV3. There is some potential mid week but its the type of setup that will be very difficult to pin down until 24-36 hours out. Quite a range of scenarios with placement and timing on the individual GEFS ensembles at hour 120 but eventually they will start to cluster together with similar outcomes as we get closer.

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Thanks, yeah there's potential, and still 5 days or so away to go either way..
 
Here it is from SPC


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southwestern Alabama The western Florida Panhandle The eastern part of the Mississippi Sound Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 940 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A broken band of storms will spread eastward from Mississippi to Alabama through the afternoon. Embedded supercells and bowing segments will be capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Selma AL to 10 miles south southwest of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

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SD said:
Isn't going to take a lot to force these 925s down. Its interesting that 2014 is mentioned as a top analog and we had a big wind event on 1/11 that had an 86 mph gust at RDU. That event started the step down to about 4-5 weeks of glory
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Any update?


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accu35 said:
I'M NOT GIVING UP FOR MID WEEK STORM.
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There won't be a whole lot with the mid-week system. By the time the deeper colder air arrives, most of the moisture is gone. It's a cold chasing moisture scenario, which most of the time don't produce much. Some area's may see a dusting, maybe, just maybe up to 1/2". Don't let that snowfall map intimidate you, it is totally, totally inaccurate.
 
Pivotal actually looks surprisingly good though for that storm. Not like those maps that need tweaking, but it gives some love to the NW corner of Alabama.

For the FV3 that is. If we go by most other cases, it's not all that great. Perhaps it wins again though as it's done well at times, however it's on a island by itself right now I believe.
 
1300m said:
I agree. The biggest disconnect I see on this board is not in a specific storm thread, but in pattern threads. The one's who don't get it are looking at each model run in detail, living and dying on 10 day model output, and some do not seem to want to understand what pattern analysis is all about.
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Batman said:
If you watch ESPN's college football game day on Saturday morning and Lee Corso says your team will lose, do you turn off the TV, throw the remote, and not watch the game because you know your team will lose? OP runs outside 5 days and Lee Corso game predictions have a lot in common. They are often dead wrong! Don't worry about them.
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I think people realize the pattern is good for snow, and I know that the models change from outside day 5, and especially 10 days out. It is not complaining about the pattern really. It is more just waiting for that potential to produce. All I am saying is we are still waiting to see something show up on the op runs inside 7 days and actually stick around. That hasn't happened yet, so it is still a waiting game to see if the ensembles are right, and for a storm to show up on the ops and stay around. Maybe that will start to happen next week. Until then, though, we are talking about a bunch of potential with a good team, but still waiting to see if they actually get the win. But it is still early in the game. Next week will start to get down to crunch time.
 
SD said:
Llj is roaring. Convective elements in the line should produce some decent gusts
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Agreed, there's also a little MUCAPE in some of the soundings here right before the line passes over, could see the rationale behind extending the marginal risk just for wind damage into the Carolinas later this evening even if the (or any) low-level nocturnal inversion manages to offset the potential for getting damaging wind gusts down to the surface. Not likely to see widespread damaging gusts, but there's a legitimate non-zero threat for at least isolated ones imo.
 
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