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Pattern Jammin' January

OhV and interior NE look great for snow blitz next couple of weeks. As mentioned cold coming to NA.

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For the SE we look to remain wet.

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Yep and realistically we knew this had to happen first, truly the beginning of that step down process.... just think of the snowpack to our N/NW, systems like this weekends want be marginal then. Welcome winter, better late than never
 
Yep and realistically we knew this had to happen first, truly the beginning of that step down process.... just think of the snowpack to our N/NW, systems like this weekends want be marginal then. Welcome winter, better late than never
If we don't get a quick reversion back to a crappy pattern, that snowfall should remain up there for a while. That could definitely help us down the road. Still would really like to see some semblance of true blocking down the line.
 
yep... were going to have to get a neg nao in some fashion to drive the storm track south....

The NAO is key for our wonderful dear MA and NE friends. We like it but this time of the year, gimme a negative EPO and a trough directly down the Mississippi to the gulf and hand me my damn sled.


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OhV and interior NE look great for snow blitz next couple of weeks. As mentioned cold coming to NA.

View attachment 10688

For the SE we look to remain wet.

View attachment 10689

It's semantics probably but to me we're not in a true pattern change to colder than normal yet. Next week and a half we bounce to cool/warm back and forth. MLK is really the date GEFS locks in on as the true pattern change to colder than normal over the SE. You can see Canada literally open up and the cold flows in. Looks great. Not sure we want the PV in the center of Canada, need more blocking over the top to get it SE Canada.
 

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I know this is out there in la-la land, but it matches with our LR expectations. Check out the developing -NAO and say hello to our little friend in the GOM:

fv3p_z500_mslp_nhem_56.png
 
It's semantics probably but to me we're not in a true pattern change to colder than normal yet. Next week and a half we bounce to cool/warm back and forth. MLK is really the date GEFS locks in on as the true pattern change to colder than normal over the SE. You can see Canada literally open up and the cold flows in. Looks great. Not sure we want the PV in the center of Canada, need more blocking over the top to get it SE Canada.

EPS isn’t as enthused with the deep cold. As you mentioned the PV west of Greenland isn’t good.

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Dropping this bad boy off from the FV3 in fantasy land:

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Looks like a good one, doesn't it? IF this ends up coming true, I'll end up chasing it (probably just going to Lafayette).


Might not be a fantasy after all. The models are all over the 20th to the end of the month with storm chances. I think it's either going to be just bad luck or the models are completely off with the pattern coming up for there not be at least one good storm between the 20th and 31st.
 
EPS isn’t as enthused with the deep cold. As you mentioned the PV west of Greenland isn’t good.

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For areas to the west we will gladly take that PV placement . I love the trough orientation for MBY that you posted above . It really depends on ones location when looking ahead in the LR and seeing the different looks. Certain looks would benefit some areas of the southeast while screwing others .

As nice as it looks I know it will look different on tonight’s runs. I think we will have a true idea of where we are headed by around the middle of next week say Wednesday


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