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Pattern Jammin' January

If euro looks somewhat comparable to the fv3. Maybe consider ignoring gfs


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Can't lie, this is the first time the GEFS long range look concerns me some. It's Hr 384 so perhaps the better pattern just breaks down too fast:

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It definitely breaks down too fast. In fact, I’ll delete my account if that verifies.

I don’t think you should be concerned when the EPS looks like this
06c6c881a4b2ea702829dfdccde5555a.jpg


Also when looking past Day 10; I find 5-day smoothed 500mb anomalies to be better just because it accounts for an overall pattern state.
2117a9d177875013a882104476857df0.jpg


As long as the EPS is showing this, we (Georgia included) are sitting very very nicely.


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It's fun to watch a huge lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex continuously creep southward across North America from initialization thru at least day 8 on this Euro run. We start off on the north shore of Greenland and crash into northern Ontario after day 7. With the proper phasing you're apt to see a huge bomb of negative geopotential height anomalies near the Great Lakes, Ontario, or Quebec in the extended but that's exceptionally fickle and difficult to forecast this far out.
 
Euro north next weekend, miller bs off MA coast, looking at 24 hr panels. Probably ice in cad, insitu damming that look.

Classic carolina split
 
Jon said:
It definitely breaks down too fast. In fact, I’ll delete my account if that verifies.

I don’t think you should be concerned when the EPS looks like this
06c6c881a4b2ea702829dfdccde5555a.jpg


Also when looking past Day 10; I find 5-day smoothed 500mb anomalies to be better just because it accounts for an overall pattern state.
2117a9d177875013a882104476857df0.jpg


As long as the EPS is showing this, we (Georgia included) are sitting very very nicely.


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I agree. Best we have seen all winter. I don’t mind the trough pulling back with the poleward pac ridge connecting -AO.

02B283F9-77BE-4C18-88ED-FA6493824321.png
 
The thing I like right now is that we keep getting closer and closer and we still have a system. Like the midweek system showed the big southeast snow beyond day ten but minimized as we got closer nxt weekend tho seems to get better and better as we go from run to run.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
The thing I like right now is that we keep getting closer and closer and we still have a system. Like the midweek system showed the big southeast snow beyond day ten but minimized as we got closer nxt weekend tho seems to get better and better as we go from run to run.
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I like some of the looks for you and me, but only get interested when they are 3 days out. But, at least there is something to look at....if the wet pattern sticks around. There is one suppressed look that screams goodies for you and me...if it's real, when it's 3 days out.
 
So, we now have 4 OP models on board with a winter storm potential next weekend (or shortly after) It may trend better and better it may not. But, when there are 4 major OP models on board with something, usually it will happen some "shape, way or form."
 
I don’t think next weekend storm is a big one. But 1-3 inches is a good little event and I think that’s what the potential is for 1-3 perhaps 2-4 type event


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Storm5 said:
I’m still trying to figure out why people are so worried about the long range when we have potential over the next 8 days . Who the hell cares about weeks 2,3,4 as we have seen all winter everything showing in the long range does not verify and move forward


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Think the Dec storm was on models 10 days out!? Not impossible to have long range verify!
 
olhausen said:
Any snow of 2 or more inches is a big snow for the south no matter if it’s the upper or Lower south. Although we usually get multiple accumulating snows up here every year, we still have winters that don’t see 2 inches from one storm more often then you’d think.
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For most of Tennesse and North Carolina in general I'd say...
Dusting to 1 is meh.
1 to 2 is a small snow
3 to 5 is a medium snow.
6 to 10 or more is a big snow.
 
cyclogent said:
For most of Tennesse and North Carolina in general I'd say...
Dusting to 1 is meh.
1 to 2 is a small snow
3 to 5 is a medium snow.
6 to 10 or more is a big snow.
Click to expand...

Yeah I’ve lived in Greenville NC and the last few years in Raleigh. Anything 3-4 inches and above for me is “a good snow.”

Basically get the yard that nice smooth look. Anything less up here leaves much to be desired.
 
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