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Pattern Jammin' January

That run has serious potential... wont take much for next weekend to be fun!

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Showmeyourtds said:
Don’t understand what is causing this thing to fizzle
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The GFS is wrong on the western +PNA ridge and location. It’s far too flat, which extends it out east, not allowing energy to dig enough and go neutral in a favorable location.

The Euro, CMC, and FV3 are all in agreement with a taller ridge, which should allow any energy to dig better and turn neutral tilt sooner than the depiction on the GFS

Euro
1ac5dca255e69800d2f8ef60ce9924d2.jpg


CMC
efb2d628cbb0fde5c4ecb8b46f0ba5d6.jpg


FV3
c17168a010e20d88a67b71cfa6ff85e5.jpg



And the GFS, notice the ridge is flatter and extended east, and the energy digs late
ba37ba1235a5fae81f77b36b9ac707de.jpg



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Jon said:
The GFS is wrong on the western +PNA ridge and location. It’s far too flat, which extends it out east, not allowing energy to dig enough and go neutral in a favorable location.

The Euro, CMC, and FV3 are all in agreement with a taller ridge, which should allow any energy to dig better and turn neutral tilt sooner than the depiction on the GFS

Euro
1ac5dca255e69800d2f8ef60ce9924d2.jpg


CMC
efb2d628cbb0fde5c4ecb8b46f0ba5d6.jpg


FV3
c17168a010e20d88a67b71cfa6ff85e5.jpg



And the GFS, notice the ridge is flatter and extended east, and the energy digs late
ba37ba1235a5fae81f77b36b9ac707de.jpg



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Click to expand...

Note that there has been an overall inherent warm bias on the op GFS vs GEFS and EPS. So, this may be related. However, the CDN and I think FV3 ops have a cold bias.

Meanwhile, look at the very impressive -NAO/-AO in the day 9+ 18Z GFS! Snow NC!
 
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cyclogent said:
For most of Tennesse and North Carolina in general I'd say...
Dusting to 1 is meh.
1 to 2 is a small snow
3 to 5 is a medium snow.
6 to 10 or more is a big snow.
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This to me is the problem and reason why everyone is so mad at our southeast weather all of the time.This explanation fits Green Bay Wisconsin’s weather expectations more then it does the southeast.
 
Stormlover said:
your standards are way too high
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Not really, at least in NC the majority of the state gets 1 or 2 snow events a year and despite the low seasonal snowfall compared to the North, snowless winters are rare to near or completely nonexistent depending on where. (For example CLT had never had a completely snowless winter in all of recorded history). Once you go into SC, Georgia, Alabama, ect, snow free winters become a lot more common and that along with the general climatology brings seasonal snow averages down for those areas.

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Here are the FV3 images for the storm ... more potential behind as well I’ll look to see if it shows another storm
 

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2-4 inches of snow in Jackson, Mississippi or Columbia, SC would probably easily warrant a warning. In NC/TN depending on the part of state, it would either warrant a warning or an advisory.

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If that map is accurate, then just about the whole state of Alabama is covered with snow, so you could include parts of Alabama with a decent storm as well. I am looking forward to the higher resolution maps to come out.
 
Storm5 said:
FV3 bringing the arctic . 1050 high lol
fbc56eb6cb6f48b4ddbda9a835d74515.jpg



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If you look back at the last few days of runs, you'd see that this is the coldest run at hour 120 with the PV furthest south. This may mean it will trend even further south on future runs since it is still trending south. But it tends to have a cold bias. Tricky.

Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS is the 2nd coldest of all GFS runs the last few days at least for the 15 day period over the US as a whole. The only colder run was yesterday's extremely cold 18Z.
 
cyclogent said:
Warning crieria here is 4 inches in 12 hours or 6 inches in 24 hours. And as much as the local news hypes up winter weather, a 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 event is never called "big".
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2 inches here and I'm not far from you...but just because it isn't officially a winter storm warning event doesn't mean it isn't a big deal...anyway, enough of this junk
 
rgem_asnow_seus_34.png

I might be able to put T down for snowfall totals tomorrow!
 
Storm5 said:
The gefs and eps are starting to get excited about next weekend as both ensemble sets greatly improved


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Charlie, if we can develop a -nao true greenland block, i know we will be in business. West based is what i mean. We really have yet to see that because the cold is in and its out.
 
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