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Pattern Jammin' January

Kylo said:
Holy crap. Even we can’t mess this up.

View attachment 10732View attachment 10733
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That is the period I'm keying on for a potential major winter storm for parts of the SE per the EPS. 1/24-5. Looking back at history for ATL, this is the heart of the period that has had the highest concentration of major winter storms during weak to low end moderate El Ninos since 1876.
 
It’s easy to see on euro and fv3 that our “pattern change” really revolves around the 20th system. That’s “only” 9 days out which bodes well for the Up coming pattern.
 
This is probably banter material, but with recent posts in lala land showing the coming pattern filp and potential for board wide winter fun. I have had Sunday Feb 3rd circled for a while, because it is only Atlanta's luck to be shutdown on a superbowl weekend with winter storm. ;-)
 
GaWx said:
That is the period I'm keying on for a potential major winter storm for parts of the SE per the EPS. 1/24-5. Looking back at history for ATL, this is the heart of the period that has had the highest concentration of major winter storms during weak to low end moderate El Ninos since 1876.
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I like this look!

14-km EPS Global undefined undefined 342.png

14-km EPS Global North America 850 hPa Temp Anom 342.png
 
53rdWRS said:
This is probably banter material, but with recent posts in lala land showing the coming pattern filp and potential for board wide winter fun. I have had Sunday Feb 3rd circled for a while, because it is only Atlanta's luck to be shutdown on a superbowl weekend with winter storm. ;-)
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Good catch, yea Atlanta has great luck weather wise when it comes to hosting sports events, Tornados, ice storms and floods, let’s add a blizzard to this list.


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Eps day 10 and 15
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fed26e5292b3da91f9e7540c342c1ec4.jpg



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Brick Tamland said:
Did we have a -NAO with the December storm?
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No, it was +1.066 the day of the storm and over +1.5 the prior two days. It was strongly negative 2 weeks earlier.

2018 11 18 0.168
2018 11 19 -0.274
2018 11 20 -0.826
2018 11 21 -0.726
2018 11 22 -0.348
2018 11 23 -0.369
2018 11 24 -0.804
2018 11 25 -1.373
2018 11 26 -1.404
2018 11 27 -1.144
2018 11 28 -0.872
2018 11 29 -0.440
2018 11 30 -0.133
2018 12 1 0.126
2018 12 2 0.469
2018 12 3 0.740
2018 12 4 0.586
2018 12 5 0.795
2018 12 6 1.294
2018 12 7 1.539
2018 12 8 1.519
2018 12 9 1.066

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii
 
Like we have now, MJO forecast consensus suggests the MJO will be in or near the favorable weak left side (either inside the left side or just outside the left side of the COD) 1/24-5, the suggested threat time per the EPS. Combine that with a projected deep -AO, -NAO, +PNA, and weak El Nino background state and the 7s may all be aligned.
 
GaWx said:
Like we have now, MJO forecast consensus suggests the MJO will be in or near the favorable weak left side (either inside the left side or just outside the left side of the COD) 1/24-5, the suggested threat time per the EPS. Combine that with a projected deep -AO, -NAO, +PNA, and weak El Nino background state and the 7s may all be aligned.
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Larry,
Been holed up but just a quick glance is very, shall we say, uplifting ...
Phil
 
You can see by day 7 on this afternoon’s GFS, the big wind-up for the well advertised pattern change is in progress with extremely cold air dropping down the spine of the Canadian Rockies & towards the northern US. This storm on the 20th will probably interact with this airmass and usher in considerably cooler air east of the Rockies in its wake.
 
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