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Pattern Jammin' January

FV3 continued to have the ridge placement where we want it. That’s extremely close to a large snow for the SE. Old GFS is the clear outlier here, and that has an affect on the ensemble mean.


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Fv3 looks similar to...dare I say it Jan 2000

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Nah that's the first. Here's the second.
fv3p_ref_frzn_us_46.png
 
The gefs and eps are starting to get excited about next weekend as both ensemble sets greatly improved


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This is totally banter so I expected to be moved but I’m so stoked about the 8-10 days, from tonight with the possible flurry action to the potential bigger stuff next weekend.
 
Wow, the GEFS mean really looks great. Funny that a lot of folks are saying the GFS op is the outlier. GFS and ensembles seem night and day from each other. Great to hear the FV3 looks good, though. It really did well with the December storm.
 
I’m back in the light.... really watching that storm next weekend for us in the Carolinas, I wouldn’t mind it becoming slightly more amped for more moisture but not to amped where WAA becomes a problem even if it’s off the coast
 
So why would the GFS op be so different from the ensembles?

And just trying to catch up after coaching three basketball games today, but are the ops actually showing any winter storms for NC next week?
 
So why would the GFS op be so different from the ensembles?

And just trying to catch up after coaching three basketball games today, but are the ops actually showing any winter storms for NC next week?
Storm5 any knowledge on this? You seem to know a lot
 
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So why would the GFS op be so different from the ensembles?

And just trying to catch up after coaching three basketball games today, but are the ops actually showing any winter storms for NC next week?

Op can be different from ensembles for various reasons... is there a feature you’re asking about that’s different on the ensembles? Are you talking about a specific storm, temps, ridge?


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And there’s a threat popping up for the Carolinas next weekend brick, although I can’t really call it a threat since it’s pretty much 7+ days, I would quote but I’m to lazy lol
 
I think next weekend storm will be a light one. With limited moisture it be the beginning of February that could be big


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Op can be different from ensembles for various reasons... is there a feature you’re asking about that’s different on the ensembles? Are you talking about a specific storm, temps, ridge?


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Well, really with the solution. The ensembles continue to show good snow amounts here, but the ops still seem to be all about potential and not showing any actual snow here yet. Just wondering how they could be so different. We are getting inside a week now, but not really anything showing on the op snow amount maps.
 
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