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Pattern Jammin' January

SD said:
Isn't going to take a lot to force these 925s down. Its interesting that 2014 is mentioned as a top analog and we had a big wind event on 1/11 that had an 86 mph gust at RDU. That event started the step down to about 4-5 weeks of glory
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I remember that well. There was a lot of tree damage on Hwy 98 not too far from me.
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Webberweather53 said:
Lol I'm not surprised, your layout is really nice btw. Yeah I saved this image at the time and it's one of the cleanest shots I could get of the LES band

Here's an animation of the band (also so others here can enjoy this extremely rare event).

Looks like some virga might have developed in far northern Wake County around 9z-10z from training over Lake Kerr and Falls Lake so you were very close to getting a few flakes but light-moderate snow fell for about 2-3 hours in parts of Nash & Wilson counties!

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We had a real cold outbreak in Jan of 96, there was Lake Effect off of Lake Hartwell
 
Storm5 said:
I think this is important to remember . Sure everyone wants a big storm with a foot of snow . But a few inches followed by days of brutal cold can be far more impactful and in fact is my preference when it comes to winter storms


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No doubt and this isn’t a dig at anyone, but a 1-3 or 2-4” snow followed by a super flash freeze would be super nasty for everyone because I would imagine we will hear the “ ground temps are too warm or it’s been warm lately no travel issues expected “.
 
Tarheel1 said:
We had a real cold outbreak in Jan of 96, there was Lake Effect off of Lake Hartwell
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Suprised it hasnt happened more with that lake just because topography around it should give quicker buoyancy to the warm ,moist air. There probably has been a case of it at fontana lake as well before. Envy the LES residents .
 
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PV headed NE by 180 . Gonna be some wild swings over the coming days as models try and find the correct placement with the PV .
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It’s a cold run still but I don’t think we get 0s on this run. As far south


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lol this run is a good indicator of how much the GFS can flip. Energy that was entering in California on the 18z instead enters from British Columbia this time.
 
So what has happened today for the models to start showing more agreement and consistency with the scope and intensity of this coming Polar blast? What factors changed from 24 hours ago where every 6 hours, a different scenario was almost guaranteed. I know @Webberweather53, @1300m , @GaWx and others have been telling us this for seemingly weeks now but the models are figuring it out, just now. Why? Was it the stratospheric warming episode, the faster moving MJO (forecasted to go near COD 8) or some other variable?
 
DixieBlizzard said:
So what has happened today for the models to start showing more agreement and consistency with the scope and intensity of this coming Polar blast? What factors changed from 24 hours ago where every 6 hours, a different scenario was almost guaranteed. I know @Webberweather53, @1300, @GaWx and others have been telling us this for seemingly weeks now but the models are figuring it out, just now. Why? Was it the stratospheric warming episode, the faster moving MJO (forecasted to go near COD 8) or some other variable?
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For the most part the models are slowly getting the timing right. We are getting out of the long range and finally getting in the mid range. Before the models were having a hard time figuring out the the pattern change. Now they seem to have the pattern change and are able to start on some details. Still a ways out but they have stopped "kicking the can down the road". Lot will change but as we get closer the more details they can pickup on. Again those knowing more please correct me if I am missing it.
 
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Stormlover said:
the euro has had two consistent runs in a row showing a big snow
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That doesn’t mean a thing in this pattern. I seen where the GFS have it 3 or 4 runs then flip. I am not hugging no models until it’s with 5 days. I do hope the euro stays course.
 
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