• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

whatalife said:
Glad to see no one saw the 12z GFS. It just dumped Tony’s sleet in my backyard.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
You mean this? Shhhhh..... I won't tell anyone

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_42.png
 
The cold on the fantasy land range on the GFS is impressive.
 

Attachments

  • D7F75DE8-4A0C-40DA-AA0E-A2B980F146AD.png
    D7F75DE8-4A0C-40DA-AA0E-A2B980F146AD.png
    139.1 KB · Views: 43
The signal for something has been there on the models for next weekend or so. The time frame is still too far out. So, like always, anything is possible.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm sorry but this is compete bullcrap aside from the fact we're getting a nickel/dime storm in arguably the transition period to a cooler pattern, it's pretty obvious things are changing in the extended period with a North Pac high throwing the coldest air relative to normal into North America starting next week.

View attachment 10549
Click to expand...

I agree, the pattern is a changing to the cooler side of things. I'm just waiting for the well below normal air to get into the southeast. Doesn't do me much good in Canada, lol. I'm just being impatient. I'm sure it'll happen but I'm not sure it's going to happen in January. Don't get me wrong I think it's cold enough to perhaps be in the game for a storm if things line up just right, but I like our odds more if we get some really cold air down here in mby.

1547141710768.png
 
Storm5 said:
Damn the gefs is brutal in the long range . As Webber said , the wait is over the change is happening
8412bf9d6d7c5c318cd672a7d81e05c7.jpg
062b22334483554049d533f57bb7e16f.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The GEFS has a -EPO bias inbthe extended but there will in fact be a -EPO next week and we’re fixing to move into the favored Niño window for cold and snow in the SE US (late Jan-early Mar) makes this forecast a bit more believable for now
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm sorry but this is compete bullcrap aside from the fact we're getting a nickel/dime storm in arguably the transition period to a cooler pattern, it's pretty obvious things are changing in the extended period with a North Pac high throwing the coldest air relative to normal into North America starting next week.

View attachment 10549
Click to expand...

Webb,
What do you make about the reason for unusually strong cold bias not just from GEFS but also from EPS (although EPS cold bias not as bad as GEFS)? Also, do you hesitate to believe the intensity of cold because of the cold bias or do you think the cold bias will finally abate now that W Pac convection is finally starting to weaken out in time on the EPS? Are the bias and W Pac convection connected?

Check this out from Radiant this morning about really bad 11-15 day model cold bias:

"Models Have Been Cold Biased In 11-15 Day

The cold biases of the past few weeks in the 6-10 Day period were examined in yesterday’s report. Here, we do the same analysis for the 11-15 Day period. The table on left highlights the average biases observed over the past 30 Days for select locales. Notably, most models have been cold biased. The only exception has been the often poorest and most volatile GFS OP model in parts of the Rockies and Plains. Both the GFS EN and Euro EN models have been cold biased in each location examined in this discussion, and the same can be said about our forecast. The GFS EN has been the most biased in this regard, being too cold on average by a large 10° in Minneapolis and by more than 8° in St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, Washington DC and Atlanta. The maps on left are from this morning’s 0z model runs and what they would look like with consideration to the past 30 Days of verification. The bias corrected Euro notably holds onto a warmer pattern."

-----------------------------
And from Radiant yesterday about the 6-10 day model cold bias:

"Models Cold Biased In Recent Weeks

Models have carried a significant cold bias over recent weeks, and the table within this discussion highlights the average bias of the past 30 Days for select locales in the 6-10 Day period. The GFS EN has been particularly poor in its Midwest projections, averaging too cold by 7.6° in Minneapolis, 6.1° in St. Louis and 6.3° in Chicago. The Euro EN has also been too cold, off by 4.2° in Minneapolis, 2.9° in St. Louis and 3.0° in Chicago. Larger cold biases are seen among all models from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic as well."
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Webb,
What do you make about the reason for unusually strong cold bias not just from GEFS but also from EPS (although EPS cold bias not as bad as GEFS)? Also, do you hesitate to believe the intensity of cold because of the cold bias or do you think the cold bias will finally abate now that W Pac convection is finally starting to weaken out in time on the EPS? Are the bias and W Pac convection connected?

Check this out from Radiant this morning about really bad 11-15 day model cold bias:

"Models Have Been Cold Biased In 11-15 Day

The cold biases of the past few weeks in the 6-10 Day period were examined in yesterday’s report. Here, we do the same analysis for the 11-15 Day period. The table on left highlights the average biases observed over the past 30 Days for select locales. Notably, most models have been cold biased. The only exception has been the often poorest and most volatile GFS OP model in parts of the Rockies and Plains. Both the GFS EN and Euro EN models have been cold biased in each location examined in this discussion, and the same can be said about our forecast. The GFS EN has been the most biased in this regard, being too cold on average by a large 10° in Minneapolis and by more than 8° in St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, Washington DC and Atlanta. The maps on left are from this morning’s 0z model runs and what they would look like with consideration to the past 30 Days of verification. The bias corrected Euro notably holds onto a warmer pattern."

-----------------------------
And from Radiant yesterday about the 6-10 day model cold bias:

Models Cold Biased In Recent Weeks

Models have carried a significant cold bias over recent weeks, and the table within this discussion highlights the average bias of the past 30 Days for select locales in the 6-10 Day period. The GFS EN has been particularly poor in its Midwest projections, averaging too cold by 7.6° in Minneapolis, 6.1° in St. Louis and 6.3° in Chicago. The Euro EN has also been too cold, off by 4.2° in Minneapolis, 2.9° in St. Louis and 3.0° in Chicago. Larger cold biases are seen among all models from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic as well.
Click to expand...
I’ve already discussed briefly why I thought we’d get a -EPO next week and potentially beyond as tropical forcing enters the Indian Ocean and we enter a more favorable portion of the AAM/MT cycle plus the strat warm event and getting into favorable niño climo as we approacj February. There were legitimate reasons not to get too sucked into the ridiculously cold forecasts from the models in the extended range a while back because the pattern just wasn’t that favorable. I’m well aware of the biases in the previous period but a large component of the bias is state dependent and it’s apples-oranges because the pattern is much different and this is exactly what Ive been touting would indeed happen later in January
 
Brick Tamland said:
The 20th-22nd period has been showing up with strong signals for a few days, too. I'm not too disappointed on this weekend's storm being mostly a dud here, because it is just opening the door for the pattern change and for better storm chances to come.
Click to expand...
Looks like we have to sacrifice this one... but like you said. ... door is fixing to open big time for us ...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top