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Pattern Jammin' January

1300m said:
Very true! Although taken verbatim that would probably favor a very suppressed storm track at D10 and beyond (nonsense to be analyzing haha).
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That's close to the type of look @pcbjr needs! Have to believe that this is overdone and that the reality will end up being that there is a storm or precipitation event somewhere. But like you said, analyzing D10 is essentially worthless. Cool to see, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's close to the type of look @pcbjr needs! Have to believe that this is overdone and that the reality will end up being that there is a storm or precipitation event somewhere. But like you said, analyzing D10 is essentially worthless. Cool to see, though.
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I think the main takeaway is with the Euro, CMC and at times GFS/FV3 dumping extreme Arctic cold into the Eastern US that there is a good signal for extreme, possibly record breaking cold for many in the SE.
 
cyclogent said:
I'll go ahead and say it. A while back in the thread Brick had a concern about the WAR and thus the pattern change getting pushed back again, and again. Early this week it looked like mid next week would be gold, now its not. Well, props to Brick.
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Current pattern:
ecmwf_z500a_namer_1.png


Forecast pattern next Wednesday:
ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png


Forecast pattern next Friday (somethin' chaaaanged!):
ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png


We may be panning for pure gold by next weekend.
 
Storm5 said:
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How would this only produce one inch around Gsp. And Atlanta possibly seeing very little. Snow with temps in teens or low 20s. It be high ratios snow I think more then 1 inch would accumulate


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cyclogent said:
I'll go ahead and say it. A while back in the thread Brick had a concern about the WAR and thus the pattern change getting pushed back again, and again. Early this week it looked like mid next week would be gold, now its not. Well, props to Brick.
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The pattern is already transitioning right now. Just because it's not a train of winter storms doesn't mean the pattern hasn't or isn't changing.
 
Jessy89 said:
How would this only produce one inch around Gsp. And Atlanta possibly seeing very little. Snow with temps in teens or low 20s. It be high ratios snow I think more then 1 inch would accumulate


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It’s irrelevant this far out . Got watch the trends to see if we are really onto something or not .


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cyclogent said:
I'll go ahead and say it. A while back in the thread Brick had a concern about the WAR and thus the pattern change getting pushed back again, and again. Early this week it looked like mid next week would be gold, now its not. Well, props to Brick.
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Middle of next week is still the middle of next week... that system still looks like it could give part of the board a good little snow. Then more of the board gets in on the action from there on out. We’re not going to get a boardwide storm every time there is a storm. Middle of next week is still gold for some on the board. Mid next week is the start .. definitly not the end
 
olhausen said:
The thing is though is that it is showing winter storms just not in their area.
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Yeah but the good news is I think that’ll change quickly as this new pattern settles in. The EPS and GEFS modeled 5h pattern is promising and that’s all we can ask for. Get the cold here and then work out the details as storms pop up.
 
Storm5 said:
The eps control is nuts through day 9 and the end of the run
932636434067ba47da744dbf66404d13.jpg


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I don’t know if this is the right thread to ask but are the mountains in North Ga the reason East Georgia always seems to see less snow? Feels like a GOM Low is the only way we see higher totals.


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Ensembles look nice on the Euro, along with the GFS. Hard not to think something is coming down the road soon.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I don’t know if this is the right thread to ask but are the mountains in North Ga the reason East Georgia always seems to see less snow? Feels like a GOM Low is the only way we see higher totals.


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I think the general downsloping does have a lot to do with it. The mountains hold back the cold somewhat and the downslope modifies. I know in my area we miss some of the stronger NW flow events because of lookout mountain. If we have a more northerly fetch we can actually squeeze some decent showers out of it.
 
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