Storm5
Member
That FV3 track is great for some of us
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Almost every 12z GEFS members has something between 1/26 to 1/28. Lot of activity after 1/25 in general. Still a long way to go, but that's the first period to watch IMO.I think the possible wave behind the 24-25th wave is the first one that could have the potential to be a legit winter storm for the southern U.S. if it can continue to dig further southwest. AND with a massive snowpack to our north in step-down fashion, it only makes since for the southeast to get in on the next one.
View attachment 11719
BOTH the op GFS and the FV3 are trying hard on that one. The Euro is much further east and progressive with it, but at this range it's the one to watch. I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z GEFS doesn't have some members with something in the 26th to 28th window.
I know these weather boards tend to thrive on hyperbole but how can anyone ever say 100 percent won't verify to anything? You just never know....
The way this winter has gone, Mobile will probably see snow flakes before I do!
I was thinking the same thing. Also wondering why someone would say that the cold showing up on some models (10 degrees above 0 in ATL area) would not actually happen. If everyone looks at the building evidence pointing to reality of the pattern that is developing, you can see that there is great potential for the SE in the next 6 weeks. We have to forget about what may happen in MBY this weekend or next week on each model run and look at what is happening around the globe and how it is looking like it will effect the actual weather in the SE possibly into early March. I will gladly take where we are headed knowing that MBY still may not get 1".
I will remind folks that less than 2 weeks ago some were punting January and there was even a discussion of whether or not ATL would get below freezing again this winter. A discussion that was solved in one week.
??wow, I'm late, but just saw the 0Z Euro for my area...wowsa View attachment 11732
something that beautiful is worthy of being shown again..I"m sure I'm not the only one that missed it ;-)????
Was posted like 3 pages back. ??
??
![]()
Great post. Here's some mirage snow with that 26-28 system. So your prediction is no snow the rest of winter? Because I'm holding you to it and will repost if after every snow we get the rest of the winter.Well, that snow for NC didn't last long on the GFS. I guess we're looking to the start of February now. I know folks say watch the ensembles and the 26th to 28th, which is 7 to 10 days away again. Just seems now we're always looking at something 7 to 10 days out, and nothing is showing up on the models for NC inside 7 days still. We've seen this before where the models show storms but then they go away when we get about a week out. It would be nice to have some consistency and something show up inside 7 days that actually lasts for more than one run to believe this pattern is going to produce anything here. Right now it just looks like a mirage.
I wouldn’t be surprise if we trend better with that energy as well.Almost every 12z GEFS members has something between 1/26 to 1/28. Lot of activity after 1/25 in general. Still a long way to go, but that's the first period to watch IMO.
View attachment 11729
View attachment 11730
View attachment 11731
Great post. Here's some mirage snow with that 26-28 system. So your prediction is no snow the rest of winter? Because I'm holding you to it and will repost if after every snow we get the rest of the winter.
![]()
It's not a legit threat - it's a period with potential. Had you rather me or others just not point out the periods to watch and what to look for? Because I can definitely go away and not post that if it's causing a problem.Nope, just saying it is hard to believe we have a legit threat here without some consistency inside 7 days on the op runs, too. Hopefully, that look will continue for the 26th to 28th time frame. But right now I personally feel we're kicking the can down the road at this moment.
Here's a recent quote from Mr. Tamland.It's not a legit threat - it's a period with potential. Had you rather me or others just not point out the periods to watch and what to look for? Because I can definitely go away and not post that if it's causing a problem.
It's not a legit threat - it's a period with potential. Had you rather me or others just not point out the periods to watch and what to look for? Because I can definitely go away and not post that if it's causing a problem.
Good looking GEFS snow mean:
View attachment 11737
@Brick Tamland and @1300m I don’t care you guys fighting. Just take it to the this forum.
https://www.southernwx.com/communit...-worse-than-you-think.509/page-33#post-144763
Fight Night. ???????
It’s ok. Just trying to keep this room on topic.Sorry, I wasn't trying to fight with anyone. The first post that 1300 replied to was not a direct response to him.
Good looking GEFS snow mean:
View attachment 11737
With such cold air on the way, this looks like the type of scenario where a storm pops up on the models out of nowhere.Nope, just saying it is hard to believe we have a legit threat here without some consistency inside 7 days on the op runs, too. Hopefully, that look will continue for the 26th to 28th time frame. But right now I personally feel we're kicking the can down the road at this moment.
Exactly, everything seems to be going to how both of us thought it would in a general sense anyways, the period after the 25th-26th has been one we’ve both highlighted for quite some time. We’re finally reaching the part of the winter where it actually helps to be in an El NiñoThe reason why the post-1/25 period is the time to watch is because that is when the western ridge/PV configuration has moved into position. We have a legitimate feed of cold air throughout the column with a deep full-latitude trough over the eastern U.S. and additional energy diving down the ridge/trough in a potentially far enough west position for coastal cyclogenesis, and the possibility of upper jet support.
![]()
I'm tickled we have an opportunity still in January. It likely only gets better in the 10-14 days after this period.Exactly, everything seems to be going to how both of us thought it would in a general sense anyways, the period after the 25th-26th has been one we’ve both highlighted for quite some time. We’re finally reaching the part of the winter where it actually helps to be in an El Niño
By all indications, we are moving things forward into what looks like (and hopefully continues to look like) a lengthy stretch favorable for winter weather. I hope everyone understands that doesn't guarantee anything. I think most do.The reason why the post-1/25 period is the time to watch is because that is when the western ridge/PV configuration has moved into position. We have a legitimate feed of cold air throughout the column with a deep full-latitude trough over the eastern U.S. and additional energy diving down the ridge/trough in a potentially far enough west position for coastal cyclogenesis, and the possibility of upper jet support.
![]()
By all indications, we are moving things forward into what looks like (and hopefully continues to look like) a lengthy stretch favorable for winter weather. I hope everyone understands that doesn't guarantee anything. I think most do.
So, if it's hard for someone to get excited unless the operational GFS shows a snowstorm for 3 runs in a row, then fabulous. Don't get excited until you see that. For everyone else, hopefully, in this thread, we can look at windows favorable for winter weather to occur, talk about those, and look to see if models start bringing the ingredients together.
Someone has said many times that winter storms in the southeast don't usually pop up on models until inside of a few days. Whether or not that's true, if you believe that to be the case, then fretting about not seeing snow on the D7+ GFS doesn't make a lot of sense. The pattern appears to be conducive for winter weather. Let's see what happens.
not looking as good so far..maybe it will change. Edit..nothing like the snow the 0Z brought in here..slower, with more rain12z euro gonna have a robust wave this run
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tons of potential at H5 and copious cold air to work with.As expected, here comes a huge chunk of the polar vortex sliding towards the United States, both the North Pac & North Atlantic are becoming blocked by this point in time..
View attachment 11746