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Pattern Jammin' January

1300m said:
I think the possible wave behind the 24-25th wave is the first one that could have the potential to be a legit winter storm for the southern U.S. if it can continue to dig further southwest. AND with a massive snowpack to our north in step-down fashion, it only makes since for the southeast to get in on the next one.

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BOTH the op GFS and the FV3 are trying hard on that one. The Euro is much further east and progressive with it, but at this range it's the one to watch. I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z GEFS doesn't have some members with something in the 26th to 28th window.
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Almost every 12z GEFS members has something between 1/26 to 1/28. Lot of activity after 1/25 in general. Still a long way to go, but that's the first period to watch IMO.

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DixieBlizzard said:
I know these weather boards tend to thrive on hyperbole but how can anyone ever say 100 percent won't verify to anything? You just never know....

The way this winter has gone, Mobile will probably see snow flakes before I do!
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I was thinking the same thing. Also wondering why someone would say that the cold showing up on some models (10 degrees above 0 in ATL area) would not actually happen. If everyone looks at the building evidence pointing to reality of the pattern that is developing, you can see that there is great potential for the SE in the next 6 weeks. We have to forget about what may happen in MBY this weekend or next week on each model run and look at what is happening around the globe and how it is looking like it will effect the actual weather in the SE possibly into early March. I will gladly take where we are headed knowing that MBY still may not get 1".

I will remind folks that less than 2 weeks ago some were punting January and there was even a discussion of whether or not ATL would get below freezing again this winter. A discussion that was solved in one week.
 
Batman said:
I was thinking the same thing. Also wondering why someone would say that the cold showing up on some models (10 degrees above 0 in ATL area) would not actually happen. If everyone looks at the building evidence pointing to reality of the pattern that is developing, you can see that there is great potential for the SE in the next 6 weeks. We have to forget about what may happen in MBY this weekend or next week on each model run and look at what is happening around the globe and how it is looking like it will effect the actual weather in the SE possibly into early March. I will gladly take where we are headed knowing that MBY still may not get 1".

I will remind folks that less than 2 weeks ago some were punting January and there was even a discussion of whether or not ATL would get below freezing again this winter. A discussion that was solved in one week.
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I hate to go down this hole (and if this is moved to banter, I get it), but some are too fixated on global warming when the reality IMO is easy. We are slowly warming, but it's not crazy type stuff like "Will Atlanta get another freeze again this winter?"

It's that type stuff that makes me shake my head when I'm at a warmer place. I've already recently had 6 more freezes in an 8 day period since that claim SE of Atlanta.
 
Well, that snow for NC didn't last long on the GFS. I guess we're looking to the start of February now. I know folks say watch the ensembles and the 26th to 28th, which is 7 to 10 days away again. Just seems now we're always looking at something 7 to 10 days out, and nothing is showing up on the models for NC inside 7 days still. We've seen this before where the models show storms but then they go away when we get about a week out. It would be nice to have some consistency and something show up inside 7 days that actually lasts for more than one run to believe this pattern is going to produce anything here. Right now it just looks like a mirage.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, that snow for NC didn't last long on the GFS. I guess we're looking to the start of February now. I know folks say watch the ensembles and the 26th to 28th, which is 7 to 10 days away again. Just seems now we're always looking at something 7 to 10 days out, and nothing is showing up on the models for NC inside 7 days still. We've seen this before where the models show storms but then they go away when we get about a week out. It would be nice to have some consistency and something show up inside 7 days that actually lasts for more than one run to believe this pattern is going to produce anything here. Right now it just looks like a mirage.
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Great post. Here's some mirage snow with that 26-28 system. So your prediction is no snow the rest of winter? Because I'm holding you to it and will repost if after every snow we get the rest of the winter.

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1300m said:
Great post. Here's some mirage snow with that 26-28 system. So your prediction is no snow the rest of winter? Because I'm holding you to it and will repost if after every snow we get the rest of the winter.

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Nope, just saying it is hard to believe we have a legit threat here without some consistency inside 7 days on the op runs, too. Hopefully, that look will continue for the 26th to 28th time frame. But right now I personally feel we're kicking the can down the road at this moment.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Nope, just saying it is hard to believe we have a legit threat here without some consistency inside 7 days on the op runs, too. Hopefully, that look will continue for the 26th to 28th time frame. But right now I personally feel we're kicking the can down the road at this moment.
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It's not a legit threat - it's a period with potential. Had you rather me or others just not point out the periods to watch and what to look for? Because I can definitely go away and not post that if it's causing a problem.
 
1300m said:
It's not a legit threat - it's a period with potential. Had you rather me or others just not point out the periods to watch and what to look for? Because I can definitely go away and not post that if it's causing a problem.
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Here's a recent quote from Mr. Tamland.

I don't care what the pattern is if it doesn't produce winter storms for me.


That should tell you about all you need to know.
 
1300m said:
It's not a legit threat - it's a period with potential. Had you rather me or others just not point out the periods to watch and what to look for? Because I can definitely go away and not post that if it's causing a problem.
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No, and not sure why you are taking it personally. I am just commenting on what I have seen and posting my own personal thoughts on things. I agree the potential is great, but it would be nice to have consistency on the model runs inside 7 days. Until then, it's just hard for me to get excited about anything. But I am not trying to complain or whine about it. Just waiting and seeing what happens, but those are just my thoughts on things as they sit at this very moment.
 
The reason why the post-1/25 period is the time to watch is because that is when the western ridge/PV configuration has moved into position. We have a legitimate feed of cold air throughout the column with a deep full-latitude trough over the eastern U.S. and additional energy diving down the ridge/trough in a potentially far enough west position for coastal cyclogenesis, and the possibility of upper jet support.

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Brick Tamland said:
Nope, just saying it is hard to believe we have a legit threat here without some consistency inside 7 days on the op runs, too. Hopefully, that look will continue for the 26th to 28th time frame. But right now I personally feel we're kicking the can down the road at this moment.
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With such cold air on the way, this looks like the type of scenario where a storm pops up on the models out of nowhere.
 
1300m said:
The reason why the post-1/25 period is the time to watch is because that is when the western ridge/PV configuration has moved into position. We have a legitimate feed of cold air throughout the column with a deep full-latitude trough over the eastern U.S. and additional energy diving down the ridge/trough in a potentially far enough west position for coastal cyclogenesis, and the possibility of upper jet support.

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Exactly, everything seems to be going to how both of us thought it would in a general sense anyways, the period after the 25th-26th has been one we’ve both highlighted for quite some time. We’re finally reaching the part of the winter where it actually helps to be in an El Niño
 
Webberweather53 said:
Exactly, everything seems to be going to how both of us thought it would in a general sense anyways, the period after the 25th-26th has been one we’ve both highlighted for quite some time. We’re finally reaching the part of the winter where it actually helps to be in an El Niño
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I'm tickled we have an opportunity still in January. It likely only gets better in the 10-14 days after this period.
 
1300m said:
The reason why the post-1/25 period is the time to watch is because that is when the western ridge/PV configuration has moved into position. We have a legitimate feed of cold air throughout the column with a deep full-latitude trough over the eastern U.S. and additional energy diving down the ridge/trough in a potentially far enough west position for coastal cyclogenesis, and the possibility of upper jet support.

fv3p_z500a_nhem_31.png
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By all indications, we are moving things forward into what looks like (and hopefully continues to look like) a lengthy stretch favorable for winter weather. I hope everyone understands that doesn't guarantee anything. I think most do.

So, if it's hard for someone to get excited unless the operational GFS shows a snowstorm for 3 runs in a row, then fabulous. Don't get excited until you see that. For everyone else, hopefully, in this thread, we can look at windows favorable for winter weather to occur, talk about those, and look to see if models start bringing the ingredients together.

Someone has said many times that winter storms in the southeast don't usually pop up on models until inside of a few days. Whether or not that's true, if you believe that to be the case, then fretting about not seeing snow on the D7+ GFS doesn't make a lot of sense. The upcoming pattern appears to be conducive for winter weather. Let's see what happens.
 
Right now i would say this storm favors areas to the west and north of NC/SC. The GEFS is showing a track that runs inland and the FV3 is as well. The FV3 is incredibly good at picking up the track of LP's in the 5-7 day range and has been remarkably consistent with what it's shown for this wave over the past few runs. Still time for things to change but right now these are the areas favored imo.
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Rain Cold said:
By all indications, we are moving things forward into what looks like (and hopefully continues to look like) a lengthy stretch favorable for winter weather. I hope everyone understands that doesn't guarantee anything. I think most do.

So, if it's hard for someone to get excited unless the operational GFS shows a snowstorm for 3 runs in a row, then fabulous. Don't get excited until you see that. For everyone else, hopefully, in this thread, we can look at windows favorable for winter weather to occur, talk about those, and look to see if models start bringing the ingredients together.

Someone has said many times that winter storms in the southeast don't usually pop up on models until inside of a few days. Whether or not that's true, if you believe that to be the case, then fretting about not seeing snow on the D7+ GFS doesn't make a lot of sense. The pattern appears to be conducive for winter weather. Let's see what happens.
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If the Fv3 is anywhere close to reality for this particular window, this is the kind of pattern imo where I'd most likely anticipate an anafront-type/overrunning event wherein a weak surface trough or area of low pressure along a frontal boundary throws moisture back over top the cold air being incessantly fed southward by this big SE Canada vortex sort of like January 28-29 2014 et al. If we can get a nice -NAO going then said surface trough/low would have more time to intensify and turn poleward near the Atlantic coast.
 
The way I see it the western south east is in play. That 6z gfs was a mirage. February will hopefully give everyone else something we see


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Of note the 12z UK favors a cutter and the Euro does as well. This setup is extremely sensitive to small changes but I would say the 23-24th could be a nice winter storm for some parts of the south like Alabama and Mississippi.
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I'm looking over the 12z GFS and there's so much energy flying around after 1/22. Anything is possible at this point, and the models are probably not going to be that consistent because there's so much going on up at H5. A much greater area of the southeast could see a significant winter storm any time after 1/22. Who knows when exactly it will happen. But, I do think something big is going to happen sooner or later.
 
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